French Presidential Election First Round Winner: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Marine Le Pen at 85.0%, ahead of Candidate A at 50.0%. $104K traded across 43 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
WorldFrancePoliticsElectionsMain Election
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 85.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate P | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Q | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate R | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate S | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate T | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate U | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate V | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate W | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate X | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Y | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Z | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 8.5% | -0.3 |
| Édouard Philippe | 2.9% | +0.3 |
| Christine Lagarde | 2.7% | -0.7 |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.0% | -0.3 |
| David Lisnard | 1.7% | -0.5 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| François Hollande | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Gabriel Attal | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| François Ruffin | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "French Presidential Election First Round Winner"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the favorite at 85.0%, followed by Candidate A at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on April 18, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $104K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $305K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.