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Next French Presidential Election: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Marine Le Pen at 44.3%, ahead of David Lisnard at 15.3%. $166.7M traded across 45 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

44.3%
Marine Le Pen · Trade →

24h move

+2.8
pts · 7d +2.1

Volume

$166.7M
24h $898K · liquidity $20.1M

Closes

April 19, 2027
164 days left

French ElectionMain ElectionFranceWorldPolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Marine Le Pen44.3% +2.8+2.1$5.1M0.1¢
David Lisnard15.3% -0.8-0.3$6.7M0.1¢
Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5% -1.0+2.0$3.2M1.0¢
Édouard Philippe11.5% 0.0-5.0$3.0M1.0¢
Christine Lagarde6.7% -0.1+3.5$2.6M0.1¢
Raphaël Glucksmann2.8% +0.1-0.3$3.4M0.1¢
François Hollande2.4% -0.1+0.1$3.0M0.1¢
Jordan Bardella2.3% 0.0-0.4$3.5M0.1¢
Dominique de Villepin2.1% +0.3+1.5$3.4M0.1¢
Bruno Retailleau0.9% +0.4-0.3$3.7M0.5¢
Éric Zemmour0.7% -0.1-0.2$3.4M0.1¢
Gabriel Attal0.5% 0.0+0.1$3.7M0.1¢
François Baroin0.4% +0.1+0.1$1.8M0.1¢
Sarah Knafo0.3% -0.1-0.4$3.2M0.1¢
Sébastien Lecornu0.1% 0.00.0$2.6M0.1¢
Xavier Bertrand0.1% -0.1+0.1$6.9M0.2¢
François Ruffin0.1% 0.0+0.1$4.9M0.2¢
Marion Maréchal0.1% 0.00.0$1.1M0.2¢
Laurent Wauquiez0.1% 0.00.0$3.7M0.1¢
Marine Tondelier0.1% 0.00.0$4.6M0.1¢
Fabien Roussel0.1% 0.00.0$4.3M0.1¢
Olivier Faure0.1% 0.00.0$6.4M0.1¢
Ségolène Royal0.1% 0.00.0$7.0M0.1¢
François Asselineau0.1% 0.00.0$6.3M0.1¢
Clémentine Autain0.1% 0.00.0$5.0M0.1¢
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan0.1% 0.00.0$4.9M0.1¢
Michel Barnier0.1% 0.00.0$5.3M0.1¢
Valérie Pécresse0.1% 0.00.0$4.1M0.1¢
François Bayrou0.1% 0.00.0$5.9M0.1¢
Élisabeth Borne0.1% 0.00.0$5.6M0.1¢
Yaël Braun-Pivet0.1% 0.00.0$5.9M0.1¢
Jean Castex0.1% 0.00.0$2.1M0.1¢
Gérald Darmanin0.1% 0.00.0$2.1M0.1¢
Carole Delga0.1% 0.00.0$4.7M0.1¢
Bernard Cazeneuve0.1% 0.00.0$2.5M0.1¢
Manuel Bompard0.1% 0.00.0$5.2M0.1¢
Mathilde Panot0.1% 0.00.0$6.4M0.1¢
Juan Branco0.1% 0.00.0$2.4M0.1¢
Clémence Guetté0.1% 0.00.0$4.2M0.1¢
Karim Bouamrane0.1% 0.00.0$1.3M0.1¢
Lucie Castets0.1% 0.00.0$424K0.1¢
Yannick Jadot0.1% 0.00.0$750K0.1¢
Natacha Polony0.1% 0.00.0$171K0.1¢
Anasse Kazib0.1% 0.00.0$500.1¢
Sylvain Durif0.1% 0.00.0$52K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-1405-1111-06
Marine Le PenDavid LisnardJean-Luc MélenchonÉdouard Philippe

Market rules and resolution

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Marine Le Pen at 44% risks 44¢ to win 56¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Next French Presidential Election"?
As of November 6, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the favorite at 44.3%, followed by David Lisnard at 15.3%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on April 19, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$166.7M in total and $898K in the last 24 hours, with about $20.1M of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.