Champions League odds, live: every club’s chance to win the 2027 final on Kalshi and Polymarket
Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes2027 Champions League winner
| Club | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 23.5% | 20.5% | +3.0 | +355 | Kalshi |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 18.5% | 19.5% | -1.0 | +426 | Polymarket |
| Arsenal | 14.5% | 13.5% | +1.0 | +614 | Kalshi |
| Real Madrid | 14.5% | 13.5% | +1.0 | +614 | Kalshi |
| Bayern Munich | 12.5% | 13.5% | -1.0 | +669 | Polymarket |
| Manchester City | 5.5% | 7.5% | -2.0 | +1438 | Polymarket |
| Liverpool | 3.6% | 3.5% | +0.1 | +2737 | – |
| Como | 2.4% | 2.0% | +0.3 | +4498 | – |
| Atlético Madrid | 1.6% | 1.5% | +0.1 | +6352 | – |
| Inter Milan | 1.4% | 1.5% | -0.1 | +6680 | – |
| Aston Villa | 1.0% | 1.5% | -0.5 | +7743 | – |
| Borussia Dortmund | 0.9% | 1.5% | -0.5 | +8063 | Polymarket |
| Manchester United | 1.0% | 1.0% | +0.0 | +9656 | – |
| Real Betis | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.3 | +11329 | – |
| Roma | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +12803 | – |
| Sporting CP | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13693 | Polymarket |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 | +14715 | Polymarket |
| Club Brugge | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 | +14715 | Polymarket |
| Galatasaray | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.8 | +15900 | Polymarket |
| Napoli | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.8 | +15900 | Polymarket |
| Villarreal | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| RB Leipzig | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Porto | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
How to read the table
Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a team at 12% costs 12 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.
How the league phase shapes the price
Each of the 36 clubs plays eight games in a single league table. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, the clubs ranked ninth to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off for the other eight places, and the rest are out. That gives the favorites a cushion that the old group stage did not, which is why the top of the market is crowded with four or five clubs priced in double figures. Prices react to injuries to key players, domestic form and, from the spring, the knockout draw. Venues also name clubs differently (PSG or Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico or Atlético Madrid); the table matches them so each club appears once.
Prediction market futures vs sportsbook futures
A sportsbook builds its margin into every futures price: add up the implied probability of every team’s odds on a typical title board and the total often comes to 120% or more, against roughly 100% on an exchange. That difference is the hold, and it is largest on long shots. Converting the exchange price to American odds lets you compare directly: if a book offers a team at +900 and the exchange prices it at 12% (about +733), the book is paying more for the same outcome; if the book offers +600, the exchange is the better price. Our price comparison tool does the conversion and this explainer covers how the vig works.
Why the same event has two prices
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.
Method and limits
Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favorite to win the Champions League?
The first row of the live table is the current favorite, ranked by the average of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices. Several clubs are usually close together, so the order changes with results and injuries.
When does the Champions League market settle?
After the final in 2027. Clubs knocked out in the league phase, the play-off or the knockout rounds fall to zero as soon as they are eliminated.
How do I turn these prices into sportsbook odds?
The price is the probability: 12 cents means 12%. Below 50%, American odds are 100 × (1 − p) / p, so 12% is about +733; above 50% they are −100 × p / (1 − p). Our odds converter handles any format.
Can I trade these markets from the US?
Kalshi offers sports event contracts in most US states, although several states have challenged them in court; check the 50-state tracker. Polymarket’s main venue is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate app with its own books.
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18+ only. Prediction market contracts and leveraged trading carry real financial risk. This page is market data and analysis, not betting, financial or legal advice. BetG8 earns referral commission from some of the venues linked here. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.