College football national championship odds, live: who wins the 2026 title on Kalshi and Polymarket
Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes2026 college football national champion
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Bulldogs | 24.8% | 22.5% | +2.2 | +323 | Kalshi |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14.5% | 15.0% | -0.5 | +578 | Polymarket |
| Miami Hurricanes | 11.2% | 9.5% | +1.7 | +869 | Kalshi |
| LSU Tigers | 10.3% | 9.5% | +0.7 | +913 | Kalshi |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 7.8% | 8.5% | -0.6 | +1123 | Polymarket |
| Texas Longhorns | 6.8% | 6.5% | +0.3 | +1404 | – |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 6.5% | 4.5% | +2.0 | +1718 | Kalshi |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 4.8% | 5.5% | -0.8 | +1851 | Polymarket |
| Mississippi Rebels | 4.1% | 4.5% | -0.4 | +2226 | – |
| Utah | – | 2.5% | – | +3900 | – |
| UCLA | – | 2.5% | – | +3900 | – |
| BYU | – | 2.0% | – | +4900 | – |
| USC Trojans | 1.7% | 1.0% | +0.7 | +7307 | Kalshi |
| Florida Gators | 1.1% | 1.0% | +0.1 | +9656 | – |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.2 | +11011 | – |
| Oregon Ducks | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 | +14715 | Polymarket |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Michigan Wolverines | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
2026 Heisman Trophy winner
| Player | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 37.0% | 37.5% | -0.5 | +168 | Polymarket |
| Darian Mensah | 28.0% | 29.0% | -1.0 | +251 | Polymarket |
| CJ Carr | 14.2% | 14.5% | -0.4 | +598 | – |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 8.9% | 9.5% | -0.6 | +984 | Polymarket |
| Sam Leavitt | 5.1% | 3.5% | +1.6 | +2239 | Kalshi |
| LaNorris Sellers | 2.1% | 1.0% | +1.1 | +6352 | Kalshi |
| Devon Dampier | – | 1.5% | – | +6567 | – |
| Drew Mestemaker | 1.2% | 1.5% | -0.3 | +7307 | – |
| Jesse Legree | 1.6% | 1.0% | +0.5 | +7743 | Kalshi |
| Gunner Stockton | 1.0% | 1.5% | -0.5 | +7743 | – |
| Keelon Russell | 1.3% | 1.0% | +0.3 | +8596 | – |
| Jayden Maiava | 1.2% | 1.0% | +0.2 | +8991 | – |
| Julian Sayin | 1.1% | 1.0% | +0.1 | +9202 | – |
| Kevin Jennings | 1.1% | 1.0% | +0.1 | +9424 | – |
| Kewan Lacy | 1.1% | 1.0% | +0.1 | +9656 | – |
| Arch Manning | 1.0% | 1.0% | +0.0 | +9656 | – |
| Ahmad Hardy | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0 | +9900 | – |
| Bo Jackson | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0 | +9900 | – |
| Josh Hoover | 1.0% | 1.0% | -0.0 | +9900 | – |
| Bryce Underwood | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.2 | +11011 | – |
How to read the table
Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a team at 12% costs 12 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.
What moves college football futures in November
The playoff selection committee publishes its rankings every week from early November, and each release reprices the field: a team that slips out of the projected bracket can lose half its price overnight, while a conference-title path can add several points. Upsets matter more than in the NFL because the season is short and one loss can decide a seeding. Kalshi lists more teams than Polymarket, so smaller programs often appear with a dash in the Polymarket column. For how the preseason picture compared, see our preseason rankings and title odds.
Prediction market futures vs sportsbook futures
A sportsbook builds its margin into every futures price: add up the implied probability of every team’s odds on a typical title board and the total often comes to 120% or more, against roughly 100% on an exchange. That difference is the hold, and it is largest on long shots. Converting the exchange price to American odds lets you compare directly: if a book offers a team at +900 and the exchange prices it at 12% (about +733), the book is paying more for the same outcome; if the book offers +600, the exchange is the better price. Our price comparison tool does the conversion and this explainer covers how the vig works.
Why the same event has two prices
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.
Method and limits
Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favorite to win the college football national championship?
The first row of the live table is the current favorite across Kalshi and Polymarket. The order changes most on rankings day and after conference championship weekend.
When does the national championship market settle?
After the College Football Playoff national championship game in January 2027. Teams that miss the playoff or are eliminated go to zero along the way.
Why are some teams named differently on each venue?
Kalshi often uses the school name (Texas, Miami (FL)) while Polymarket adds the mascot (Texas Longhorns, Miami Hurricanes). We match the two so each team appears once.
Can I trade these markets from the US?
Kalshi offers sports event contracts in most US states, although several states have challenged them in court; check the 50-state tracker. Polymarket’s main venue is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate app with its own books.
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