Expected value, vig, and how sportsbooks and prediction markets actually price risk.
Fees for a $10,000 trade, leverage, liquidity, custody, KYC and each venue's worst day, side by side. Hyperliquid is slightly cheaper and fully transparent; Binance is six times bigger. Neither serves US residents.
DraftKings and FanDuel dropped sports, political and novelty contracts for Utah customers within 48 hours of the Kalshi charges; Fanatics leaves the state on November 4. The CFTC has asked Judge Shelby to stop Utah's cases.
The Series G prices Kalshi at $40 billion post-money, up from $22 billion in May and $5 billion a year ago. Kalshi says it runs at more than $1 trillion in annualized volume. Those figures are self-reported, and the legal map got worse the same week.
Reuters counted at least $5 million from the two companies and their founders, $2.7 million of it to Republicans, including $1 million from Polymarket to a Democratic dark-money group. A third went to state races, where the legal fight over sports contracts is being decided.
On October 20 Ohio told its sportsbooks, suppliers, integrity monitors and testing labs to stop providing liquidity, market making and technology to unlicensed sports prediction markets, or risk their licences. Four days earlier Polymarket US sued the state, arguing preemption and a Commerce Clause violation.
October 13, 2026Third-quarter net revenue of $710 million, up 7 percent, and adjusted EBITDA up 112 percent to $86 million, on 3 percent fewer players. Adam Greenblatt told analysts on 13 October the Supreme Court will find Congress never intended sports and casino-style event contracts, called the platforms' retreat "cosmetics in pursuit of survival," and what the low-end guidance implies for Q4.
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