Ohio gave 10 prediction markets until October 16 to stop. Here is who got the letter and what changed.
Who got the letter, and what each one actually does
The ten recipients are not the same kind of business, and that matters for what "stop" means in practice. Some run the exchange that lists the contracts. Most are brokers that route customer orders to an exchange run by someone else, which is why the letters name both designated contract markets (DCMs) and futures commission merchants (FCMs) and tell the recipient to stop "soliciting or accepting orders" from people located in Ohio as well as operating a market that offers them.
| Recipient | Role in the sports contract chain | Earlier state letters |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Operates its own CFTC-registered US exchange | Sued by New York in September |
| Robinhood | Broker; routes event contract orders to a partner exchange | Second state letter; the first came in March 2025 |
| Coinbase | Broker offering event contracts inside its app | No prior Ohio action reported |
| Novig | Exchange-style sports trading app, now marketed with a Sydney Sweeney campaign | No prior Ohio action reported |
| Underdog | Daily fantasy operator with a "Predict" product | No prior Ohio action reported |
| ProphetX | Peer-to-peer sports exchange | No prior Ohio action reported |
| Webull | Retail brokerage offering event contracts | No prior Ohio action reported |
| Plus500 | Retail derivatives broker with a US futures arm | No prior Ohio action reported |
| Gemini Titan | Gemini's US derivatives entity | No prior Ohio action reported |
| Moomoo | Retail brokerage offering event contracts | No prior Ohio action reported |
The letters were signed by the Commission's interim executive director, Andromeda Morrison, and were released by Governor Mike DeWine's office alongside Commission chair Thomas Stickrath. The one addressed to Polymarket says that "by offering sports event contracts to persons located in Ohio, Polymarket is clearly engaged in bookmaking," and the others use the same construction with the recipient's name swapped in. Morrison's public statement was blunter: "The Commission expects these entities to cease their illegal gambling activity in Ohio immediately."
The ruling that made the letters possible
Ohio has believed these products are sports betting since March 2025, when it first wrote to Kalshi. What it lacked until three weeks ago was a federal appeals court saying it could act. On 25 September a unanimous Sixth Circuit panel, in an opinion by Senior Judge Julia Smith Gibbons joined by Judges Eric Clay and Rachel Bloomekatz, decided Kalshi's two preemption suits against Ohio and Tennessee in the states' favour.
The opinion does two separate things. First, it holds that Kalshi "has not shown that its sports-event contracts satisfy the statutory definition of a 'swap'." A swap, in the court's reading, has to be tied to an event with an intrinsic financial consequence; whether a team wins has only "downstream economic consequences" for the people who bet on it. Second, and more importantly for the ten letters, it holds that even if the contracts were swaps, the Commodity Exchange Act "neither expressly nor impliedly preempts Ohio's or Tennessee's gambling laws." The Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over the market, but a state law that regulates sports betting and places no restriction on the designation or operation of a contract market as such is, in the court's words, an "ancillary" regulation the Act leaves alone.
The second holding is the one that reaches past Kalshi. Every company on Ohio's list has told the public the same thing Kalshi did: the CFTC regulates us, not the states. Polymarket's response to the letters was that prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC and "not a patchwork of state rules"; Robinhood's was that its contracts are CFTC-regulated and offered "in a safe, compliant, and regulated manner." Inside the Sixth Circuit, which covers Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Michigan, that argument has now lost on both branches.
Where this leaves the circuit scoreboard
Ohio's letters land in a legal map that has changed three times since spring.
| Court | Date | Outcome | States bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| Third Circuit | April 2026 | Divided panel: CEA preempts New Jersey's sports betting law as applied to Kalshi | NJ, PA, DE |
| Ninth Circuit | 28 August 2026 | Nevada can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts under state gambling law | Nine western states |
| Sixth Circuit | 25 September 2026 | Contracts not shown to be swaps; CEA does not preempt Ohio or Tennessee law | OH, KY, TN, MI |
| Fourth Circuit | Pending | Maryland appeal argued, no decision | MD, VA, WV, NC, SC |
| Supreme Court | Docket 26-299 | New Jersey's petition pending; 39 states and the NFL have filed in support; Kalshi responds by 9 November | All |
Two circuits against Kalshi, one for it, one pending, and a petition at the Supreme Court. Kalshi's spokesperson, Dani Lever, said after the Sixth Circuit decision that "the law does not require a swap to involve 'intrinsic' financial consequences" and that "markets can't operate when the rules change at every state line." That is also the strongest argument for the Supreme Court taking the case: the rules now do change at the state line, and Ohio has just shown what that looks like for ten companies at once.
Why Kalshi is not on the list
The largest sports contract venue in the country is missing from Ohio's ten, and the reason is procedural rather than lenient. Ohio already wrote to Kalshi in March 2025, Kalshi sued the Commission and state officials in October 2025, a federal judge in Columbus denied Kalshi a preliminary injunction in March 2026, the Commission fined Kalshi $5 million in April for operating unlicensed sports gaming, and the Sixth Circuit affirmed the injunction denial last month. Ohio's position is that Kalshi is already on notice, already fined and already losing in court. DeWine's comment on 2 October was that the state "will certainly enforce the law" against it.
What enforcement means for Kalshi after the appeal is the live question. The Commission's original demand was that Kalshi either stop or apply for an Ohio licence and pay the state's 20 percent tax on sports betting revenue. Kalshi has not said it will do either, and the appeals ruling does not itself order Kalshi to stop; it only removes the shield Kalshi asked for. The next step is in Ohio's hands, and the $5 million fine is the obvious lever.
