Hegseth impeachment vote odds on Polymarket: the House sends Massie's resolution to committee 211-204, and the 2026 contract falls to about 3%
Massie, a Kentucky Republican, used the House rule for privileged resolutions to force the question onto the floor. The first vote was on a motion to refer the resolution to committee rather than on the articles themselves, and Massie had said that only if that motion failed would the House debate and vote on each article. It passed narrowly. The resolution's charges include military action against Iran without congressional authorization and the Pentagon's treatment of Sen. Mark Kelly, according to NTD; they are allegations, not findings. Hegseth has called them sham articles, and House Speaker Mike Johnson criticized the effort. Democratic leaders backed it.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket prices from the public Gamma API at 07:25 UTC on November 11 (midpoint of best bid and ask):
| Polymarket contract | Yes price | 24h change | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026 | 3.1% | -78 pts | $266,077 |
| Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027 | 58.0% | -26 pts | $11,574 |
| Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027 | 62.0% | -26.5 pts | $5,049 |
| Hegseth first to be impeached (end of 2027 list) | 48.5% | -32 pts | $5,071 |
The December contract carries most of the volume, and its 24-hour turnover more than doubled from the roughly $85,000 to $100,000 recorded in BetG8's readings on Tuesday. The two "impeached and removed" markets, which would need a Senate conviction, had bid/ask spreads of several cents to more than 30 cents and almost no trading, so they give no usable price. BetG8 read Polymarket only for this story; yesterday's pre-vote prices are in our earlier Hegseth odds report.
What the contract resolves on
According to its rules, the December market resolves Yes only if the House approves at least one article of impeachment against Hegseth by simple majority before 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2026. A Senate trial or removal is not required, and if Hegseth leaves office permanently before a Yes outcome, the market resolves No. A vote to refer or table a resolution does not settle the market on its own. That is why the price could stay high for a few hours after Tuesday's vote: technically, nothing had resolved. What changed is the path. With the resolution in committee and the 119th Congress ending on January 3, 2027, a passed article before December 31 would need either committee action or a new privileged resolution that clears the floor, and traders now price that at about 3%. For the general mechanics, see how prediction markets resolve.
Why the later contracts stay higher
The March and June 2027 contracts fell sharply too, but both remain well above the December price. The difference is time and a new Congress. A new House convenes in January 2027, and articles can be filed again then; the later contracts include that window, while the December contract does not. Their volume is small, a few thousand to about $11,500 a day, and spreads are wider, so they are less reliable signals than the December price. A thin market can sit at a level that a few trades would move a long way. The prices describe what traders are willing to pay, not a view on whether impeachment would be justified.
Why the price could still move
Two things could lift the December contract: a new privileged resolution forced to a vote in the lame-duck session, or Judiciary Committee action. Nothing reported so far points to either. Two things would push it toward zero: the House adjourning for the year, or Hegseth leaving office. On the 2027 contracts, watch statements from members of the incoming House on whether they plan to revisit the articles, which would be the main information those markets react to.
What to watch next
Any statement from Massie on a second attempt, the House floor schedule for the rest of the year, and whether the March 2027 contract holds above 50% as its volume builds. Our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison tracks political markets listed on both venues.
Method and limits
Prices are midpoints of best bid and ask from the public Polymarket Gamma API, read at 07:25 UTC on November 11, 2026; 24-hour changes and volumes are as reported by the API. The late-Tuesday figure of about 81% is a BetG8 desk reading at 23:47 UTC on November 10. Vote details are from ABC News and NTD. BetG8 takes no position on the impeachment effort, and prices are not forecasts.
LIVE MARKETPro Football 2027 ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- Hegseth impeachment odds before the vote
- How prediction markets resolve
- Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
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- Implied probability explained
Frequently asked questions
Did the House impeach Pete Hegseth?
No. On November 10, 2026, the House voted 211-204 to refer Rep. Thomas Massie's impeachment resolution to the Judiciary Committee, which ABC News says effectively ends it for the current Congress.
What are the Hegseth impeachment odds on Polymarket?
At 07:25 UTC on November 11, 2026, Polymarket priced a Hegseth impeachment by December 31, 2026 at 3.1%, by March 31, 2027 at 58% and by June 30, 2027 at 62%. These are market prices, not predictions.
Why did the market not resolve after the vote?
The contract resolves Yes only if the House passes an article of impeachment by the deadline. A referral to committee does not resolve it either way, so the market stays open until December 31 unless Hegseth leaves office.
Sources
- CBS News, Rep. Thomas Massie's Hegseth impeachment articles and House vote
- ABC News, House refers Hegseth impeachment resolution to committee
- NTD, House rejects Rep. Massie's impeachment effort targeting Hegseth
- Polymarket, Pete Hegseth impeached by...?, read 07:25 UTC, November 11, 2026
- Polymarket Gamma API, Search: Hegseth impeached, read 07:25 UTC, November 11, 2026
18+ only. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice, and prices are not predictions. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.