Every story, newest first — what happened, and what it did to the prices.
Matches through the lens of the lines that priced them.
Torres in the 105th, Enzo sent off late, one goal conceded all tournament. What the closing +115 / +200 / +285 actually said — and which tickets cashed.
Read → ⚽ Match Analysis · July 19, 2026The pre-match read: Spain +115 in 90, -150 to lift; the ~33% draw as the quiet story; the extra-time premium. It all happened.
Read → ⚽ Analysis · July 17, 2026Spain 2-0 France, Argentina 2-1 England — updated odds, implied probabilities, and what a 13-game winning streak bought on Sunday.
Read →What money on Polymarket and Kalshi is saying about the world.
A record $4.25B winner market, the England gap case study, and a final priced in stereo: 59¢ resolved Yes.
Read → 🌍 Geopolitics · July 12, 2026He missed his own father's state funeral. Traders price just 36% odds he's photographed this year.
Read →How the books, the exchanges and the regulators actually work.
Fixed-odds books versus order-book markets: margins, mechanics, and where the honest number lives.
Read → Case Study · July 2026Books said 16.9%, traders said 12.8% — and the convergence told us who was sharper. The method, documented live.
Read →One email a day: the sharpest lines, the biggest industry moves, and what prediction markets are pricing in. Free, forever.