NBA Cup odds 2026, live: every team's chance to win the in-season tournament on Kalshi and Polymarket
Live · updated 2026-11-15 11:46 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes2026 NBA Cup winner
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 49.0% | 25.5% | +23.5 | +168 | Kalshi |
| Boston Celtics | 22.0% | 18.5% | +3.5 | +394 | Kalshi |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0 | +1076 | – |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 8.5% | 6.5% | +2.0 | +1233 | Kalshi |
| Detroit Pistons | 7.0% | 5.5% | +1.5 | +1500 | Kalshi |
| Miami Heat | 6.5% | 3.5% | +3.0 | +1900 | Kalshi |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 6.0% | 3.5% | +2.5 | +2005 | Kalshi |
| Houston Rockets | 4.9% | 4.5% | +0.4 | +2028 | – |
| Denver Nuggets | 5.5% | 3.5% | +1.9 | +2135 | Kalshi |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.6% | 6.0% | -3.4 | +2226 | Polymarket |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 2.7% | 4.5% | -1.8 | +2678 | Polymarket |
| Orlando Magic | 4.6% | 2.5% | +2.1 | +2717 | Kalshi |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 3.0% | 1.5% | +1.5 | +4394 | Kalshi |
| Toronto Raptors | 2.7% | 1.5% | +1.2 | +4719 | Kalshi |
| Atlanta Hawks | 2.6% | 1.5% | +1.1 | +4838 | Kalshi |
| Dallas Mavericks | 2.5% | 1.5% | +1.0 | +4900 | Kalshi |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 2.5% | 1.0% | +1.5 | +5614 | Kalshi |
| Brooklyn Nets | 2.2% | 1.0% | +1.2 | +6249 | Kalshi |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 2.2% | 1.0% | +1.2 | +6249 | Kalshi |
| Charlotte Hornets | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6352 | Kalshi |
| Indiana Pacers | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6352 | Kalshi |
| New York Knicks | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6352 | Kalshi |
| Phoenix Suns | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6352 | Kalshi |
| Utah Jazz | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6352 | Kalshi |
| Washington Wizards | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6352 | Kalshi |
| Chicago Bulls | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6457 | Kalshi |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6457 | Kalshi |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6457 | Kalshi |
| Sacramento Kings | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6457 | Kalshi |
| Golden State Warriors | 2.0% | 1.0% | +1.0 | +6567 | Kalshi |
How to read the table
Each row is one team. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a yes contract as a percentage, which is also the implied probability. PM − Kalshi is the gap in percentage points, and Cheaper YES names the venue where buying the team costs less before fees. The NBA Cup book on Polymarket is much thinner than Kalshi's, so gaps between the venues are wider here than on the championship market.
How the NBA Cup works
Teams are drawn into groups and play group games on designated Cup nights in November. Group winners and wild cards reach the knockout quarterfinals, and in recent seasons the semifinals and final have been played in Las Vegas in mid-December. Point differential is a tiebreaker in group play, which is why teams sometimes keep starters in late in lopsided wins. For the full season title, see the NBA championship odds page.
Method and limits
Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and refresh every five minutes. Outcomes are matched by name, so one listed on only one venue shows a dash in the other column. We use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask where the book is tight and the last trade otherwise. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favorite to win the NBA Cup?
The first row of the live table is the current favorite, ranked by the average of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices. The order changes most after each group-stage Cup night.
When is the NBA Cup final?
In December, after the knockout quarterfinals and semifinals. The market settles when the Cup final is played.
Can I trade NBA Cup odds from the US?
Kalshi offers sports event contracts in most US states, although several states have challenged them in court. Polymarket's main venue is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate app with its own books.
LIVE MARKETNBA: 2026 NBA Cup WinnerTrade on Polymarket →Related
18+ only. Prediction market contracts and leveraged trading carry real financial risk. This page is market data and analysis, not betting, financial or legal advice. BetG8 earns referral commission from some of the venues linked here. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER. Market prices, not predictions or advice. 18+.