Idaho co-signed the 39-state brief that beat Kalshi in the Ninth Circuit on 28 August. Five days later the state has issued no letter, no suit, nothing. Kalshi still trades there.
Hourly Polymarket data around the Ninth Circuit ruling. The December contract nearly doubled in sixty minutes. The October contract did not move at all. CSV included.
Hawaii bans every form of gambling and has no sportsbook. Kalshi and Polymarket still run here, and no Hawaii authority has ever written a letter.
The Ninth Circuit ruling is binding precedent in Alaska. Alaska has no sportsbook, no lottery and no regulator built to enforce it.
The ruling binds nine states. Two already have injunctions. Three have no legal sportsbook at all — and those are the ones nobody is writing about.
No. And the reason matters: the league can veto bet types at a sportsbook by contract, but has to go to a federal regulator to reach an exchange.
Flutter booked $6m in Q2 and guided to $50m for the year — with an identical $50m EBITDA benefit. That equality is the whole story.
No cease-and-desist, no licensed sportsbook, and a tribal exclusivity fight running through the Ninth Circuit instead.
No injunction, no ruling, three live cases. And a state that takes a bigger cut of sports betting than any other.
No sportsbook, no lottery, no betting tax — and the first final federal judgment that state gambling law reaches Kalshi. What it does, and what it pointedly does not do.
The regulator says no licence, no market — and has sent the letters to prove it. What it has not done is sue. Kalshi operates untaxed while licensed books pay 21.5%.
Nineteen of 23 injunction decisions have gone to the states. Why the reporting reads the other way — and a correction to our own newsletter.
Virginia wrote rules for online casinos, skill games and DFS in 2026. Event contracts were in none of them — and the Fourth Circuit is about to rule above the state anyway.
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