Kalshi is in no hurry at the Supreme Court. Here is the November 9 deadline, the two rehearing petitions and the CFTC rules it is waiting for

Analysis · Updated October 22, 2026 · 18+ · Not legal advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Prediction Markets

Kalshi Supreme Court timeline: November 9 brief, two rehearing petitions, CFTC comments due November 18 — Every party says the Supreme Court will have to decide whether states can treat sports event contracts as bets. The argument now is about when, and Kalshi is using every procedural step that pushes the answer later.

Short answer: New Jersey asked the Supreme Court on September 2, 2026 to overturn the Third Circuit decision that let Kalshi keep offering sports contracts there. The case is Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299, and Kalshi's brief in opposition is due November 9 after the Court granted it a 30-day extension in September. In the meantime Kalshi has asked the two appeals courts that ruled against it, the Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee) and the Ninth Circuit (Nevada), to rehear their cases with all active judges, and in both it points to swap-definition rules the CFTC issued on October 9 and published on October 19, with comments due November 18. Nevada calls the Ninth Circuit request "just another attempt at delay." The practical effect of the calendar: the justices are unlikely to see a complete set of briefs before late November, and a decision on whether to hear the case is likely to come in December or January rather than this month. Nothing in that sequence changes where Kalshi is available today.

On October 16 Semafor reported what the dockets already showed: Kalshi agrees the Supreme Court will eventually have to answer the question that has split the appeals courts, and it is not trying to get there quickly. Its litigator told the outlet that pending rehearing petitions and the CFTC's new rules were "muddying the waters." The American Gaming Association read the same filings differently. Its spokesperson Rob Lockwood said Kalshi "seems spooked" by the prospect of the Court taking the case, and put sports at roughly 85 percent of Kalshi's volume, a figure Kalshi's side disputed. This page sets out the dated steps, because each one moves the earliest possible answer.

The calendar, step by step

Date	Step	Court or agency
Aug 28, 2026	Panel rules 3-0 for Nevada: sports contracts likely not swaps, no preemption	Ninth Circuit
Sep 2, 2026	New Jersey files its petition; docketed September 8 as No. 26-299	Supreme Court
Sep 9, 2026	Kalshi petitions for rehearing en banc of the Nevada ruling	Ninth Circuit
Sep 22, 2026	Court grants Kalshi 30 more days; response moves from October 8 to November 9	Supreme Court
Sep 25, 2026	Panel rules for Ohio and Tennessee; same day, Kalshi asks the Ninth Circuit to grant rehearing or hold it until the CFTC revises Rule 40.11	Sixth and Ninth Circuits
Oct 7–8, 2026	Amicus briefs for New Jersey from 39 states and DC, the NFL, the AGA and tribes	Supreme Court
Oct 9, 2026	CFTC issues two swap rules; Kalshi files for rehearing en banc on the last day of its window	CFTC; Sixth Circuit
Oct 19, 2026	Both rules published in the Federal Register; casino exclusion takes effect	CFTC
Nov 9, 2026	Kalshi's brief in opposition due	Supreme Court
Nov 18, 2026	Comments close on both CFTC rules	CFTC

Two dates on that list are fixed by rule rather than by anyone's choice. A response to a cert petition is due 30 days after docketing unless extended, which is how October 8 became November 9. And under Supreme Court Rule 15.5 a petition is distributed to the justices no less than 14 days after the brief in opposition is filed, so New Jersey's reply and the conference date both sit after November 9. A late-November or December conference is the earliest realistic point at which the justices vote on whether to take the case.

What Kalshi asked the Sixth Circuit

The Sixth Circuit panel, Judges Julia Smith Gibbons, Eric Clay and Rachel Bloomekatz, ruled on September 25 in KalshiEX v. Schuler and KalshiEX v. Orgel that Kalshi had not shown its sports contracts are swaps and that, even if they were, the Commodity Exchange Act would not preempt Ohio's or Tennessee's gambling laws. It affirmed the denial of an injunction in Ohio and vacated the one Kalshi held in Tennessee. Kalshi's petition for rehearing by the full court, signed by Neal Katyal of Milbank, was filed on October 9, the last day of the 14-day window. It argues the decision conflicts with the Third and Ninth Circuits and with the Sixth Circuit's own precedent, and that the rules the CFTC issued the same day "substantially undermine the panel's holding concerning the meaning of 'swap.'" The CFTC's interim rule says it acted partly because the panel relied on "the erroneous premise that if event contracts are swaps, then casino-style gambling products must also be swaps."

Rehearing en banc is rarely granted. Its value to Kalshi is less the odds of winning it than the record it builds: if the Supreme Court takes New Jersey's case, the justices will see a federal agency that has formally said it regards sports event contracts as swaps and licensed sportsbook bets as not swaps.

