Moneyline, spread and totals explained: the three core bets, how each one pays, and what the same markets look like on a prediction exchange
One game, three markets
Every example on this page uses one invented NFL game so the numbers can be followed from start to finish. The board reads:
| Market | Favourite | Underdog | What decides it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -280 | +230 | Who wins the game |
| Point spread | -6.5 (-110) | +6.5 (-110) | Winning margin against 6.5 points |
| Total | Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110) | Combined points against 47.5 |
The minus sign marks the price you pay for the more likely outcome; the plus sign marks the profit on a $100 stake for the less likely one. DraftKings' own betting guide puts it in one line each: at -110 "you risk $110 to win $100," and a winning $110 bet returns $210 including the stake; at +320 a $100 bet profits $320 and returns $420.
The moneyline: who wins
A moneyline is, in the guide's words, "simply the bet for who will win." No handicap applies. On our board:
- $100 on the favourite at -280 profits $100 × 100 / 280 = $35.71, returning $135.71.
- $100 on the underdog at +230 profits $230, returning $330.
Converting each price to the probability it implies shows where the book's margin sits. For a minus price the formula is odds / (odds + 100): 280 / 380 = 73.68 percent. For a plus price it is 100 / (odds + 100): 100 / 330 = 30.30 percent. The two add up to 103.98 percent; the 3.98 points above 100 are the overround, the bookmaker's built-in edge on this market. Our implied probability guide shows how to strip that out to get a fair estimate, and the odds converter does the conversion for any price.
Moneylines get extreme quickly. A heavy favourite at -1000 needs to win more than 90.9 percent of the time just to break even, which is why many bettors look at the spread instead.
The point spread: by how much
A spread applies a handicap to each side. The favourite at -6.5 must win by 7 or more; the underdog at +6.5 covers if it wins outright or loses by 6 or fewer. Both sides are priced at -110, so the bet is roughly a coin flip with a fee attached.
| Final score (fav–dog) | Margin | Favourite -6.5 | Underdog +6.5 | Total 47.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27–20 | 7 | Wins | Loses | Under (47) |
| 24–20 | 4 | Loses | Wins | Under (44) |
| 31–20 | 11 | Wins | Loses | Over (51) |
| 20–23 | -3 | Loses | Wins | Under (43) |
At -110 the break-even rate is 110 / 210 = 52.38 percent. Two sides at -110 imply 104.76 percent together, a hold of about 4.55 percent if the book takes equal money on each side, as our vig guide works through. Baseball and hockey use the same idea with a fixed line: the run line and puck line are spreads of 1.5 runs or goals, with the price, not the line, moving to balance the market.
Hooks, whole numbers and pushes
The half point in -6.5 is called the hook, and its job is to make a tie impossible. With a whole-number line the result can land exactly on it. DraftKings' house rules say that "if a whole number is offered as the point spread or handicap, bets will be settled as Push" when the result ties after the line is applied, and a push means "bets are returned/refunded." On a -7 line, a 27–20 result returns every stake on both sides. In the NFL, where scoring comes in threes and sevens, the difference between -6.5, -7 and -7.5 is worth more than it looks, which is why books often move the price rather than the line around those numbers.
Totals: how many points
A total, or over/under, is a bet on a number rather than a team. The resort guides describe over/unders as bets on "a value provided for one of many statistical categories": the final combined score, one team's score, or a player statistic. On our board, 47.5 combined points is the line, both sides at -110. A 27–20 game totals 47 and the under wins; 31–20 totals 51 and the over wins. As with spreads, a whole-number total such as 47 can push.
Totals are independent of the result, which makes them a common way to have an opinion on pace or weather without picking a winner. The same break-even arithmetic applies: at -110 on both sides you need to be right 52.38 percent of the time.
