Jaguars Super Bowl odds: three defensive trades in a day, including Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis, lift Jacksonville to about 11%
ESPN and NFL Network reported the Bates deal first, and Bates confirmed it himself on X with "Woke up a Jaguar," per Yardbarker. The Davis trade came late on Monday; CBS Sports and NFL.com report that the Eagles confirmed it. Bates had 60 tackles and three forced fumbles in nine games for the 3-6 Falcons this season. Davis, a former first-round pick, adds size to Jacksonville's interior line. The trade deadline is Tuesday, November 10, at 4 p.m. ET, so more moves are possible.
What the market is pricing
Prices from BetG8's live Super Bowl odds page:
| Win Super Bowl LXI | Polymarket | Kalshi | Read (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars, at the Bates trade | 8.9% | 8.5% | 15:43, Nov 9 |
| Jaguars, after the Davis trade | 10.8% | 9.5% | 01:43, Nov 10 |
| Jaguars, now | 10.9% | 10.5% | 13:35, Nov 10 |
| Chicago Bears | 10.9% | 12.5% | 13:35, Nov 10 |
| Buffalo Bills | 14.5% | 14.5% | 13:35, Nov 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 14.3% | 15.0% | 13:35, Nov 10 |
The averaged price of about 10.7% converts to roughly +835 in American odds. Jacksonville is level with Chicago on Polymarket and fourth on Kalshi. Atlanta, the seller in the Bates deal, is 0.4% on Polymarket and 1.0% on Kalshi; Philadelphia, which sent Davis away, is 0.1% and 1.0%.
Why the market moved the Jaguars and not the sellers
A title price compounds several things: the chance of making the playoffs, the likely seed, and the chance of winning three or four games in January and February. A 6-2 team leading its division already has a high playoff probability, so upgrades that improve a defense mostly raise the later-round odds. That is where a two-point move on a 9% price comes from. For Atlanta and Philadelphia the price was already close to the floor, so losing a starter changes little on the futures board even if it matters for the rest of their season.
The cost of going all in
Jacksonville gave up a 2027 first-round pick, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick across the two deals reported with full terms. Markets do not price future draft capital, so the futures board only sees the upside. That is a useful reminder that a Super Bowl price measures one season. A team can raise this year's number and still weaken its position for 2027 and beyond, which no current contract on Kalshi or Polymarket captures.
What to watch next
Tuesday afternoon's deadline is the immediate catalyst: any further deals by Jacksonville or by Buffalo, San Francisco and Chicago would shift the top of the board. After that, Week 10 results will show whether the new players change on-field outcomes. Watch the gap between venues too: Kalshi moved later than Polymarket after the Davis trade and has now caught up, and the two books are within half a point of each other.
Method and limits
Prices come from BetG8's live Super Bowl page, which reads the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API every five minutes; earlier readings are from BetG8's newsroom queue. American odds use the average of the two venues. Trade terms and statistics are from ESPN, NFL.com, CBS Sports and Yardbarker. Prices are not forecasts by BetG8.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Jaguars' Super Bowl odds?
At 13:35 UTC on November 10, 2026, Jacksonville was 10.9% on Polymarket and 10.5% on Kalshi to win Super Bowl LXI, up from 8.9% and 8.5% before the trades.
What did the Jaguars give up for Jessie Bates?
A 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick, per ESPN and NFL Network.
What did the Jaguars give up for Jordan Davis?
A 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 second-round pick, per CBS Sports and NFL.com, which report the Eagles confirmed the deal.
Sources
- ESPN, Jaguars get Jessie Bates III in trade with Falcons
- CBS Sports, Jordan Davis traded to the Jaguars
- NFL.com, Jordan Davis trade: Jaguars and Eagles
- Yardbarker, Woke up a Jaguar: Jessie Bates III breaks silence
- BetG8, Super Bowl odds, live, read 13:35 UTC, November 10, 2026
18+ only. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice, and prices are not predictions. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.