NBA championship odds 2027, live: every team’s title chances on Kalshi and Polymarket
Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes2027 NBA champion
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 22.5% | 22.5% | 0.0 | +344 | – |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 13.5% | 15.5% | -2.0 | +590 | Polymarket |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 13.1% | 14.5% | -1.5 | +626 | Polymarket |
| Houston Rockets | 8.1% | 6.5% | +1.6 | +1270 | Kalshi |
| Boston Celtics | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.0 | +1438 | – |
| New York Knicks | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.0 | +1438 | – |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 5.5% | 4.5% | +1.0 | +1910 | Kalshi |
| Detroit Pistons | 4.5% | 3.5% | +1.0 | +2384 | Kalshi |
| Toronto Raptors | 3.6% | 3.5% | +0.1 | +2737 | – |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 3.4% | 3.5% | -0.2 | +2820 | – |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 2.6% | 2.5% | +0.1 | +3822 | – |
| Denver Nuggets | 2.6% | 2.5% | +0.1 | +3860 | – |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.3% | 2.5% | -0.3 | +4111 | – |
| Miami Heat | 1.8% | 1.5% | +0.3 | +5870 | – |
| Golden State Warriors | 1.7% | 1.5% | +0.2 | +6249 | – |
| Indiana Pacers | 1.4% | 1.5% | -0.1 | +6918 | – |
| Dallas Mavericks | 0.8% | 1.5% | -0.8 | +8789 | Polymarket |
| Atlanta Hawks | 1.0% | 1.0% | +0.0 | +9656 | – |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 0.9% | 1.0% | -0.1 | +10426 | – |
| Orlando Magic | 0.7% | 1.0% | -0.3 | +12021 | – |
| Charlotte Hornets | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13693 | Polymarket |
| Washington Wizards | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13693 | Polymarket |
| Utah Jazz | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 | +14715 | Polymarket |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.8 | +15900 | Polymarket |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Brooklyn Nets | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Chicago Bulls | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Sacramento Kings | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
How to read the table
Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a team at 12% costs 12 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.
Prediction market futures vs sportsbook futures
A sportsbook builds its margin into the price: add up the implied probability of every team’s championship odds at a typical US book and the total is often 120% to 140%, against roughly 100% on an exchange. That difference is the hold, and it is largest on long shots. Converting a team’s exchange price to American odds lets you compare directly: if a book offers a team at +900 and Kalshi prices it at 12% (about +733), the book is paying more for the same outcome; if the book offers +600, the exchange is the better price. Our price comparison tool does the conversion and this explainer covers how the vig works. The NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction market partners in October; here is what that deal covers.
Why the same event has two prices
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.
Method and limits
Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NBA championship?
The team at the top of the live table is the current favorite, ranked by the average of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices. Futures prices move with injuries, trades and results, so the order changes through the season.
How do I convert NBA championship odds to a probability?
On Kalshi and Polymarket the price is the probability: 12 cents means 12%. For sportsbook American odds, a plus number converts as 100 divided by (odds plus 100), so +900 is 10%. Our converter handles any format.
Are NBA futures cheaper on prediction markets than at sportsbooks?
Usually, because exchanges charge a small fee instead of building a margin into every price. The gap is biggest on long shots, where sportsbook holds are highest.
When does the NBA championship market settle?
When the 2027 NBA Finals end in June 2027. Contracts on every team that is eliminated earlier fall to zero as soon as they are knocked out.
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18+ only. Prediction market contracts and leveraged trading carry real financial risk. This page is market data and analysis, not betting, financial or legal advice. BetG8 earns referral commission from some of the venues linked here. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.