49ers Keenan Allen trade Super Bowl odds: San Francisco stays the Kalshi favorite, Minnesota gains on the Cousins reunion and Kansas City ticks up after adding Josh Downs
Allen, 34, had 40 catches for 351 yards and one touchdown in eight games for the Colts, according to TSN. theScore reports he arrives in a receiver room missing Mike Evans (Achilles tendonitis, out the last two games), with Deebo Samuel dealing with a hamstring injury and rookie De'Zhaun Stribling recovering from ankle surgery. Cousins, 38, had thrown for 2,340 yards, 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions as the Raiders' starter, per NFL.com, and rejoins coach Kevin O'Connell. Downs had 33 catches for 354 yards and one touchdown this season after requesting a trade, according to ESPN.
What the market is pricing
Super Bowl LXI prices on both venues, read from BetG8's live board at 07:23 UTC on November 11, against the readings logged when each deal was reported on Tuesday:
| Team | At the news (UTC, Nov 10) | Polymarket now | Kalshi now |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 14.1% / 15.0% (19:44) | 14.1% | 15.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | 14.5% / 13.5% (19:44) | 14.5% | 13.5% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.3% / 7.5% (23:49) | 9.6% | 7.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4.2% / 3.5% (20:44) | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Green Bay Packers | 3.6% / 3.5% (20:44) | 3.5% | 3.5% |
Earlier readings are shown as Polymarket / Kalshi. Jacksonville (12.3% / 10.5%) and Chicago (10.9% / 11.5%) sit between the top two and Kansas City; see our Jaguars deadline report and the Bears Week 9 movers. The full board updates on the live Super Bowl odds page.
49ers: depth, not a repricing
The Allen trade has not changed San Francisco's price on Polymarket, and Kalshi moved only half a point. That fits the size of the deal: a sixth-round pick for a depth receiver on a 7-1 team. The two venues still disagree on the 49ers by 1.4 points, with Kalshi the higher of the two. Brock Purdy is third in the NFL MVP market at 16.4% on Polymarket and 16.5% on Kalshi. San Francisco visits Dallas (4-5) on Sunday, per TSN.
Vikings and Chiefs: the bigger moves
Minnesota's price rose a full point on each venue overnight. NFL.com notes the Vikings have the league's top scoring defense but an offense ranked 27th in points, scoring 16 or fewer in five of eight games, which came a day after a 23-6 loss to Buffalo covered in our Monday night report. If Cousins is ready, his first game back would be at Green Bay in Week 10. A 5% price still implies roughly a 1-in-20 chance.
Kansas City was flat on Kalshi at 7.5% but rose 1.3 points on Polymarket, opening a 2.1-point gap between venues. ESPN notes Patrick Mahomes has no completion over 20 air yards since Week 4, which is part of why receiver help was the priority; our Mahomes report covers the earlier price swing.
MVP side note: the Jordan Love split
The widest disagreement on the NFL board is not a team at all. Jordan Love is 13.5% to win MVP on Kalshi and 10.1% on Polymarket, a 3.5-point gap, after throwing for 372 yards and accounting for four touchdowns in a 45-27 win at New England. Joe Burrow leads at 33.0% and 32.5%. Background is in our Love MVP article.
What to watch next
Whether Cousins starts at Lambeau, how quickly Allen and Downs are worked into their offenses, and the 49ers at Dallas. On the markets, watch the Chiefs' 2.1-point venue gap and the Love MVP split; gaps that size often narrow within a few days.
Method and limits
Current prices come from BetG8's live boards, which read Polymarket and Kalshi every five minutes, so a reading can lag by up to that interval. Earlier readings were logged by BetG8's newsroom on November 10. Trade terms and stats are as reported by TSN, theScore, NFL.com, ESPN and ProFootballTalk. Prices are not forecasts, and nothing here is betting advice.
LIVE MARKETPro Football 2027 ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- Super Bowl odds, live on Kalshi and Polymarket
- NFL MVP odds, live
- Jaguars Super Bowl odds after the Bates and Davis trades
- Jordan Love MVP odds after Packers 45, Patriots 27
- Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
Frequently asked questions
What did the 49ers give up for Keenan Allen?
San Francisco sent a 2027 sixth-round pick to Indianapolis for Allen, according to TSN and theScore.
What are the 49ers' Super Bowl odds after the trade?
At 07:23 UTC on November 11, 2026, Kalshi priced the 49ers at 15.5%, its favorite, and Polymarket at 14.1%, just behind Buffalo at 14.5%. These are market prices, not predictions.
Did the Kirk Cousins trade move the Vikings' odds?
Yes. Minnesota rose from 4.2% to 5.2% on Polymarket and from 3.5% to 4.5% on Kalshi between 20:44 UTC on November 10 and 07:23 UTC on November 11.
Sources
- TSN, Report: Niners add veteran receiver Allen
- theScore, Report: 49ers land Allen in trade with Colts
- NFL.com, Vikings acquire Kirk Cousins from Raiders
- NFL.com, Chiefs acquire Josh Downs from Colts
- ESPN, Chiefs trade for Colts WR Josh Downs
- NBC Sports ProFootballTalk, Jordan Love's MVP case surges
18+ only. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice, and prices are not predictions. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.