Every story, newest first — what happened, and what it did to the prices.
Matches through the lens of the lines that priced them.
Kalshi had Messi at ~90% for the Golden Ball. Spain's zero-goal captain won it instead. Mbappé's Golden Boot landed exactly where the market said.
Read → ⚽ Result · July 20, 2026Torres in the 105th, Enzo sent off late, one goal conceded all tournament. What the closing +115 / +200 / +285 actually said — and which tickets cashed.
Read → ⚽ Match Analysis · July 19, 2026The pre-match read: Spain +115 in 90, -150 to lift; the ~33% draw as the quiet story; the extra-time premium. It all happened.
Read →What money on Polymarket and Kalshi is saying about the world.
Days after a record $5.69B World Cup market, AGA and IGA asked Congress to ban Kalshi and Polymarket's sports contracts outright. The CFTC chairman disagreed.
Read → Analysis · Updated July 20, 2026A record $4.25B winner market, the England gap case study, and a final priced in stereo: 59¢ resolved Yes.
Read → 🌍 Geopolitics · July 12, 2026He missed his own father's state funeral. Traders price just 36% odds he's photographed this year.
Read →How the books, the exchanges and the regulators actually work.
Fixed-odds books versus order-book markets: margins, mechanics, and where the honest number lives.
Read → Case Study · July 2026Books said 16.9%, traders said 12.8% — and the convergence told us who was sharper. The method, documented live.
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