The money on both sides of the letter
Ohio's argument has always been partly fiscal. The state has licensed online sportsbooks since January 2023, taxes their revenue at 20 percent, and collected more than $14 million in tax in August 2025 alone on a handle of about $663 million. A sports event contract traded by an Ohio resident on Robinhood or Polymarket pays none of that, and none of the licence fees, and is not subject to the Commission's rules on advertising, age verification or problem gambling. That is what the letters mean when they call the products "unlicensed sports gaming."
The other side of the ledger is political. Signal Cleveland's reporting this week sets the letters against the money the recipients and their peers are putting into elections. Coinbase has given $33.2 million to Fairshake, the crypto super PAC, which Politico reports plans to spend $30 million in Ohio's Senate race against Sherrod Brown. Polymarket's parent, Blockratize Inc., gave $1 million to a super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership and $10,000 to Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign for Ohio governor. None of that is illegal, and none of it changes the Sixth Circuit's reading of the Commodity Exchange Act. It does mean the companies Ohio is telling to leave are simultaneously among the larger donors in the state's politics, which is an unusual position for a regulator's target.
What happens on 16 October
The most likely outcome is quiet geofencing by the brokers and a fight by the exchanges. Robinhood, Coinbase, Webull, Moomoo and Plus500 do not run the markets; they resell access to them, and their licences in other lines of business are worth far more than Ohio sports contract revenue. Cutting Ohio out of a product menu is a configuration change. Polymarket, Novig and ProphetX run the venues and have more at stake in the principle; Polymarket is already defending a New York suit on the same theory and has said it will fight for its users there.
Three things to watch. First, whether any recipient's 14-day written response is made public; the Commission released the letters, and it has an interest in releasing the replies. Second, whether Ohio follows a non-response with the civil penalty the letters describe, which is calculated on money taken from Ohio residents and would require discovery of exactly the per-state figures the platforms do not publish. Third, whether the CFTC intervenes. It has sued Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois and New York to assert exclusive jurisdiction and filed in Massachusetts, but it has not yet sued a state inside the Sixth Circuit, where the appeals court has already rejected its reading of the statute.
Method and limits
The list of recipients, the 2 October letter date, the 16 October deadline and the 14-day response requirement are from the letters as published by Covers, SportsBettingDime and LegalSportsBetting, which obtained them from YourRadioPlace.com and the Commission; we have not seen the letters directly. The roles assigned to each company in the first table are our characterisation from public product descriptions, not from the letters, which treat all ten the same way. Sixth Circuit holdings and quotations are from Courthouse News and PYMNTS reporting of the 25 September opinion; we quote the opinion only where those outlets quote it. Political contribution figures are from Signal Cleveland's 13 October report, which relies on federal records, Politico and Reuters. The August 2025 Ohio handle and tax figures are the most recent monthly numbers we could verify and are a year old; current figures will differ. Company responses are as reported by Signal Cleveland; Coinbase declined comment and Novig did not respond to that outlet. Nothing here is legal, financial or betting advice.
Frequently asked questions
Which prediction markets did Ohio send cease-and-desist letters to?
Ten companies, in letters dated 2 October 2026: Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, Novig, Underdog, ProphetX, Webull, Plus500, Gemini Titan and Moomoo. Kalshi was not on the list because Ohio is already litigating against it separately and fined it $5 million in April.
What is the deadline in the Ohio letters?
Each company must stop offering, facilitating or taking orders for sports event contracts from people in Ohio by 16 October 2026, and must confirm in writing within 14 days of the letter that it has complied.
Why could Ohio send the letters now?
On 25 September the Sixth Circuit held that Kalshi had not shown its sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that even if they were, the Act does not preempt Ohio's or Tennessee's gambling laws. That removed the federal preemption argument the platforms rely on, at least inside the Sixth Circuit.
What penalties does Ohio threaten?
A civil penalty equal to the money or value the company obtained from Ohio residents through the contracts, plus administrative, civil, nuisance or criminal action. The letters describe unlicensed sports gaming and bookmaking as a felony under Ohio law.
Does this affect prediction markets outside sports?
The letters cover sports event contracts only. Contracts on elections, economics, weather and other events are not named, although Ohio's governor has described the sports products as gambling and the Sixth Circuit's reasoning could be applied more widely.
Sources
- Signal Cleveland, Ohio cracks down on prediction markets as they flood elections with cash, 13 October 2026.
- Covers, Ohio sends cease-and-desists to 10 prediction market companies, 5 October 2026.
- SportsBettingDime, Ohio sends cease-and-desist notices to 10 prediction market operators, 5 October 2026, and LegalSportsBetting, Ohio issues cease-and-desist letter to 10 prediction markets, 6 October 2026.
- Courthouse News, Sixth Circuit says states can regulate Kalshi's prediction market, 25 September 2026, and PYMNTS, A second federal appeals court rules sports event contracts are not swaps, 29 September 2026.
- Statehouse News Bureau, Kalshi is illegal gambling and Ohio will enforce state law following ruling, says DeWine, 2 October 2026.
- WSN, Ohio sees second largest August sports betting handle in US, 6 October 2025.
- BetG8, Is Kalshi legal in Ohio? The $5 million fine fight, The NFL told the Supreme Court sports contracts are not swaps and States are beating Kalshi 19-4.
18+ only. This page reports published regulatory letters, court rulings and public statements. It is not legal, financial or betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.