Donald Trump Jr., Kalshi and Polymarket: Kalshi ends his adviser role over his firm's stake in its biggest rival
The Reuters report, first published Thursday and also covered by Bloomberg, says conversations about ending the contract began in August, after 1789 Capital led Polymarket's most recent funding round, and that Kalshi reached out to Trump Jr. in the fall to discuss the conflict of interest. Kalshi said it was "grateful for his contributions in helping us market Kalshi to more customers." Trump Jr., Polymarket and 1789 Capital did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.
What the market is pricing
There is no contract on Kalshi's adviser roster, so the market layer here is the two venues' prices on the same events. The table below is from BetG8's live Kalshi vs Polymarket odds page, stamped 21:03 UTC on November 12, 2026, and lists the five widest gaps.
| Market | Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 NBA MVP | Luka Doncic | 35.5% | 32.5% | +3.0 |
| 2026-27 NBA MVP | Victor Wembanyama | 37.0% | 39.5% | -2.5 |
| 2027 Stanley Cup | Minnesota Wild | 7.2% | 9.5% | -2.3 |
| 2026 NFL MVP | Jordan Love | 10.3% | 12.5% | -2.2 |
| Super Bowl LXI | Kansas City Chiefs | 9.6% | 7.5% | +2.0 |
Gaps of two to three points on season-long markets are normal and have been stable for weeks. They reflect different customer bases, fees and settlement rails rather than any one person's role at either company. Our sports desk's read earlier in the evening had the widest gap at 2.3 points; the board shifts as NBA MVP prices move.
How Trump Jr. ended up on both sides
Kalshi named Trump Jr. a strategic adviser in January 2025; the Financial Times reported at the time that his stake was worth $300,000, according to Reuters. In August 2025, 1789 Capital invested in Polymarket and Trump Jr. joined Polymarket's advisory board, as The Block reported. For more than a year he was therefore connected to both of the largest US-facing prediction market companies at once. Reuters reports that 1789 increased its Polymarket stake this summer by leading the company's latest round, which is what Kalshi cites as the trigger.
The competitive backdrop
The split comes as the rivalry between the two companies sharpens. Reuters describes Kalshi as a $40 billion startup; our coverage of its Series G at a $40 billion valuation explains how it got there. On Wednesday, Polymarket confirmed layoffs and a reorganization. Kalshi's spokesperson told Reuters that no political considerations were involved. Two unnamed sources told Reuters that some concerns had been raised internally about the ramifications of the Democratic sweep of Congress; Kalshi did not comment on that. We do not take a view on that question, and our explainer on what a Democratic Congress could change lays out the policy issues on both sides.
What to watch next
Watch for any statement from Trump Jr. or 1789 Capital, and for whether Polymarket changes his advisory role in light of Kalshi's decision. On the regulatory side, both companies face state lawsuits and federal scrutiny that are tracked on our state legality tracker. For traders, the practical question is unchanged: the same event can cost a different amount on each venue, and the live comparison page shows where.
Method and limits
Cross-venue prices come from BetG8's live page, which reads the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API every five minutes, stamped 21:03 UTC on November 12, 2026. Facts about the contract come from Reuters via Investing.com, with background from The Block. We could not independently confirm the size of 1789 Capital's Polymarket stake, which neither company has disclosed. These are market prices, not predictions.
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Frequently asked questions
Why did Kalshi end Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory role?
Kalshi told Reuters the decision was mutual and followed his firm 1789 Capital's significant investment in Polymarket, a competitor, this past summer.
How long was Donald Trump Jr. a Kalshi adviser?
Kalshi named him a strategic adviser in January 2025. Talks about ending the contract began in August 2026, according to Reuters.
Is Donald Trump Jr. connected to Polymarket?
Yes. His venture firm 1789 Capital invested in Polymarket in August 2025, when he also joined Polymarket's advisory board, and Reuters reports 1789 led Polymarket's most recent funding round.
Sources
- Reuters via Investing.com, Kalshi ends Donald Trump Jr's advisory contract due to Polymarket conflict
- Bloomberg, Donald Trump Jr. out as Kalshi adviser following midterms
- The Block, Donald Trump Jr. invests in Polymarket and joins advisory board
- BetG8, Kalshi vs Polymarket odds, live, read 21:03 UTC, November 12, 2026
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