Bitcoin ETF outflows in 2026: US spot funds are now $1.56 billion in the red for the year as Polymarket prices a dip to $65,000 at 68.5%
The flow figures add a second layer to Friday's price story. Bitcoin fell below $70,000 early in the day for the first time since August, as covered in our report on the break and the liquidations that followed. The ETF data shows that the selling is not only coming from leveraged futures traders. The regulated funds that brought tens of billions of dollars into bitcoin over the previous two years have been net sellers for most of the past three weeks.
What happened
CoinDesk reported on Friday that the group of US spot bitcoin ETFs is in net outflow for 2026 by $1.56 billion, using SoSoValue data. The swing has been fast. On October 29 the funds were still up about $1.01 billion for the year. A single session on October 30 removed $643.3 million of that, and the three weeks since have all been negative.
| Period | Net flow | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 year to date, on October 29 | about +$1.01 billion | SoSoValue via CoinDesk |
| Two weeks ago | -$1.28 billion | SoSoValue via CoinDesk |
| Last week | -$202.6 million | SoSoValue via CoinDesk |
| This week, through Thursday | -$643.6 million | SoSoValue via CoinDesk |
| 2026 year to date, now | -$1.56 billion | SoSoValue via CoinDesk |
Farside Investors' daily figures, as reported by Coinpaper, show how the latest run built up: $430.2 million left the funds on November 5 and $411.9 million on November 6, followed by $95.0 million on November 10, $299.8 million on November 11 and a preliminary $47.7 million on November 12, the sixth consecutive session of net outflows. Thursday's redemptions were led by Bitwise's BITB at $26.4 million, ARK 21Shares' ARKB at $18.5 million and VanEck's HODL at $6.1 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT was one of the few funds to take in money, at $3.3 million.
CoinDesk adds a useful measure of how unusual the year has been. This is the twelfth week of 2026 with net outflows above $500 million. There were 15 such weeks in the whole of 2025 and four in 2024, so four more in the final six weeks of the year would set a record.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket's bitcoin price contracts pay out if bitcoin touches the named level before the deadline. Prices are bid and ask midpoints read at 17:10 UTC, and the earlier column is the reading our markets desk took at 13:43 UTC.
| Polymarket contract, by December 31 | 13:43 UTC | 17:10 UTC | 24h change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dip to $65,000 | 56.5% | 68.5% | +23 pts |
| Dip to $60,000 | 29.5% | 36.5% | +11 pts |
| Dip to $55,000 | n/a | 14.5% | +4 pts |
| Dip to $50,000 | n/a | 9.7% | +4.6 pts |
| Reach $90,000 | n/a | 7.5% | -7 pts |
The $65,000 contract has gained 12 points in under four hours and 23 in a day. With bitcoin at $68,829.02 the level is about 5.6% away, and Friday's low on Binance was $67,568.00. The spot funds themselves are trading in line with the coin: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was at $38.90 at 17:09 UTC, down 3.62% on the day and about a third below its 52-week high of $58.70, according to Twelve Data. Funding and positioning on perpetual futures are on our live crypto funding rates page.
Why it matters
Spot ETFs were the main source of new demand for bitcoin after they launched. CoinDesk's figures put net inflows at about $35.24 billion in 2024 and $21.37 billion in 2025. A year that ends negative would be the first since the products began trading, and it changes the role the funds play in the market: when holders redeem, the issuers have to sell bitcoin, so sustained outflows add supply at the same time as prices are falling. CoinDesk attributes much of the current sell-off to the speed of those redemptions.
The wider backdrop is not helping. Markets price a Federal Reserve rate increase in December as close to certain, as shown on our Fed rate decision odds page, and higher yields raise the bar for assets that pay no income. An index decision on Strategy has also added to the pressure on bitcoin-linked equities, as covered in our report on MSCI and Strategy. Flows can reverse as quickly as they turned, and the year-to-date figure is small next to the money that came in over the previous two years.
What to watch next
Friday's flow data, published after the US close, will show whether the streak reaches seven sessions and whether the largest funds are taking part. The weekly total matters for the record CoinDesk describes: the count of weeks with more than $500 million of outflows stands at 12, against 15 last year. On the price side, the $67,568.00 low is the nearest reference point, and the Polymarket contracts at $65,000 and $60,000 will show how traders read each move. Large individual positions can be followed on our Hyperliquid whale tracker.
Method and limits
Flow figures come from two data providers, SoSoValue and Farside, as reported by CoinDesk and Coinpaper. The providers can differ slightly from each other, and the latest daily figure is preliminary. Bitcoin and ETF prices are single readings from Binance and Twelve Data at the times shown, and Polymarket prices will keep moving. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8 or investment advice.
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Frequently asked questions
Are bitcoin ETFs seeing outflows in 2026?
Yes. US spot bitcoin ETFs are in net outflow for 2026 by about $1.56 billion, according to SoSoValue data analysed by CoinDesk on November 13, 2026. On October 29 they were still up about $1.01 billion for the year.
How many days in a row have bitcoin ETFs had outflows?
Farside data reported by Coinpaper shows six consecutive sessions of net outflows through November 12, 2026, including $430.2 million on November 5, $411.9 million on November 6 and a preliminary $47.7 million on November 12.
What are the odds bitcoin falls to $65,000?
On Polymarket, the contract on bitcoin dipping to $65,000 by December 31, 2026 was priced at 68.5% at 17:10 UTC on November 13, up 23 points in a day. This is a market price, not a prediction.
Sources
- CoinDesk, Bitcoin ETFs are now down over $1.5 billion in net outflows for the year
- Coinpaper (Farside data), Bitcoin ETFs bleed for sixth straight day
- Polymarket, What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026, read 17:10 UTC
- Binance and Twelve Data, BTCUSDT spot and IBIT quotes, read 17:09 UTC
Market prices, not predictions or advice. 18+. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.