No. 1 Miami is a 30% underdog at Notre Dame tonight: Kalshi has the Irish at 71%, Polymarket at 70.5%
What the market is pricing
The game market is the cleanest read on tonight. Kalshi quoted Notre Dame at 70 cents bid and 71 cents asked, with Miami at 29 and 30 cents; the Kalshi prices below are the last trades. Polymarket's moneyline market sat at 70.5 cents for Notre Dame and 29.5 cents for Miami. The two venues agree to within one point.
| Game market, Nov 7 | Kalshi | Polymarket | American odds (Polymarket) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame to win | 71% | 70.5% | -239 |
| Miami to win | 30% | 29.5% | +239 |
Kalshi's two sides add up to 101%, which is the spread between bid and ask, not a mistake. Trading was heavy: Kalshi showed about 1.84 million contracts traded on the Miami side and about 337,000 on the Notre Dame side, and Polymarket's event, including its spread lines, had about $195,000 of volume.
| National title, Nov 7 | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 22% | 24.75% |
| Notre Dame | 14% | 14.5% |
| Miami | 10% | 11.15% |
In the title market Georgia leads on both venues, and Notre Dame is priced a few points above Miami even though Miami sits nine places higher in the committee's ranking. The full board is on the live college football championship odds page.
How the two teams got here
Miami is unbeaten after a 38-35 win over North Carolina last week, and the committee put it first when the playoff rankings were released on November 3, according to Sports Illustrated. Notre Dame's only loss came on the road at BYU three weeks ago; it beat Navy 35-13 last Saturday, per Field Level Media.
Miami won last season's meeting 27-24. Its quarterback, Darian Mensah, has 2,425 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and one interception. Notre Dame's CJ Carr has 18 touchdown passes and one interception. The biggest change is on Miami's side: Field Level Media reports that wide receiver Malachi Toney, who has 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns, hurt his ankle in practice on Wednesday and is expected to miss at least four weeks.
Why a No. 1 team can trade as an underdog
A ranking and a price answer different questions. The committee grades what a team has done so far: wins, opponents and margins. A game market prices one Saturday night: who is at home, how the matchup looks and who is available. Notre Dame is at home, and Miami is playing its first game since losing its most productive receiver.
The gap is not small. At 29.5 to 30 cents, the market gives Miami roughly a three-in-ten chance. That is a price, not a forecast from BetG8, and prices of this size are wrong often: a 30% outcome should happen about three times in ten.
What the result means for the title race
Field Level Media framed the game as Notre Dame's chance to build a playoff case against the top team. A win for the Irish would also hand Miami its first loss before the committee's next ranking on Tuesday, November 10. The title prices above already lean that way, with Notre Dame at 14% to 14.5% and Miami at 10% to 11.15%.
What to watch next
Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, per NBC Sports. Watch the final injury news for Miami's receivers, how far the game price moves in the first quarter, and the committee's November 10 ranking. Title prices on both venues update on the live odds page every five minutes.
Method and limits
Game and title prices were read from the Kalshi and Polymarket public market data at 14:49 UTC on November 7, 2026. Kalshi figures are last-trade prices; Polymarket figures are the displayed outcome prices. American odds are converted from the Polymarket price with no vig removed. Contract counts are not dollar volume. Team statistics come from the sources below and may change after tonight's game. Prices move quickly before and during a game, so the figures here will be out of date within minutes of kickoff.
LIVE MARKETCollege Football National ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- College football title odds, live on Kalshi and Polymarket
- Polymarket market: Miami vs Notre Dame
- Polymarket market: 2027 CFP national champion
- Odds converter
- Implied probability explained
Frequently asked questions
What are the Miami vs Notre Dame odds?
As of 14:49 UTC on November 7, 2026, Kalshi's game market priced Notre Dame at 71% and Miami at 30%. Polymarket priced Notre Dame at 70.5% and Miami at 29.5%. On the Polymarket price that is about -239 for Notre Dame and +239 for Miami in American odds.
When and where is Miami vs Notre Dame?
Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC, with streaming on Peacock.
Why is the No. 1 team the underdog?
The College Football Playoff ranking grades a team's results to date. A game market prices one game: home field, the matchup and current injuries. Miami's leading receiver, Malachi Toney, is reported to be out for at least four weeks with a high ankle injury.
Sources
- Field Level Media, No. 11 Notre Dame aims to make CFP case against No. 1 Miami, November 4, 2026
- Sports Illustrated, College Football Playoff rankings set up a potentially chaotic Week 11, November 4, 2026
- NBC Sports Boston, Miami vs. Notre Dame: how to watch
- Kalshi, Miami (FL) vs Notre Dame game market, read 14:49 UTC, November 7, 2026
- Polymarket, Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame and 2027 CFP national champion, read 14:49 UTC, November 7, 2026
- BetG8, College football title odds, live
18+ only. This page reports live market prices and team news from public sources. It is not betting, financial or investment advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.