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Fed rate hike odds for December: Kalshi and Polymarket both price 76.5% after a 165,000 jobs month

News analysis · Updated November 7, 2026 · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions · By BetG8 Editorial · Prediction Markets

Fed rate hike odds for December 2026 on Kalshi and Polymarket after the October jobs report
After the October jobs report, both venues put a December hike near three in four.
Short answer: The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October and unemployment was 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 6. Revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September. As of 10:55 UTC on November 7, Kalshi and Polymarket both price a 25 basis point hike at the Fed's December 8-9 meeting at 76.5%. No change is at 21.5% on Polymarket and 24.5% on Kalshi. These are market prices, not predictions.
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What the market is pricing

The table is the December section of the live Fed rate decision odds page, read at 10:55 UTC on November 7, 2026. Each price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if that outcome happens.

December decisionKalshiPolymarket
25 bp increase76.5%76.5%
No change24.5%21.5%
50+ bp increase1.5%0.7%
25 bp decrease2.0%0.7%
50+ bp decrease1.0%0.8%

The two venues agree to the tenth of a point on the hike, which is unusual for a contract this active. They differ on the alternatives: Kalshi gives more weight to no change and to tail outcomes, which is why its column adds up to slightly more than 100%. For January the picture flips: no change is the favourite at 74.5% on Kalshi and 73.5% on Polymarket, with a second hike at 20.5% and 18.5%. Markets are pricing one more move, not a series. A separate contract on cuts in 2026 puts zero cuts at 97.9% on both venues.

What the jobs report said

Payrolls rose 165,000 in October, according to the BLS, and Reuters notes that was more than twice what economists expected. Unemployment was 4.1%, with 7.1 million people out of work. August was revised up by 53,000 to 186,000 and September by 31,000 to 60,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month to $38.00 and 3.1% over the year. Gains were led by professional and business services (70,000), health care (42,000), transportation and warehousing (25,000) and manufacturing (19,000). Labor force participation was 61.9%.

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How the price moved on the day

Reuters reported that markets priced about a 67% chance of a December hike on Thursday, November 5, jumped to about 85% shortly after the release, and settled near 78% later on Friday. Seeking Alpha cited prediction market platforms moving from around 67% to 77%. By Saturday morning both Kalshi and Polymarket sat at 76.5%, so most of the jump survived but the first reaction faded. Reuters also reported that traders now expect the final hike of this cycle in April rather than June.

The reason a strong labor report raises hike odds is inflation. Reuters notes inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who has argued for further hikes, called inflation "a regressive tax, a distortionary tax." Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said last month that policymakers would watch "the accumulation of data." Wage growth of 0.4% in a single month is the number most likely to keep that debate alive.

What to watch next

The October CPI report is the next large input before the December 8-9 meeting. A hot reading would push the hike contract toward 85% or higher; a soft one would bring no change back into play. Watch the gap between venues too: they are level on the hike now, and any split after CPI shows which trader base reacts faster. Fed speeches between now and the pre-meeting blackout can also move the price. The live page refreshes every few minutes.

Method and limits

Prices were read from the BetG8 Fed rate decision odds page at 10:55 UTC on November 7, 2026, which pulls Kalshi and Polymarket quotes. Labor data come from the BLS Employment Situation release of November 6, 2026; intraday probability moves come from Reuters and Seeking Alpha and were not independently verified. Columns can sum to more than 100% because each outcome trades separately. This is a description of market prices, not a forecast or a political view.

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Related

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in December 2026?

As of 10:55 UTC on November 7, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket both priced a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 meeting at 76.5%. No change was at 24.5% on Kalshi and 21.5% on Polymarket.

How many jobs did the US add in October 2026?

165,000, according to the BLS release of November 6, 2026. Unemployment was 4.1%, and revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September combined.

Do markets expect more than one more hike?

Not for now. January is priced mostly at no change, 74.5% on Kalshi and 73.5% on Polymarket, and Reuters reports traders see the final hike of the cycle in April.

Sources

18+ only. This page reports official labor data and live market prices from public sources. It is not betting, financial or investment advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.