Stephen Curry injury update: MRI confirms an oblique tear and a two-week re-evaluation, while the Warriors title price holds at 2.3% on Polymarket
Our first report on the injury, written Thursday morning before any diagnosis, covered the play in Houston and Steve Kerr's comment that "concern is high." The team's update now gives a name to the injury and a first checkpoint. According to the Warriors, the MRI was taken the same night. Yahoo Sports reports Curry is expected to be out at least two weeks. NBA.com notes he entered the game averaging 30.6 points per game, second in the NBA, and had been Golden State's leading scorer in six of its eight straight wins before Wednesday's loss ended the streak.
What the market is pricing
Prices from BetG8's live NBA championship odds page (18:17 UTC) and NBA MVP odds page (18:18 UTC), plus the public Polymarket API for Friday's game (about 18:20 UTC). Our morning reads at 09:15 to 09:17 UTC, before the diagnosis, are shown for comparison.
| Market | Polymarket now | Kalshi now | Morning read (PM / Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Title: Golden State Warriors | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% / 3.5% |
| Title: San Antonio Spurs | 22.5% | 21.5% | 22.5% / 21.5% |
| Title: Oklahoma City Thunder | 14.5% | 13.5% | n/a |
| MVP: Stephen Curry | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% / 1.5% |
| Friday: Warriors at Spurs, Warriors win | 15.5% | n/a | 19.5% / n/a |
The striking thing is how little the season-long prices moved on the confirmation. The Warriors title contract is flat on Kalshi and slightly higher on Polymarket than in the morning, and Curry's MVP price is unchanged. The single-game market moved most: Golden State's chance to win at San Antonio on Friday dropped from 19.5% to about 15.5% on Polymarket, which is consistent with traders now treating Curry as out for that game. A 2.3% title price converts to roughly +4250 in American odds; our odds converter shows the math.
Why the title price barely moved
Most of the repricing happened Wednesday night. Before tip-off on November 11, Kalshi had the Warriors at 5.5%; it fell to 3.5% after Curry left the game and has stayed there. In other words, the market priced a multi-week absence as the likely outcome before the MRI result was public, and the confirmation of a tear with a two-week re-evaluation, rather than a longer stated timeline, did not push it lower. A re-evaluation date is a checkpoint, not a return date, and oblique injuries can linger, so the two-week figure is a minimum rather than an estimate of when he plays.
What it means for the MVP race
Curry's MVP price was already a long shot at about 2% on both venues. Award markets weigh availability heavily, because players generally need to appear in 65 games to be eligible, and every missed game reduces the margin for error later in the season. The MVP board remains led by Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama, and nothing in today's news changes that ordering.
What to watch next
The re-evaluation falls around November 26, and any update before then on whether Curry has resumed shooting or on-court work would be the first signal. In the meantime, watch the Warriors' results without him starting with Friday's game at San Antonio, the title favorite. If Golden State loses several games in a row, the title price is more likely to drift than to jump. The gap between the venues, Kalshi 1.2 points above Polymarket, is worth tracking on our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison.
Method and limits
Title and MVP prices come from BetG8's live pages, which read the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API every five minutes, stamped 18:17 and 18:18 UTC on November 12, 2026. The game price is the midpoint of best bid and best ask on Polymarket, read at about 18:20 UTC. Injury details are from the Warriors, Yahoo Sports and NBA.com. These are market prices, not predictions, and not forecasts by BetG8.
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Frequently asked questions
What is Stephen Curry's injury?
The Warriors said an MRI confirmed an oblique abdominal tear. He left the November 11 game at Houston in the first quarter.
How long will Stephen Curry be out?
The team said he will be re-evaluated in two weeks, around November 26, 2026. Yahoo Sports reports he is expected to miss at least two weeks; no return date has been given.
What are the Warriors' championship odds now?
At 18:17 UTC on November 12, 2026, Golden State was 2.3% on Polymarket and 3.5% on Kalshi to win the 2027 NBA title. These are market prices, not predictions.
Sources
- Golden State Warriors, Stephen Curry injury update
- Yahoo Sports, Warriors' Stephen Curry out at least 2 weeks after suffering oblique abdominal tear
- NBA.com, Stephen Curry injury coverage
- BetG8, NBA championship odds, live, read 18:17 UTC, November 12, 2026
18+ only. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice, and prices are not predictions. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.