Super Bowl odds, live: every NFL team’s chance to win Super Bowl LXI on Kalshi and Polymarket
Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutesSuper Bowl LXI champion (2026 NFL season)
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 14.1% | 13.5% | +0.6 | +623 | Kalshi |
| Buffalo Bills | 13.5% | 13.0% | +0.5 | +655 | Kalshi |
| Chicago Bears | 12.2% | 12.5% | -0.3 | +710 | – |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.8% | 7.5% | +1.3 | +1123 | Kalshi |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.6% | 7.5% | +1.1 | +1142 | Kalshi |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7.5% | 6.5% | +1.0 | +1329 | Kalshi |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4.8% | 5.5% | -0.8 | +1851 | Polymarket |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4.5% | 5.5% | -1.0 | +1900 | Polymarket |
| Denver Broncos | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0.1 | +2110 | – |
| Detroit Lions | 3.6% | 4.5% | -0.9 | +2354 | Polymarket |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3.1% | 3.5% | -0.4 | +2908 | – |
| New England Patriots | 3.1% | 3.5% | -0.4 | +2908 | – |
| Green Bay Packers | 2.4% | 2.5% | -0.2 | +4024 | – |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.0% | 1.5% | +0.5 | +5614 | – |
| Houston Texans | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0 | +6567 | – |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.3% | 1.5% | -0.2 | +7043 | – |
| New York Giants | 1.3% | 1.5% | -0.2 | +7173 | – |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.9% | 1.0% | -0.1 | +10426 | – |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.2 | +11011 | – |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.3 | +11329 | – |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.7% | 1.0% | -0.3 | +12021 | – |
| Washington Commanders | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13693 | Polymarket |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 | +14715 | Polymarket |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.8 | +15900 | Polymarket |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.8 | +15900 | Polymarket |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| New York Jets | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
How to read the table
Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a team at 14% costs 14 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.
How Super Bowl futures move during the season
Championship prices react to three things: results, quarterback injuries and the playoff picture. A starting quarterback’s injury can take several points off a contender in minutes, and the market often moves before sportsbooks adjust their boards, which is when the two prices diverge most. From December the shape of the playoff bracket starts to matter: a team that locks up a first-round bye gains one fewer game to win. Prediction markets usually carry a much smaller margin than sportsbook futures, so converting the exchange price to American odds is the quickest way to see whether a book is offering value. Use our price comparison tool for the arithmetic, and see which NFL teams have prediction market deals.
Why the same event has two prices
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.
Method and limits
Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favorite to win the Super Bowl?
The first row of the live table is the current favorite across Kalshi and Polymarket. The order changes week to week during the season, so the live figures are the answer.
When is Super Bowl LXI?
Super Bowl LXI, the championship game of the 2026 NFL season, is played in February 2027. Kalshi and Polymarket list it as the 2027 pro football championship.
Why is the Super Bowl market called pro football on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Prediction markets avoid using league trademarks in contract names, so the Super Bowl winner market is listed as the pro football championship. It settles on the same game.
Can I bet on the Super Bowl on Kalshi?
Kalshi offers sports event contracts in most US states, but several states have challenged them in court. Check the 50-state tracker for where you live.
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18+ only. Prediction market contracts and leveraged trading carry real financial risk. This page is market data and analysis, not betting, financial or legal advice. BetG8 earns referral commission from some of the venues linked here. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.