Who is favored in "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?"?

As of November 6, 2026, 5.40% is the favorite at 51.5%, followed by 5.50% at 48.0%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$289K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $21K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Live market data

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Name: How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is 5.40% at 51.5%, ahead of 5.50% at 48.0%. $289K traded across 7 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

51.5%

5.40% · Trade →

24h move

-23.0

pts · 7d -28.5

Volume

$289K

24h $1K · liquidity $21K

Closes

December 31, 2026

55 days left

Economy Finance Fed Rates Treasuries

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
5.40%	51.5%	-23.0	-28.5	$3K	1.0¢
5.50%	48.0%	-9.0	-22.0	$3K	6.0¢
5.60%	39.5%	-2.5	-15.5	$2K	9.0¢
5.70%	12.5%	-4.0	-6.5	$63K	5.0¢
5.80%	7.6%	-0.7	-8.2	$50K	0.1¢
5.90%	5.5%	0.0	-1.0	$34K	1.0¢
6.00%	5.3%	-0.2	-0.4	$55K	2.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

5.40%5.50%5.60%5.70%

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 5.40% at 52% risks 52¢ to win 49¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?"?: As of November 6, 2026, 5.40% is the favorite at 51.5%, followed by 5.50% at 48.0%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $289K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $21K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.