Election Day 2026: Kalshi and Polymarket go into the vote at 74 to 78 percent for a Democratic Senate, 94 percent for the House, and more than $1.4 billion traded

Analysis · Updated November 3, 2026 · 18+ · Not legal advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Prediction Markets

Election Day 2026 prediction markets: Kalshi and Polymarket final prices — The two exchanges agreed on the chambers and differed by a few points on the rest.

Short version: Polls open on November 3, 2026 with the two largest US prediction markets agreeing on the shape of the result and disagreeing on the details. Kalshi priced a Democratic Senate at 74 percent and a Democratic House at 94 percent at noon on November 2; Polymarket’s House contract traded at 94.5 cents and its Senate contract at 77.5 cents early on Election Day. Kalshi says more than $1.2 billion has been traded on its midterm markets, and CNN put the cross-platform total above $1.4 billion ten days ago. The biggest moves of the last month were in Kansas, Maine and Michigan. Nothing here is a forecast of who wins; it is a record of what the markets said before the first vote was counted.

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What the exchanges priced going in

The headline contracts are the ones on control of each chamber. Kalshi’s own final midterm odds note, with prices taken at noon ET on November 2, had Democrats at 74 percent to control the Senate and 94 percent to control the House. On Polymarket’s international exchange, read from its public API at about 2 a.m. ET on November 3, the “Democratic Party controls the House” contract was 94.5 cents and the Senate contract 77.5 cents, with the combined “D Senate, D House” outcome at 76.5 cents. Live prices for the national markets are on our 2026 midterm election odds page; the two Polymarket contracts are listed here for the House and here for the Senate.

Contract	Kalshi (Nov 2, noon ET)	Polymarket (Nov 3, ~2 a.m. ET)
Democrats control the Senate	74%	77.5¢
Democrats control the House	94%	94.5¢
Democratic sweep of both chambers	68% (Oct 30, Daily Beast)	76.5¢
Republicans keep Senate, lose House	27% (Oct 30)	19.5¢
Republicans keep both	6%	5.5¢

The arithmetic behind the Senate number is simple. Republicans hold 53 seats; 35 are up; Democrats need a net gain of four, because a 50-50 chamber is organised by the Republican vice president’s tie-breaking vote. Kalshi’s race-level prices on November 2 had Democrats favoured in Ohio (Sherrod Brown 71 percent), Maine (Troy Jackson 73 percent), Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed about 78 percent), Kansas (Adam Hamilton 63 percent) and Iowa (Josh Turek 52 percent), with Republican Darline Graham at 67 percent in South Carolina. In the House, all 435 seats are up and a majority is 218; Republicans won 220-215 in 2024, so Democrats need a net gain of three.

How the prices moved in October

The month-long trend was one way. Kalshi’s Senate contract for Democrats stood at about 63 percent on October 2 and 74 percent on November 2, an 11-point move; the House contract moved only two points, from nearly 92 to 94 percent, because it was already priced as close to settled. The Daily Beast noted on October 30 that Kalshi’s Democratic-sweep contract had traded at 30 percent at the start of the year and 68 percent by late October.

Race (Kalshi)	Late October	Nov 2, noon ET	Move
Kansas Senate, Adam Hamilton (D)	39% (Oct 26)	63%	+24 pts
Maine Senate, Troy Jackson (D)	60% (Oct 26)	73%	+13 pts
Michigan Senate, Abdul El-Sayed (D)	~64% (Oct 26)	~78%	+14 pts
Senate control, Democrats	63% (Oct 2)	74%	+11 pts
House control, Democrats	92% (Oct 2)	94%	+2 pts

Kansas is the case worth remembering whichever way it resolves. No Democrat has won a Senate race there since 1932. Hamilton passed incumbent Roger Marshall on Kalshi in the last week of October, the day after a CNN/SSRS poll put him four points ahead, and the contract then ran another ten points. A market that moves 24 points in a week on a race with thin polling is reacting to information, but it is also a market in which a handful of large orders can set the price, a point the data below makes concrete.

How much money is behind the numbers

Three figures describe the scale. CNN reported on October 23 that trading on 2026 midterm markets across the exchanges had passed $1.4 billion. Kalshi told Fox News, in data published November 1, that more than $1.2 billion had been traded on its midterm markets alone, which the company says exceeds its volume in the 2024 presidential year. And on Polymarket’s international exchange, the three national contracts had cumulative volume of about $42.7 million (House), $18.2 million (Senate) and $60.6 million (balance of power) by early November 3, up from $31.2 million and $11.9 million for the first two when we last read the API on October 30. In the 24 hours to 2 a.m. ET, those three markets traded $5.2 million, $2.4 million and $8.6 million respectively.

