Barcelona La Liga title odds after the Atletico win: 70.5% on Polymarket, plus Arsenal's Premier League lead and Crystal Palace's relegation price
The weekend also tightened Arsenal's grip on the Premier League and pushed Crystal Palace deeper into trouble. Here is how the three markets stand after the last weekend before the international break.
What the market is pricing
Prices from BetG8's live La Liga odds and Premier League odds pages, read at 16:49 UTC on November 10, and Polymarket's 2026-27 Premier League relegation markets read through the public Gamma API at about 16:48 UTC (midpoint prices; Kalshi has no matching relegation contract on our tracker):
| Market, Nov 10 | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga: Barcelona | 70.5% | 69.5% |
| La Liga: Real Madrid | 26.5% | 29.5% |
| La Liga: Atletico Madrid | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| Premier League: Arsenal | 76.5% | 78.5% |
| Premier League: Brighton | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| Premier League: Manchester City | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Premier League: Liverpool | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Relegated: Crystal Palace | 41% | n/a |
| Relegated: Coventry City | 55% | n/a |
| Relegated: Hull City | 55% | n/a |
| Relegated: Ipswich Town | 36% | n/a |
A 70% price converts to roughly -240 in American odds. The biggest venue gap in Spain is on Real Madrid, priced three points higher on Kalshi.
Barcelona: the comeback and the gap
Atletico started well, with Julian Alvarez setting up Simeone's opener, but Yahoo Sports credits a clearance error by Marc Pubill for the equaliser and Yamal for the winner. Losing at home to the leader leaves Atletico five points back and the market has largely written them off at under 2%. The real contest, as priced, is between Barcelona and Real Madrid. Three points is not much in a 38-game season, and Real Madrid's 26.5% to 29.5% reflects that, but Barcelona has dropped points only once in 12 league games.
Arsenal pulls clear in England
Martin Odegaard scored the only goal in the 72nd minute as Arsenal beat Hull City 1-0 on Saturday, according to FotMob. Later that day Nottingham Forest beat Manchester City 3-1, with Liam Delap scoring twice, for City's third straight league defeat after losses to Aston Villa and Brighton, according to Goal. City sits second on 21 points, six behind Arsenal. Arsenal's title price was 69.5% on Polymarket before Saturday's kickoffs in a BetG8 reading and is now 76.5%, with Kalshi at 78.5%. Brighton has edged above City on Polymarket.
Liverpool won 3-1 at Selhurst Park on Sunday through Alexis Mac Allister, Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, and moved up to fourth, according to Sky Sports. Its title price is 6.0% on Polymarket and 4.5% on Kalshi.
Crystal Palace and the relegation market
Palace are bottom of the table after a fourth straight league defeat, according to Sky Sports. Polymarket's relegation market prices them at 41%, with a bid of 40 cents and an ask of 42 cents, up from about 35% the day before the Liverpool game in an earlier BetG8 reading. Coventry and Hull are priced as likelier to go down at 55% each, and Ipswich at 36%. Because three clubs go down, the relegation prices across all 20 teams should add up to about 300%, so 41% puts Palace firmly in the group the market expects to fight it out.
What to watch next
The international break pauses both leagues. When they resume, watch whether Real Madrid's Kalshi premium narrows, whether Arsenal's price moves above 80% on either venue, and whether Palace's relegation price crosses 50%, which would make them a market favourite to go down.
Method and limits
Title prices come from BetG8's live La Liga and Premier League pages, which read the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API every five minutes, read at 16:49 UTC on November 10, 2026. Relegation prices are Polymarket midpoints read via the Gamma API at about 16:48 UTC. Earlier figures are BetG8 readings at the times described. Match facts are from ESPN, Yahoo Sports, Sky Sports, Goal and FotMob. Prices are not forecasts by BetG8.
LIVE MARKETLa Liga 2026-27 ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- La Liga title odds, live
- Premier League title odds, live
- Champions League odds, live
- Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
- How prediction markets resolve
Frequently asked questions
What are Barcelona's La Liga title odds?
At 16:49 UTC on November 10, 2026, Barcelona was 70.5% on Polymarket and 69.5% on Kalshi to win La Liga, ahead of Real Madrid at 26.5% and 29.5%.
Who is favourite to win the Premier League?
Arsenal, at 76.5% on Polymarket and 78.5% on Kalshi, six points clear of second-placed Manchester City.
What are Crystal Palace's relegation odds?
Polymarket priced a Crystal Palace relegation at 41% at about 16:48 UTC on November 10, 2026, with Palace bottom of the table.
Sources
- ESPN, Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona match report
- Yahoo Sports, Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona
- Sky Sports, Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
- Goal, Manchester City reel from defeat at Nottingham Forest
- FotMob, Arsenal 1-0 Hull City
- BetG8, La Liga odds, live, read 16:49 UTC, November 10, 2026
18+ only. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice, and prices are not predictions. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.