Pochettino to Manchester United: a reported verbal agreement, Carrick still officially in charge, and Polymarket near 95% on his exit
The timing follows United's worst start to a season in 40 years. AFP, via The Citizen, reports United are 18th after an eight-match winless league run, their lowest position ten games into a top-flight season since 1986-87, a run that includes the 4-4 draw with Aston Villa covered in our relegation odds report. Chief executive Omar Berrada and director of football Jason Wilcox met co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe in Monaco on Wednesday to review the season, according to Sky, with a final decision on Carrick to follow; Sky says he is expected to be dismissed before the end of the week.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket order books from the public Gamma API at 09:16 UTC on November 12, 2026:
| Market | Bid | Ask | Last trade | 24h change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick out as Man Utd manager by Dec 31, 2026 | 92.9% | 97.3% | 98.6% | +2.4 pts |
| Pochettino next permanent Man Utd manager | 96.4% | 99.7% | 96.5% | +13.6 pts |
| Manchester United relegated in 2026-27 | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | flat |
The Carrick contract has traded about $30,500 and the Pochettino contract only about $1,200, so the second price rests on very little money and should be read as indicative. The relegation contract is deeper, with about $25,500 traded, and has eased from 8.35% when we covered the Villa draw on November 9. On BetG8's live Premier League odds board, United's title price is 0.4% on Polymarket and 1.0% on Kalshi. We did not find a Kalshi market on Carrick's future or the next United manager.
What is confirmed and what is reported
Confirmed: Carrick remains head coach and took Wednesday's session, and Pochettino is still USA coach, due to hold a press conference on Friday before a CONCACAF Nations League quarter-final against Haiti, according to AFP. Reported but not confirmed: the verbal agreement (Sky Sports), the deal being finalised (The Athletic), the Monaco meeting and its outcome (Sky), and the release clause in Pochettino's US contract, which Sky puts at £7m and AFP at about $10 million (£7.5m). Sky says United still need to discuss that buyout with US Soccer, and that talks were expected to accelerate over the following 24 hours. Pochettino signed an extension through the 2030 World Cup about three months ago, AFP reports.
Why the prices are not at 100%
A contract that pays out only if a named manager leaves by a fixed date carries timing and wording risk until the club makes an announcement. The 4.4-point spread on the Carrick book shows that sellers are still asking for a margin against a delay, for example if negotiations with US Soccer drag past the international break. Carrick's exit and Pochettino's arrival are also separate events: United could dismiss Carrick and appoint an interim while compensation talks continue. How Polymarket settles these contracts is explained in how prediction markets resolve.
What to watch next
An official club statement on Carrick, any comment from US Soccer on releasing its coach, and Pochettino's scheduled Friday press conference. United's next league match is at Liverpool on November 22, which sets a practical deadline for a new coach to start work. A confirmed announcement would push the Carrick contract toward resolution; a stall in the compensation talks would show up first in its bid.
Method and limits
Prices are Polymarket order book bids, asks and last trades from the public Gamma API, read once at 09:16 UTC; the headline 95% figure is the bid and ask midpoint. Title prices come from BetG8's live board, which refreshes every five minutes. News details are as reported by Sky Sports, The Athletic via Yahoo Sports and AFP via The Citizen; the club had not confirmed them at publication. Prices are not forecasts and nothing here is betting advice.
LIVE MARKETPro Football 2027 ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- Manchester United relegation odds after 4-4 with Villa
- Premier League odds, live on Kalshi and Polymarket
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- How do prediction markets resolve?
Frequently asked questions
Has Michael Carrick been sacked by Manchester United?
Not officially as of the morning of November 12, 2026. Sky Sports reports he remains in charge and took training on Wednesday, but is expected to be dismissed before the end of the week.
Has Pochettino agreed to join Manchester United?
Sky Sports reports a verbal agreement in principle and The Athletic reports a deal is being finalised, but nothing had been confirmed by the club, Pochettino or US Soccer, and his release from the USA contract still had to be agreed.
What are the odds Carrick leaves by December 31?
At 09:16 UTC on November 12, 2026, Polymarket's Carrick exit contract was bid at 92.9% and offered at 97.3%, a midpoint of about 95%. That is a market price, not a forecast.
Sources
- Sky Sports, Mauricio Pochettino: Man Utd strike agreement with Michael Carrick's potential successor
- The Athletic via Yahoo Sports, Manchester United finalising deal to appoint Pochettino
- AFP via The Citizen, Man United reach verbal agreement with Pochettino to replace Carrick
- Polymarket, Michael Carrick out as Manchester United manager by...?, read 09:16 UTC, November 12, 2026
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