MSCI removes Strategy from its indexes at the November 30 close as bitcoin ETFs log a fifth day of outflows and Polymarket holds $70,000 dip odds near 66%
The decision ends a review that began in late 2025 with a proposal to exclude companies whose digital-asset holdings make up half or more of total assets. MSCI adopted broader rules for "non-operating companies" on October 15 and published the affected names on November 11. It came in a week when US spot bitcoin and ether ETFs extended a five-session run of redemptions, so the index news landed on a market already short of buyers.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket bitcoin price-level contracts and spot quotes, read on the morning of November 12:
| Market or quote (UTC read time) | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket: BTC dips to $70,000 by Dec 31 (09:16) | 66.5% | +1 pt (24h) |
| Polymarket: BTC dips to $65,000 by Dec 31 (09:16) | 34.5% | -2 pts (24h) |
| Polymarket: BTC dips to $60,000 by Dec 31 (09:16) | 20.0% | -1.5 pts (24h) |
| Polymarket: BTC dips to $70,000 in November (09:15) | 53.5% | -1 pt (24h) |
| Polymarket: BTC reaches $75,000 in November (09:15) | 76.5% | -6 pts (24h) |
| Polymarket: BTC reaches $80,000 in November (09:15) | 28.5% | -4 pts (24h) |
| BTC/USDT, Binance (09:15) | $73,361.60 | -0.4% (24h) |
| ETH/USDT, Binance (09:15) | $2,042.81 | -0.6% (24h) |
| MSTR, Nasdaq pre-market (09:14) | $116.48 | -4.8% vs $122.35 close |
Polymarket figures are bid-ask midpoints. The year-end $70,000 contract is little changed from 66.5% shortly before the MSCI release, which suggests traders treated the deletion as expected. The November $75,000 contract slipped six points as bitcoin failed to hold above $74,800. For the reasoning behind the $70,000 level, see our report on the $70,000 odds after CPI.
What MSCI decided
MSCI's list shows "STRATEGY A" among 24 deletions and one addition to the MSCI USA Index, effective at the close on November 30, Mugglehead reports. Under the October rules, an issuer without substantial operating assets is tested against five financial ratios and becomes ineligible if flagged on at least four; existing constituents are removed only after failing in both of the two most recent annual filing periods. Before the release, Bitcoin Magazine reported that MSCI's provisional list marked five companies for deletion, including Strategy and Metaplanet, with Strategy making up more than 90% of their combined float-adjusted value. Strategy argued in an August letter that its bitcoin treasury is an operating segment and that it also runs a software business with nearly $500 million of annual revenue.
How large the forced selling could be
Strategy's own consultation response put MSCI-linked fund ownership at about 3.1% of basic shares, roughly 13 million shares, according to Protos. JPMorgan's widely cited estimate of about $2.8 billion in passive outflows was based on MSCI's earlier draft rules and a higher share price. As simple arithmetic, 13 million shares at Wednesday's $122.35 close comes to about $1.6 billion; the real figure depends on how index funds trade into the November 30 close. The company held 850,364 BTC as of November 8, bought for about $64.16 billion. For context on Strategy's recent purchases and miner selling, see our MARA and Strategy report.
ETF outflows add to the pressure
US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $299.87 million on November 11, about three times the $95.0 million exit on November 10 and the fifth straight session of outflows, the longest streak since July, according to Trader T data via Bloomingbit and SoSoValue data via PANews. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $269.7 million and Grayscale's GBTC for $39.13 million, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $8.96 million. The five-day total is about $1.44 billion, and total bitcoin ETF net assets stand near $93.7 billion. Spot ether ETFs lost $144.79 million on the same day, led by $129.8 million from BlackRock's ETHA, with no fund posting inflows; November ether ETF outflows now total about $695.9 million.
What to watch next
Daily ETF flow data for signs the streak breaks, MSTR volume into the November 30 close when index funds are expected to sell, and Strategy's weekly SEC filings for further share sales and bitcoin purchases. On Polymarket, a move in the year-end $70,000 contract above 75% would signal traders expect a test soon. Leverage positioning is on our live crypto funding rates page.
Method and limits
MSCI details come from Reuters (via Global Banking and Finance), Mugglehead's reading of the MSCI list and Bitcoin Magazine; we did not read MSCI's own release. ETF flows are from SoSoValue and Trader T as reported by PANews and Bloomingbit, and can be revised. Spot prices are Binance 24-hour tickers at 09:15 UTC; the MSTR quote is a Twelve Data pre-market reading at 09:14 UTC and may differ from the regular-session open. Polymarket prices come from the public Gamma API at 09:15 to 09:16 UTC. Prices are not forecasts by BetG8 and nothing here is investment advice.
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Frequently asked questions
Is Strategy being removed from MSCI indexes?
Yes. MSCI's November 2026 index review lists Strategy among the deletions from the MSCI USA Index, effective at the close on November 30, 2026, according to Reuters and Mugglehead.
How much MSTR stock could index funds sell?
Strategy put MSCI-linked fund ownership at about 3.1% of basic shares, roughly 13 million shares. JPMorgan estimated about $2.8 billion under earlier draft rules; at the $122.35 close on November 11, 13 million shares are worth about $1.6 billion.
What are the odds bitcoin drops to $70,000 by year-end?
At 09:16 UTC on November 12, 2026, Polymarket priced a dip to $70,000 by December 31 at 66.5%. That is a market price, not a forecast.
Sources
- Reuters via Global Banking & Finance, MSCI to drop Strategy from global indexes
- Mugglehead, Strategy listed among MSCI USA Index deletions
- Bitcoin Magazine, MSCI rules today on Strategy
- Protos, Strategy dips on bad MSCI World Index news
- Bloomingbit, Bitcoin spot ETFs: five days of outflows
- Bloomingbit, Ether spot ETFs post net outflows
- PANews (SoSoValue data), Bitcoin spot ETFs: 5 straight days of outflows
- PANews (SoSoValue data), Bitcoin spot ETFs: 4th consecutive day of outflows
- Polymarket, What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?, read 09:16 UTC, November 12, 2026
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