PPI report today, October 2026: wholesale prices seen up 0.4% after a 1.3% jump, with a December Fed hike priced at 88.5%
It is the last major inflation release before the Federal Reserve's December 9 decision, and it lands in a market that has already moved a long way. Tuesday's consumer price report came in hotter than forecast, which we covered in our October CPI report, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.14% on Friday, a three-week high, with the 2-year at 4.89%, according to TradingView News. With a December hike close to fully priced, the open questions for the PPI are the size of that move and what follows in January.
What the market is pricing
Prices are from BetG8's Fed rate decision odds page, which reads Kalshi and Polymarket every five minutes. The read time is 10:58 UTC on November 13, about two and a half hours before the release.
| Fed decision | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| December 9: 25 bp hike | 88.5% | 88.5% |
| December 9: hike of 50 bp or more | 9.2% | 10.5% |
| December 9: no change | 2.6% | 3.5% |
| January 2027: 25 bp hike | 59.5% | 58.5% |
| January 2027: no change | 39.0% | 36.5% |
Two shifts stand out against our desk's readings earlier on Friday. At 04:43 UTC the January quarter-point hike stood at 62.5% on Polymarket and 62.0% on Kalshi; it has eased about three points on each venue. Over the same period Kalshi's December quarter-point contract rose from 85.5% to 88.5%, closing the gap with Polymarket. Fed funds futures tell a similar story in different units: TradingView News put the implied odds of a half-point December hike at about 14.5%, up from zero a week earlier, with a quarter-point move still the main expectation.
What economists expect
The consensus figures below are as published by TradingView News and the 1trader preview; Finobird's calendar lists the same 0.4% headline forecast. September figures are as reported by 1trader.
| Final demand PPI | September | October consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Headline, month on month | +1.3% | +0.4% |
| Core, month on month | +0.7% | +0.3% |
| Headline, year on year | 6.3% | about 6.6% (Dow Jones survey) |
September's jump was driven by energy. Goods prices rose 2.6% that month, with energy up 10.8%, while services rose 0.8%, according to 1trader. A 0.4% reading would therefore be a sharp slowdown in the monthly pace even as the annual rate climbs, partly because October 2025 was a low base for the comparison.
Why this print matters for the Fed
Producer prices sit upstream of consumer prices, and several PPI components feed directly into the personal consumption expenditures index, the inflation measure the Fed tracks. That gives the release more weight than its headline usually gets. This week Fed officials have also lined up behind further tightening, covered in our report on Hammack and the January odds. The 1trader preview frames the outcomes simply: a reading above forecast, especially with core above 0.3%, would add to December hike expectations and support the dollar, an in-line reading would shift attention to the details and to Fed speakers, and a reading below forecast would ease them.
What to watch next
First, core against 0.3%, since the headline is exposed to energy swings. Second, the December contract for a hike of 50 basis points or more, at 9.2% on Polymarket and 10.5% on Kalshi before the data: it is the cleanest read on whether traders think the Fed needs a bigger move. Third, the January contract, which has eased since early Friday. In other markets, S&P 500 futures were up more than 0.2% early Friday after the index closed down 0.35% at 7,592.40 on Thursday, per TradingView News, and the SPY fund last closed at $757.12, according to Twelve Data.
Method and limits
This is a preview. It contains no October PPI figures, and the prices in it predate the release. Kalshi and Polymarket prices are from BetG8's live page, updated 10:58 UTC on November 13, 2026, and will move when the data is published; the live page shows current values. Consensus and September figures are taken from published previews, not from the Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8 or investment advice.
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Frequently asked questions
What time is the PPI report today?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October 2026 producer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is 13:30 UTC, on Friday, November 13, 2026.
What is the PPI forecast for October 2026?
Consensus looks for a 0.4% monthly rise in headline PPI and 0.3% in core, after gains of 1.3% and 0.7% in September. A Dow Jones survey cited by 1trader points to an annual rate of about 6.6%, up from 6.3%.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in December 2026?
At 10:58 UTC on November 13, 2026, before the PPI release, a quarter-point hike on December 9 was priced at 88.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and a hike of 50 basis points or more at 9.2% on Polymarket and 10.5% on Kalshi. These are market prices, not predictions.
Sources
- TradingView News, S&P 500 futures edge higher, 10-year yield hits 5.14%
- 1trader, US PPI preview, October 2026: +0.4% expected vs +1.3% prior
- Finobird, US Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM, November 13, 2026
- TipRanks, PPI data due today
- Polymarket, Fed decision in December and January, and Kalshi, read 10:58 UTC via BetG8's live page
- Twelve Data, SPY quote, November 12, 2026 close
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