Kalshi's midterm election trading was about 3 percent of its volume. Sports parlays did roughly 23 times as much

News · Published November 5, 2026 · 18+ · Not legal advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Prediction Markets

The 10-day split

The figures below are Legal Sports Report's tally for the 10-day period ending November 3. The article words the window two ways, “the 10 days surrounding the midterms” and “ending Nov. 3”, so treat the exact start date as approximate.

These are notional figures, which count every contract at its $1 face value, so they show how many contracts changed hands, not how much money was staked. We measured that gap for one Sunday in October in our $22.2 billion week analysis, where Kalshi's notional volume ran at about 5.7 times the dollars actually paid.

Election Day was the exception

Election trading was 17.5 percent of Kalshi's daily volume on Election Day, according to Legal Sports Report, and it passed non-parlay sports for the first time. Parlays still drew more than three times as much as elections that day. Nearly 80 percent of the 10-day election total arrived between November 1 and Election Day, so the interest was heavily back-loaded.

Two other reports let you check that share. Covers, relaying Kalshi data, put election notional volume at $716 million on Tuesday. Bitcoin.com reported Kalshi's total Election Day volume at $4.15 billion, its busiest weekday yet. $716 million over $4.15 billion is about 17 percent, close to the 17.5 percent Legal Sports Report gives. That division is our arithmetic across two outlets, not a published figure.

Which figure is which

Several different Kalshi numbers are circulating, and they measure different things.

The $2.5 billion covers markets that have been open for months; the House control market, for example, has run since shortly after the 2024 election, and Covers does not give the start date of its count. The $1.1 billion is a 10-day window. The October figure shows the other side of the picture: elections were 0.5 percent of a record $98.2 billion month.

The biggest election markets

Figures are from Covers. Its list of seven markets, which also includes a $20.8 million Senate seat-count market left out of the table, adds up to about $830 million of the $2.5 billion, and the article does not say where the rest came from. Bitcoin.com's Election Day list shows slightly different one-day numbers, with Texas Senate at $108.1 million, House control at $99.8 million and Texas governor at $88.6 million, which is normal when outlets cut the day at different times. Legal Sports Report named Texas Senate the largest single election market inside its window, at $145 million.

What it means

Headlines about prediction markets and elections can mislead on scale. Election contracts drew the attention, and November 3 was a record-setting day for the category, but they remain a small share of Kalshi's business, which is overwhelmingly sports and, within sports, parlays. The state lawsuits and enforcement actions we track are mostly about sports contracts rather than election markets. Kalshi's own recap claims its favorites won 479 of 487 resolved races, or 98 percent. That is a self-reported, promotional figure from a company that profits from the platform's reputation, and we have not verified it.

What to watch

November's totals will show whether the election spike fades. Sports volume set records in October, so we will compare November with October's $98.2 billion when the figures are published. If election trading falls back towards 0.5 percent of volume, the midterm week will look like a one-off rather than a new base.

Method and limits

Every figure here is as reported by the outlets cited, and most trace back to Kalshi's own data. Kalshi operates the markets it reports on, so its numbers are self-reported and not independently audited. Volumes are notional unless stated. The outlets use different cut-off times and windows, so the totals do not reconcile exactly. The 17 percent cross-check and the 23-to-1 ratio ($25.3 billion over $1.1 billion) are our arithmetic.

Related

• Election Day 2026: final prices and more than $1.4 billion traded
• Midterm 2026 scorecard: 8 of 9 called Senate races
• The $22.2 billion week and what notional volume counts
• How parlays work and why they lose
• What a Democratic Congress can do to Kalshi and Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

How much of Kalshi's volume was elections during the midterms?

Legal Sports Report counted more than $1.1 billion of election trading in the 10 days around the midterms, about 3 percent of Kalshi's platform volume, and 0.5 percent of its record $98.2 billion October volume.

How big were parlays by comparison?

Parlays traded $25.3 billion in the same 10 days, nearly $23 for every dollar traded on elections, with another $6.1 billion in other sports contracts.

Did election trading ever overtake sports on Kalshi?

On Election Day, November 3, elections were 17.5 percent of daily volume and passed non-parlay sports for the first time, but parlays still drew more than three times as much as elections.

How much did Kalshi trade on the midterms in total?

Kalshi reports more than $2.5 billion in notional volume on 2026 midterm markets, against $1.3 billion in the 2024 cycle. The figure is self-reported and the start date of the count is not stated.

Sources

• Legal Sports Report, Kalshi sports parlays dwarf election trading during midterms, November 4, 2026
• Covers, Kalshi midterm elections produce $2.5 billion in trades, November 4, 2026
• Bitcoin.com, Kalshi Election Day volume hits $4.15B, short of October record
• Kalshi News, 2026 midterms recap, November 4, 2026
• BetG8, Prediction markets just had a $22.2 billion week

18+ only. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk. This page is analysis, not legal, financial or betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.