What did the Arkansas attorney general say about prediction markets?

In an opinion issued 23 October 2025 at the request of State Senator Bryan King, Attorney General Tim Griffin's office concluded that prediction markets meet the Arkansas statutory definition of gambling and are illegal under the state's anti-gambling laws.

Has Arkansas sent a cease-and-desist to Kalshi or Polymarket?

No. As of 1 September 2026 Arkansas has issued no cease-and-desist letter, filed no lawsuit and brought no charge against any prediction market operator, despite the attorney general's opinion.

Does the Ninth Circuit ruling apply in Arkansas?

No. Arkansas is in the Eighth Circuit, so the 28 August 2026 decision is persuasive authority only. The Eighth Circuit is separately reviewing the injunction against Minnesota's prediction market ban, and that ruling would bind Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota.

Is Kalshi legal in Arkansas?

Explainer · Updated September 1, 2026 · 18+ · Not legal advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Prediction Markets

Most of the states on this site are still working out what they think. Arkansas is not. Arkansas wrote its conclusion down, on official letterhead, in October 2025: prediction markets meet the state definition of gambling and are illegal under Arkansas law. Ten months later the state has sent no letter, filed no suit and opened no case. It is the clearest gap in the country between having the answer and using it.

Short answer: Kalshi and Polymarket both work in Arkansas and there is no geofence. The attorney general has formally opined that they are illegal gambling — and an advisory opinion is not an enforcement action. Nothing has been filed. Meanwhile Arkansas licenses and taxes three sportsbooks of its own.

Status at a glance

Question	Answer
Is Kalshi available in Arkansas?	Yes. No geofence.
Is Polymarket available?	Yes.
Attorney general’s position	They are illegal gambling. Formal opinion, 23 October 2025.
Enforcement action taken	None. No cease-and-desist, no suit, no charge.
Legal sportsbook in Arkansas	Yes — three, plus mobile.
Regulator	Arkansas Racing Commission, under the Department of Finance and Administration.
Federal circuit	Eighth Circuit — reviewing the Minnesota injunction. A ruling would bind Arkansas.
Effect of the 28 August ruling	Persuasive only. The Ninth Circuit does not bind the Eighth.

The opinion, and what an opinion is worth

In August 2025 State Senator Bryan King wrote to Attorney General Tim Griffin with a direct question: is Kalshi actually allowed to operate in Arkansas? On 23 October 2025 Griffin’s office answered. Prediction market contracts on sporting events, it concluded, plainly satisfy the definition of gambling in Arkansas law, and Arkansas prohibits gambling that falls outside the narrow authorisations in the state constitution and the casino statutes.

An Arkansas attorney general’s opinion is advisory. It binds nobody, it creates no obligation on the exchanges, and it is not a court ruling. What it does is remove the usual excuse for inaction. In most states the honest reason nothing has happened is that nobody has worked out what the law says. Arkansas has worked it out, in writing, and published it. What remains is a decision about whether to act on it, and that decision has been pending for ten months.

For comparison: by mid-2026 more than ten states had sent cease-and-desist letters to prediction market operators. Several of those states had no attorney general opinion at all when they sent them. Arkansas has the opinion and has sent nothing.

Arkansas is the state with something to lose

The standard theory of why states fight prediction markets is revenue protection. That theory fits Arkansas better than almost anywhere and still does not explain what Arkansas has done.

Arkansas legalised casino gaming and sports betting through Amendment 100, approved by voters in 2018. Three casinos hold licences and run sportsbooks: Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Saracen in Pine Bluff and Southland in West Memphis. Mobile betting launched in March 2022 and, unlike most states, Arkansas requires each app to be tethered to a licensed casino. Gaming receipts are taxed at 13 per cent on the first $150 million and 20 per cent above that, and the Arkansas Racing Commission under the Department of Finance and Administration supervises the whole arrangement.

So Arkansas has licensees who paid for their position, a tax line that depends on their handle, and a regulator with a mandate. It also has an unlicensed, untaxed, federally registered competitor operating openly in the same state, on the same games, and a written legal opinion saying that competitor is breaking the law. Every incentive points one way, and nothing has moved.

