Texas vs LSU score: Longhorns rally to win 22-21 with two seconds left, and their title price climbs to 10.5%
This follows our Saturday preview of the week’s biggest games, which had Texas as the underdog on the road.
What happened
Texas scored first. Manning finished an 11-play, 75-yard opening drive with a one-yard run, according to Field Level Media. LSU answered with two touchdown passes from Sam Leavitt to Jackson Harris, from 10 and nine yards. The second came after Ty Benefield returned a Manning interception 31 yards to the Texas 7. A 42-yard field goal by Gianni Spetic made it 14-10 to LSU at halftime.
The gap grew to 11 points with 5:52 left in the third quarter, when Dilin Jones broke a 44-yard touchdown run. Jones finished with 125 rushing yards. From that point LSU did not score again. Crescent City Sports reported that the Tigers punted on each of their final four possessions, three of them after three plays, and missed a 38-yard field goal along the way.
Texas closed the distance with field goals. Spetic hit from 41 yards late in the third quarter and from 50 early in the fourth, which cut the deficit to 21-16. The Longhorns then took over at their own 42 with 2:19 to play. During that drive the ball came loose and the officials on the field ruled it a fumble. Replay overturned the call, KSAT reported, and Texas kept possession with 22 seconds left. Twelve plays and 58 yards after the drive began, Manning threw a screen pass to Brown, who scored from four yards out with two seconds on the clock.
It was not a clean night for either quarterback. Manning completed 19 of 35 passes for 174 yards and was intercepted three times, in a game played not far from his hometown of New Orleans. Leavitt threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns, but Texas defender Jelani McDonald intercepted him three times, twice in the end zone. LSU outgained Texas 366 yards to 273 and was penalized 11 times for 93 yards.
Texas is now 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the SEC. LSU is 6-4 and 3-4 in Lane Kiffin’s first season in charge.
What the market is pricing
Prices below are from BetG8’s live college football national championship odds page, stamped 05:09 UTC on November 15. Each is the price of a contract that pays $1 if the team wins the title. Pregame prices for Texas were read at 11:43 UTC on November 14.
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 35.9% | 34.5% | Beat Missouri 48-21 on Saturday |
| Notre Dame | 18.5% | 15.5% | Polymarket 3.0 points higher |
| Alabama | 11.7% | 11.5% | Venues within 0.2 points |
| Texas | 10.2% | 10.5% | Up 1.9 and 2.0 points from 8.3% and 8.5% before kickoff |
| Miami | 10.4% | 8.5% | Polymarket 1.9 points higher |
| Indiana | 6.9% | 8.5% | Kalshi 1.6 points higher |
| LSU | 0.8% | 1.0% | Fourth loss of the season |
The move in Texas is about two points on each venue. That is small next to Georgia’s jump the same night, covered in our piece on Georgia’s title price after Missouri, but the context is different. Before kickoff, Kalshi’s game market priced a Texas win at 39%, and ESPN listed LSU as a 5.5-point favorite. A team that was expected to lose more often than not avoided a third defeat instead.
The in-game read tells the same story from the other side. When BetG8 read the title market at 02:08 UTC, with the game in progress, Texas sat at 8.8% on Polymarket and 8.5% on Kalshi. The price barely moved while the Longhorns trailed and stepped up only once the result was in.
Why it matters
For Texas the result is mostly about what did not happen. Two losses keep a team inside the 12-team College Football Playoff picture; a third would have put that at risk with the committee’s next rankings two days away. Field Level Media noted that this was the Longhorns’ fifth win of the season over a ranked opponent, a record the committee tends to reward.
For LSU the loss is close to final. Crescent City Sports wrote that the Tigers have played themselves out of playoff contention, and the market agrees: a price near 1% is where both venues park teams they no longer expect to reach the bracket. CBS Sports had LSU winless in three games against ranked opponents coming into the night.
Manning’s own award market did not respond. He is priced at 0.5% on Polymarket and 1.0% on Kalshi on the live Heisman Trophy odds page, which is consistent with a stat line of three interceptions and 174 yards, whatever the final play looked like. A market price is what traders are paying at one moment, not a forecast by BetG8.
What to watch next
Texas hosts Arkansas in Austin on Saturday, November 21, with kickoff set for 2:30 p.m. local time, according to KSAT. LSU travels to Tennessee the same day.
The playoff committee publishes its next rankings on Tuesday. From November those releases move title prices more than almost anything short of a result, and Texas, ranked sixth coming into the weekend, will be one of the teams to watch. Game lines for next weekend will appear on the College football odds today page once Polymarket lists them. The national championship contracts settle after the title game in January 2027.
Method: market prices were read from BetG8’s live odds page in this run. Game details are from Field Level Media, KSAT, USA TODAY and Crescent City Sports.
LIVE MARKETPro Football 2027 ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- College football national championship odds, live
- College football odds today
- Heisman Trophy odds, live
- Georgia national championship odds after Missouri
- College football odds: Texas at LSU, Georgia, Utah
- College Football Playoff rankings: Utah No. 2 and title odds
- Kalshi vs Polymarket odds on every shared market
Frequently asked questions
What was the Texas vs LSU score?
Texas beat LSU 22-21 on Saturday, November 14, 2026, at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. The Longhorns trailed 21-10 in the third quarter and won on a four-yard touchdown pass from Arch Manning to Raleek Brown with two seconds left.
What are Texas national championship odds after beating LSU?
At 05:09 UTC on November 15, 2026, Texas was priced at 10.5% on Kalshi and 10.2% on Polymarket to win the 2026 college football national championship, up from 8.5% and 8.3% before kickoff. These are market prices, not predictions.
Who does Texas play next?
Texas hosts Arkansas in Austin on Saturday, November 21, 2026. LSU plays at Tennessee the same day. The College Football Playoff committee releases its next rankings on Tuesday, November 17.
Sources
- Field Level Media, Arch Manning redeems himself with late TD to lift No. 6 Texas past No. 21 LSU
- KSAT, Texas rallies from 11-point deficit to defeat LSU at Death Valley
- USA TODAY via Yahoo Sports, Arch Manning had 3 INTs vs LSU. His last-second TD lifted Longhorns to a road win
- Crescent City Sports, LSU falters in another fourth quarter to lose to Texas in final seconds
- Polymarket, 2026 college football national champion, read 05:09 UTC
- Kalshi, College football national champion market, read 05:09 UTC
- BetG8, College football national championship odds, live, read 05:09 UTC
Market prices, not predictions or advice. 18+. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.