What Kalshi asked the Ninth Circuit, and what Nevada said

In the Nevada case Kalshi's rehearing petition was already pending when the CFTC announced its plans. On September 25 Kalshi wrote to the court that, because the CFTC said it would revise Rule 40.11 "within the next two months," the court should either grant rehearing or hold the petition until the revised rule appears. Nevada's lawyer, Nicole Saharsky of Mayer Brown, opposed: "The court was well aware that the CFTC planned to revise section 40.11 when it issued the decision," she wrote, calling the request "just another attempt at delay." Nevada's point is that the panel interpreted the statute, and a rule cannot change what a statute meant when Congress wrote it. Semafor reported that Nevada has also sought more time in a related Supreme Court matter, No. 26-338, involving Robinhood.

Why the CFTC rules matter to the timing

The two rules are the reason every party is watching November. The interim final rule, in force since October 19, carves state- and tribe-licensed casino and sportsbook products out of the swap definition. The proposed rule would write event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather into it, and it cannot become final until the comment period closes on November 18 and the agency responds. A final inclusion rule would give Kalshi a federal regulation, not only a statutory argument, to put in front of the justices. Polymarket US is already using the rules the same way: its October 16 complaint against Ohio in the Southern District of Ohio argues the Sixth Circuit ruling "was decided against a different legal landscape."

The states' answer, as Nevada's filing shows, is that the question is statutory and has been answered by two circuits. The CFTC's chairman, Mike Selig, has said he would "welcome" a Supreme Court ruling because it "would really settle the matter," which is a different position from asking the Court to wait.

What does not change while the calendar runs

None of these filings alters current availability. Kalshi's sports contracts remain blocked where a court order or agreement blocks them, as in Nevada and Michigan, and remain live in states that have not acted. The Third Circuit's April ruling still protects Kalshi in New Jersey until the Supreme Court says otherwise. Our 50-state tracker carries the state-by-state position, and the court calendar lists every dated deadline.

Method and limits

Dates and quotations come from the reports and filings listed under Sources. We have not reviewed the Supreme Court docket for No. 26-338 or the full text of Nevada's opposition, and the description of the 30-day extension relies on a third-party docket summary that matches the November 9 due date reported elsewhere. The conference timing is an inference from Supreme Court Rule 15.5, not a scheduled date. The 85 percent sports share is the AGA's figure, disputed by Kalshi, and is not verified here.

Frequently asked questions

When is Kalshi's Supreme Court brief due?

November 9, 2026. New Jersey's petition in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299, was docketed on September 8, which made the response due October 8; the Court granted Kalshi a 30-day extension on September 22.

Will the Supreme Court decide whether to hear the Kalshi case this year?

Probably not before December. Under Rule 15.5 a petition is distributed no less than 14 days after the brief in opposition, so the earliest conference follows late November. The Court generally needs to grant a case by January for it to be argued and decided in the current term.

What are the rehearing petitions?

Kalshi asked the full Sixth Circuit on October 9 to rehear the September 25 decision for Ohio and Tennessee, and asked the Ninth Circuit, where a rehearing petition has been pending since September 9, to grant it or hold it until the CFTC revises Rule 40.11. Both cite the CFTC's October 9 swap rules. Neither court had ruled as of October 22.

Does any of this change where Kalshi is available?

No. Availability depends on state enforcement and existing court orders, which these filings do not alter. A grant of rehearing would reopen the appeals but would not by itself lift the Nevada or Ohio rulings.

Sources

Semafor, Kalshi in no rush for Supreme Court ruling in fight with states, 16 October 2026, for the extension, the "muddying the waters" and "spooked" quotations, the 85 percent figure, No. 26-338 and the Selig remark.
Gambling.com, CFTC moves to classify sports event contracts as swaps, Kalshi cites rule in appeal, 13 October 2026, for the Sixth Circuit panel, the October 9 petition, its arguments and the interim rule quotation.
CDC Gaming, Nevada attorney opposes Kalshi's bid to delay rehearing due to CFTC rulemaking, 4 October 2026, for the September 25 letter and the Saharsky quotations.
Gambling Insider, The Gambling Wire: Polymarket takes Ohio to court, CFTC opens the floor and Kalshi hits snooze on SCOTUS, October 2026, for the comment periods opening October 19 and closing November 18.
SiaPredict, Kalshi's Supreme Court case now has a docket number: No. 26-299, a third-party docket summary, for the filing, docketing and extension dates.
Unchained, Polymarket takes Ohio to federal court, citing new CFTC rules after Kalshi's appeals loss, October 2026, for the "different legal landscape" quotation.
Federal Register, Further definition of "swap": inclusions, 19 October 2026.
Supreme Court of the United States, Rules of the Court, Rule 15.5 on distribution of petitions.

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