The Eighth Circuit is the reason to wait

There is a rational case for Arkansas sitting still, and it has a docket number attached to it. On 28 July 2026 a federal judge in Minnesota enjoined that state’s prediction market ban four days before it was due to take effect, holding that the plaintiffs were likely to succeed on preemption. Minnesota is in the Eighth Circuit, and that injunction is now on appeal.

Arkansas is also in the Eighth Circuit, along with Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and the Dakotas. Whatever the Eighth Circuit says will bind all of them. An Arkansas cease-and-desist sent today would be litigated into a court that is already holding the controlling question, and a state that files early can find itself creating bad facts for a circuit ruling it would rather win. Waiting is a defensible strategy and it may well be the actual one.

What waiting does not do is stop the clock on the market. Arkansas sportsbooks are competing against an untaxed alternative for every week the appeal takes.

What 28 August did and did not change

The Ninth Circuit’s 3-0 ruling on 28 August 2026 held that sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that Nevada may enforce its gaming laws against them. It binds the nine western states and nowhere else, so in Arkansas it is persuasive authority.

But it changes the shape of the Eighth Circuit appeal considerably. Until 28 August the exchanges could point to the Third Circuit as the only appellate word on the subject. Now there are two, they disagree, and New Jersey’s petition to the Supreme Court in the Third Circuit case is due 3 September 2026. An Eighth Circuit panel writing into an acknowledged split behaves differently from one writing on a blank page, and every state in that circuit — Arkansas included — now has a stronger argument on the table than it had a week ago.

What would have to happen next

Path	Who acts	How fast
Cease-and-desist letter	Attorney general’s office	Days. The legal groundwork already exists.
Regulatory action	Arkansas Racing Commission	Weeks. It has licensees with a direct interest.
Civil suit	Attorney general’s office	Months, and probably not before the Eighth Circuit rules.
Legislation	Arkansas General Assembly	Regular session is in odd years; 2027 at the earliest without a special session.
Federal resolution	Eighth Circuit, or the Supreme Court	Eighth Circuit pending; cert petition due 3 September 2026.

What to watch

The single most informative thing that could happen in Arkansas is the smallest: a letter. The opinion has existed since October 2025, so a cease-and-desist requires no new legal work and no appropriation. If one is still unsent after the Eighth Circuit rules, the delay stops looking like strategy. Every dated move in this dispute, in Arkansas and everywhere else, is logged on our prediction market change log, with current status for all fifty states on the Kalshi legality tracker.

FAQ

Is Kalshi legal in Arkansas?: Kalshi operates in Arkansas without a geofence, but the Arkansas attorney general formally opined on 23 October 2025 that prediction market contracts on sporting events are illegal gambling under state law. That opinion is advisory rather than binding, and no Arkansas authority has acted on it, so the question is unresolved rather than settled either way.
What did the Arkansas attorney general say about prediction markets?: In an opinion issued 23 October 2025 at the request of State Senator Bryan King, Attorney General Tim Griffin's office concluded that prediction markets meet the Arkansas statutory definition of gambling and are illegal under the state's anti-gambling laws.
Has Arkansas sent a cease-and-desist to Kalshi or Polymarket?: No. As of 1 September 2026 Arkansas has issued no cease-and-desist letter, filed no lawsuit and brought no charge against any prediction market operator, despite the attorney general's opinion.
Is sports betting legal in Arkansas?: Yes. Amendment 100, approved by voters in 2018, authorised casino gaming and sports betting. Three licensed casinos operate sportsbooks - Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Saracen in Pine Bluff and Southland in West Memphis - and mobile betting launched in March 2022, with each app required to be tied to a licensed casino. The Arkansas Racing Commission regulates them.
Does the Ninth Circuit ruling apply in Arkansas?: No. Arkansas is in the Eighth Circuit, so the 28 August 2026 decision is persuasive authority only. The Eighth Circuit is separately reviewing the injunction against Minnesota's prediction market ban, and that ruling would bind Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota.