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Home / Markets / Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Live market data

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 65.5% (-12.0 pts in 24h). $1.5M has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

65.5%
No 34.5% · Trade →

24h move

-12.0
pts · 7d -5.5

Volume

$1.5M
24h $96K · liquidity $121K

Closes

December 10, 2026
34 days left

FedEconomyFed RatesCPI ReleaseMacro Single

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes65.5% -12.0-5.5$1.5M1.0¢
No34.5% +12.0+5.5$1.5M–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 66% risks 66¢ to win 35¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 65.5% and No at 34.5%, on $1.5M of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on December 10, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$1.5M in total and $96K in the last 24 hours, with about $121K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.