NBA MVP odds 2026-27, live: every contender’s price on Kalshi and Polymarket
Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes2026-27 NBA MVP
| Player | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 35.0% | 35.5% | -0.5 | +184 | Polymarket |
| Luka Doncic | 34.9% | 32.0% | +2.9 | +199 | Kalshi |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 10.5% | 12.5% | -2.0 | +770 | Polymarket |
| Nikola Jokic | 7.5% | 5.5% | +2.0 | +1438 | Kalshi |
| Jayson Tatum | 3.8% | 7.5% | -3.8 | +1678 | Polymarket |
| Tyrese Maxey | 5.0% | 4.5% | +0.5 | +2016 | – |
| Cade Cunningham | 2.1% | 1.5% | +0.6 | +5534 | Kalshi |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 1.8% | 1.5% | +0.3 | +5961 | – |
| Cooper Flagg | 1.4% | 1.5% | -0.1 | +6918 | – |
| Stephen Curry | 0.9% | 1.0% | -0.1 | +10156 | – |
| Anthony Edwards | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.3 | +11329 | – |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.7% | 1.0% | -0.3 | +11665 | – |
| Donovan Mitchell | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +12803 | – |
| Deni Avdija | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +12803 | – |
| Alperen Sengun | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13233 | Polymarket |
| Jaylen Brown | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13693 | Polymarket |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.7 | +15285 | Polymarket |
| Devin Booker | 0.2% | 1.0% | -0.8 | +16567 | Polymarket |
| Scottie Barnes | 0.2% | 1.0% | -0.8 | +16567 | Polymarket |
| Jalen Johnson | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Paolo Banchero | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Anthony Davis | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Kevin Durant | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Austin Reaves | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
How to read the table
Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a player at 15% costs 15 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.
What moves NBA MVP prices
The award is voted on by a panel of media members after the regular season, using a ranked five-place ballot. Since the 2023-24 season, players generally need to appear in at least 65 games to be eligible for major awards, so a long injury can remove a favorite from the race even if his numbers are the best in the league. The market therefore reacts sharply to injury news and load management, and less to a single big scoring night. Team record and narrative still matter: voters tend to favor the best player on a top seed. Kalshi lists more long shots than Polymarket, so players outside the top ten often have a price on only one venue.
Prediction market futures vs sportsbook futures
A sportsbook builds its margin into every futures price: add up the implied probability of every player’s odds on a typical award board and the total often comes to 120% or more, against roughly 100% on an exchange. That difference is the hold, and it is largest on long shots. Converting the exchange price to American odds lets you compare directly: if a book offers a player at +900 and the exchange prices it at 12% (about +733), the book is paying more for the same outcome; if the book offers +600, the exchange is the better price. Our price comparison tool does the conversion and this explainer covers how the vig works.
Why the same event has two prices
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.
Method and limits
Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favorite to win NBA MVP?
The first row of the live table is the current favorite, ranked by the average of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices.
When does the NBA MVP market settle?
When the league announces the award in the spring of 2027, during the playoffs. Voting happens after the regular season ends.
Does the 65-game rule affect the odds?
Yes. A player who is likely to miss too many games can lose most of his price even while playing well, which is why injury news moves this market more than box scores.
Can I trade these markets from the US?
Kalshi offers sports event contracts in most US states, although several states have challenged them in court; check the 50-state tracker. Polymarket’s main venue is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate app with its own books.
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