Overtime, two-way and three-way lines
Whether overtime counts is set by each book's house rules, not by the bet type, and it is the most common source of confusion. DraftKings' Massachusetts house rules separate two kinds of moneyline. A two-way moneyline, with no draw option, includes "results from any overtime and/or shootout." A three-way moneyline, which the rules note is "sometimes referred to as... 60 Minute Line in Hockey," does not, and a regulation tie wins for anyone who picked the draw. For baseball, the same rules include extra innings in most bets but void totals on a game that does not go nine innings (8.5 if the home team leads). Read the sport-specific section of your book's rules before treating any line as full-game.
The same three markets on a prediction exchange
CFTC-regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US list game outcomes as yes/no contracts that pay $1 if the event happens and nothing if it does not, and for many games they also list spread and total questions in the same format, such as whether a team wins by more than a stated margin. The price in cents is the market's probability. A favourite's winner contract at 74 cents corresponds to 74 percent, close to the -280 moneyline's 73.68 percent.
The fee is charged separately. Kalshi's fee schedule sets the taker fee at 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent. Worked through for 100 contracts at 74 cents:
- Cost of contracts: 100 × $0.74 = $74.00
- Fee: 0.07 × 100 × 0.74 × 0.26 = $1.3468, rounded up to $1.35
- Total outlay $75.35; payout if the favourite wins $100; profit $24.65
- Equivalent American odds: -(75.35 / 24.65) × 100 = -306
So in this example the sportsbook's -280 pays more per dollar than buying at 74 cents. Had the contract traded at 72 cents, the fee would be $1.42, the outlay $73.42 and the equivalent price about -276, slightly better than the book. The comparison changes game by game, which is the point of checking both; the sportsbook vs exchange comparison tool runs it for any pair of prices. Exchange contracts also differ in what they settle on, so check the contract rules for overtime the same way you would a sportsbook's house rules.
What this guide does not cover
Parlays, teasers and same-game combinations are built from these three markets but price very differently; see our parlay calculator. Player props, futures and live in-game lines follow the same odds arithmetic with different settlement rules. Whether sports betting or sports event contracts are legal where you are depends on your state; the 50-state tracker covers prediction markets. Fee figures are as of October 2026 and can change. Nothing here is a recommendation to bet or trade.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between a moneyline and a spread?
A moneyline is decided only by who wins, with the price adjusted for how likely each side is. A spread adds a handicap, so the favourite must win by more than the line and the underdog covers by losing by less than it or winning outright. Spreads are usually priced near -110 on both sides.
What does -110 mean?
You stake $110 to win $100, so a winning $110 bet returns $210. The break-even win rate is 110 / 210, or 52.38 percent.
What is a push?
A tie against the line, possible only when the spread or total is a whole number. Under typical house rules, including DraftKings', a push refunds the stake.
Does overtime count in a total or spread?
It depends on the book's house rules and the market. DraftKings' Massachusetts rules include overtime and shootouts in two-way moneylines and exclude them from three-way (60-minute) lines; check the sport-specific rules for spreads and totals.
How do I compare a prediction market price with a moneyline?
Treat the cent price as a probability, add the exchange fee to the cost, and convert the profit per dollar risked back into American odds. In the example on this page, a 74-cent contract with Kalshi's fee works out to about -306, against a sportsbook price of -280.
Related
- Odds converter: American, decimal, fractional and implied probability
- Implied probability explained: odds to percent, vig out
- What is the vig? How sportsbook margin works
- Sportsbook vs prediction market: how the two models price the same game
- Is Kalshi legal in your state? The 50-state tracker
Sources
- DraftKings Sportsbook at Foxwoods, DraftKings betting guide (PDF), for the moneyline, point spread, push, pick'em, run line and puck line definitions and the -110 and +320 payout examples.
- Resorts Casino Hotel Atlantic City, Sports betting guide, for the over/under and push definitions.
- Massachusetts Gaming Commission, DraftKings house rules, 18 August 2025 (PDF), sections II(C) and III and the baseball rules, for overtime, shootouts, two-way and three-way moneylines, whole-number pushes and minimum innings.
- Kalshi, Fee schedule (PDF), for the taker fee formula and rounding rule, as of October 2026.
18+ only. This guide explains how bets and contracts are priced. It is not legal, tax, financial or betting advice, and it is not a recommendation to wager. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.