Hegseth impeachment odds: Polymarket prices a House impeachment by December 31 at about 80% after Rep. Thomas Massie files eight updated articles
Massie first introduced articles against Hegseth in September, and House Republican leaders recessed early, pushing any vote to November, according to CBS News. Newsweek reports that Massie is using House Rule IX, which covers questions of privilege: if the resolution is ruled privileged, leaders must schedule it within a set deadline, although in past cases the House has voted to table or refer such resolutions instead of voting on the articles directly. Impeachment needs a simple majority in the House; removal would need a two-thirds vote in the Senate after a trial.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket prices from the public Gamma API, read at 16:52 UTC on November 10 (midpoint of best bid and ask):
| Polymarket contract | Yes price | 24h change | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026 | 79.8% | +3.7 pts | $84,668 |
| Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027 | 85.0% | +2.5 pts | $2,611 |
| Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027 | 89.5% | +6.5 pts | $2,426 |
| Hegseth first to be impeached (end of 2027 list) | 84.5% | +9.5 pts | $3,075 |
The December contract carries almost all of the volume. A separate "impeached and removed" market, which needs a Senate conviction, had a spread of 10 to 45 cents and almost no trading, so it gives no usable price. BetG8 read Polymarket only for this story. The price converts to roughly -395 in American odds; our odds converter shows the math.
What the contract resolves on
According to its rules, the December market resolves Yes if the House, by simple majority, approves one or more articles of impeachment against Hegseth between the market's creation and 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2026. A Senate trial, conviction or removal is not required. If Hegseth permanently leaves office before a Yes outcome, the market resolves No. The resolution source is federal government information, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback. That means a vote to table or refer the resolution would not resolve the market either way on its own; only a passed article counts. For how resolution works in general, see how prediction markets resolve.
What the articles allege and how each side responds
Per CBS News, three articles accuse Hegseth of abusing Defense Department powers by conducting military action against Iran without congressional authorization. Others concern the handling of civilian casualty rules, Pentagon boat strikes in the Caribbean, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and the Pentagon's scrutiny of Sen. Mark Kelly over a video. These are allegations in the resolution, not findings. Massie wrote that Hegseth "will remain a threat to the Constitution." Hegseth called the effort "sham articles of impeachment" from "a disgruntled, defeated congressman" and said "we're not worried about that," according to CBS. Massie lost his primary and is leaving Congress.
The vote count is the open question. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said he is a "hard yes." With a narrow Republican majority, some Republican votes would be needed. Speaker Mike Johnson said impeachment during hostilities abroad would be "a terrible, terrible look," while Reps. James Comer, French Hill and Don Bacon have not committed either way, per CBS. If impeached, Hegseth would be the third Cabinet secretary in US history to be impeached by the House, after William Belknap in 1876 and Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024.
What to watch next
Whether leaders bring the resolution up within the two-day window, and whether a motion to table or refer it comes first. A procedural vote would be the first real test of the count, and it is likely to move the December contract sharply in either direction. Hegseth said on Monday that he planned a news conference for Tuesday morning; BetG8 had not reviewed it at the time of the price read. Also watch the gap between the December and March contracts: it shows how much weight traders put on a vote slipping into the next Congress.
Method and limits
Prices come from the public Polymarket Gamma API at 16:52 UTC on November 10, 2026; 24-hour changes and volumes are as reported by the API. Contract rules are summarized from the market description. Facts about the resolution and reactions are from CBS News and Newsweek. BetG8 takes no position on the impeachment. Prices are not forecasts.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds Pete Hegseth is impeached?
At 16:52 UTC on November 10, 2026, Polymarket priced a House impeachment of Hegseth by December 31, 2026 at 79.8%, and by March 31, 2027 at 85.0%. These are market prices, not predictions.
What did Thomas Massie file?
An updated 34-page resolution with eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, introduced on the House floor on November 9, 2026, according to CBS News.
Does the Polymarket contract need Hegseth to be removed?
No. It resolves Yes if the House passes at least one article of impeachment by December 31, 2026. A Senate trial or conviction is not required. If Hegseth leaves office first, it resolves No.
Sources
- CBS News, Rep. Thomas Massie's Hegseth impeachment articles and House vote
- Newsweek, Pete Hegseth impeachment vote
- Polymarket Gamma API, Search: Hegseth impeached, read 16:52 UTC, November 10, 2026
- Polymarket, Pete Hegseth impeached by...?, read 16:52 UTC, November 10, 2026
18+ only. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice, and prices are not predictions. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.