Scale is not the same as breadth. The American Civics Data Collective, in an analysis published August 17 of 7,466 House and Senate markets on Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, found that the top 1 percent of Polymarket wallets accounted for 68 percent of volume on 2026 congressional markets, that ten wallets held 17 percent of total volume across 426 of 470 seats, and that 80 percent of Polymarket congressional markets had fewer than 100 participating wallets. Those are August numbers and volume has grown roughly tenfold since; the concentration may have eased, but no newer public study measures it. The same Fox report shows a different kind of split: in Maine, 61 percent of out-of-state money on Kalshi backed Troy Jackson against 36 percent of in-state money, and in Michigan the gap was 65 to 49 in El-Sayed’s favour.

Where the two exchanges disagree

On candidates, barely. A side-by-side published November 2 by Sports Betting Dime found the two platforms within one to three points on every race it checked: Florida governor (Byron Donalds 66 percent on Kalshi, 65 on Polymarket), Georgia governor (Keisha Lance Bottoms 68 against 71), Nevada governor (Aaron Ford 73 against 76), Iowa Senate (Josh Turek 51 against 52) and South Carolina Senate (Darline Graham 67 against 69). The largest gaps were on ballot measures, not people: California’s Proposition 40 wealth tax was 25 percent “yes” on Kalshi and 30 on Polymarket, and Florida’s Amendment 3 on property tax was 27 against 33.

Two things explain most of the residual gap. Polymarket’s displayed prices for the two sides of a race often sum to more than 100 (Michigan’s 4th district totalled 103), because the figure shown is the last trade or midpoint rather than a vig-free probability, so a one or two point difference between venues is within the spread. And ballot measures attract far less volume than Senate races, so the price on a thin book moves further on a single order. Readers who want to turn any of these prices into a comparable implied probability can use our implied probability converter.

How the contracts settle, and the letter due today

Settlement matters more than usual this year because several chamber-control markets can resolve before every seat is certified. Kalshi’s Senate rules settle early once at least four of eight designated media organisations call the same outcome without conflict; failing that, control is determined by the party of the president pro tempore on February 1, 2027. The House contract uses the party of the Speaker on the same date as its fallback. Polymarket’s rules resolve on which party holds a majority of seats after the election, with its own resolution sources. Traders holding positions should read the specific rule text rather than the headline question, because a market that stays open through a disputed count behaves differently from one that closes on a network call.

November 3 is also the deadline Senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis set for Kalshi and Polymarket to explain how they prevent insider trading on midterm contracts, a request we covered in our analysis of the letter. Neither company had published a reply at the time of writing, and the letter has no legal force. What it signals is that the first question after the results will not be whether the markets were right, but who was trading in them.

Method and limits

Kalshi prices are from Kalshi’s own November 2 note, taken at noon ET, and from the Daily Beast’s October 30 report; Polymarket prices and volumes are from the public Gamma API read at about 07:10 UTC on November 3, 2026 and refer to the international exchange, not Polymarket US. Prices on Election Day move by the minute, and the figures here will be stale by the time polls close. Volume totals are as reported by the companies and by CNN and are not audited; Kalshi’s $1.2 billion is its own figure for its own markets, and the $1.4 billion cross-platform total is a CNN analysis from October 23. The ACDC concentration numbers are from August 2026 and have not been updated. This article does not predict any result and is not advice to trade.

Frequently asked questions

What did Kalshi and Polymarket price for the 2026 midterms on Election Day?

Kalshi priced a Democratic Senate at 74 percent and a Democratic House at 94 percent at noon ET on November 2, 2026. Polymarket’s House contract traded at 94.5 cents and its Senate contract at 77.5 cents early on November 3.

How much has been traded on 2026 midterm prediction markets?

CNN reported more than $1.4 billion across platforms on October 23, 2026. Kalshi said on November 1 that more than $1.2 billion had been traded on its midterm markets, a record for the company in a midterm year.

Which races moved the most before Election Day?

On Kalshi, Democrat Adam Hamilton rose from 39 percent on October 26 to 63 percent on November 2 in the Kansas Senate race; Troy Jackson in Maine gained 13 points and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan about 14 points over similar periods.

When do chamber-control contracts settle?

Kalshi’s Senate contract can settle early when at least four of eight designated media outlets call the same result; otherwise it resolves on the party of the president pro tempore on February 1, 2027. The House contract falls back to the party of the Speaker on the same date.

Is trading on election outcomes legal in the US?

Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges and their election contracts trade under federal oversight. State challenges so far have focused on sports contracts. This is general information, not legal advice.