Live market data
2026 Midterm Election Odds: Polymarket vs Kalshi
Polymarket traders give Democrats a 91.5% chance of winning the House and 66.5% for the Senate. On Kalshi the same contracts trade at 90.6% and 62.0%.
House control · Polymarket
91.5%
Democrats · Republicans 8.5%
Volume $21.4M · Trade on Polymarket →
Senate control · Polymarket
66.5%
Democrats · Republicans 33.5%
Volume $9.0M · Trade on Polymarket →
Most likely outcome
67%
Democrats Sweep
Balance of power market · $36.9M traded · Trade →
Polymarket vs Kalshi: who controls Congress
| Contract | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats win the House | 91.5% | 90.6% | +0.9 pts |
| Republicans win the House | 8.5% | 9.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Democrats win the Senate | 66.5% | 62.0% | +4.5 pts |
| Republicans win the Senate | 33.5% | 37.0% | -3.5 pts |
Kalshi figures are the last traded price. A positive gap means Polymarket prices the outcome higher. Compare fees before reading a gap as an opportunity: see Kalshi vs Polymarket fees.
Balance of power after November 3
| Scenario | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | 66.5% | 0.0 |
| R Senate, D House | 25.5% | +1.0 |
| Republicans Sweep | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| D Senate, R House | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| Other | 0.1% | 0.0 |
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Key Senate races
| Race | Favorite | Price | 24h (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | James Talarico (D) | 63.5% | 0.0 |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) | 63.5% | -1.0 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 71.5% | 0.0 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | 66.5% | -2.5 |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | 75.5% | +1.0 |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | 62.5% | +1.5 |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | 58.0% | +0.5 |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham Nordone (R) | 80.5% | +1.0 |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | 74.5% | +1.0 |
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | 96.0% | -1.0 |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas (D) | 91.5% | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 85.5% | -2.0 |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | 87.5% | 0.0 |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | 95.5% | -0.8 |
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold?
| Seats | Probability |
|---|---|
| ≤47 | 39.5% |
| 48 | 18.0% |
| 49 | 10.5% |
| 50 | 11.0% |
| 51 | 8.5% |
| 52 | 7.1% |
| 53 | 6.8% |
| 54 | 1.3% |
| 55 | 0.8% |
| 56 | 0.3% |
| 57+ | 0.3% |
Governor races to watch
| Race | Favorite | Price | 24h (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 86.5% | +0.7 |
| Ohio | Amy Acton (D) | 81.5% | -1.0 |
| Texas | Greg Abbott (R) | 68.8% | -2.3 |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley (D) | 80.5% | 0.0 |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford (D) | 68.5% | +1.0 |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson (D) | 94.0% | -0.3 |
| Florida | Byron Donalds (R) | 81.5% | -1.0 |
| Iowa | Rob Sand (D) | 87.5% | 0.0 |
| New York | Kathy Hochul (D) | 95.5% | -0.1 |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) | 61.5% | -0.5 |
How to read these odds
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens, so a price of 64 cents means the market puts the chance at about 64%. Prices are set by traders, not by BetG8, and can move fast on polls, news and liquidity. Small differences between venues are normal and reflect fees, spreads and who is allowed to trade where. Nothing on this page is a forecast, a recommendation or betting advice. Learn the mechanics in our guides to how election prediction markets work and implied probability.
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored to win the House in 2026?
- As of October 25, 2026, Polymarket prices the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win the House and the Republican Party at 8.5%. Kalshi's House contract shows Democrats at 90.6%. These are market prices, not forecasts by BetG8.
- Who is favored to win the Senate in 2026?
- As of October 25, 2026, Polymarket prices Democrats at 66.5% and Republicans at 33.5% to control the Senate; Kalshi shows Democrats at 62.0%.
- How do I read prediction market odds?
- A contract that pays $1 if an outcome happens and trades at 62 cents implies a 62% probability. Prices move as traders buy and sell, so they reflect the market view at that moment and include fees and spreads, not a guarantee.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different numbers?
- They are separate exchanges with different traders, fees, liquidity and access rules. Small gaps of one or two points are normal; larger gaps usually close as arbitrage traders step in.
- When is the 2026 midterm election?
- Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Markets settle on certified or officially called results under each venue’s rules.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi public market data, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.