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Kalshi vs Polymarket odds, live: every shared market side by side, and where the prices disagree

Live data · Prices refresh every 5 minutes · 18+ · Not financial advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Live odds

Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes
Shared outcomes priced99
Average gap1.2 pts
Gaps of 3+ points7

Biggest Kalshi vs Polymarket gaps right now

Outcomes priced at 3% or more on at least one venue, sorted by the size of the disagreement.

MarketOutcomePolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiCheaper YES
2028 presidential election winnerJD Vance2028 presidential election winner19.1%12.5%+6.6Kalshi
2028 Republican presidential nomineeRon DeSantis2028 Republican presidential nominee13.0%18.5%-5.5Polymarket
Oscars 2027: Best PictureYou Can See EverythingOscars 2027: Best Picture19.3%14.5%+4.8Kalshi
2026 NFL MVPJosh Allen2026 NFL MVP31.5%27.5%+4.0Kalshi
2026-27 NBA MVPJayson Tatum2026-27 NBA MVP3.8%7.5%-3.8Polymarket
2028 Democratic presidential nomineeAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez2028 Democratic presidential nominee17.0%13.5%+3.5Kalshi
2028 Republican presidential nomineeJ.D. Vance2028 Republican presidential nominee37.6%34.5%+3.2Kalshi
Oscars 2027: Best PictureDune: Part ThreeOscars 2027: Best Picture5.5%8.5%-3.0Polymarket
2027 Champions League winnerBarcelona2027 Champions League winner23.5%20.5%+3.0Kalshi
2026-27 NBA MVPLuka Doncic2026-27 NBA MVP34.9%32.0%+2.9Kalshi
2026 NFL MVPJoe Burrow2026 NFL MVP16.9%19.5%-2.6Polymarket
2026 NFL MVPJordan Love2026 NFL MVP3.0%5.5%-2.5Polymarket

Fed decision at the December 9, 2026 meeting

Polymarket volume $15.1M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

DecisionPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiCheaper YES
50+ bps decrease0.7%1.0%-0.3–
25 bps decrease1.0%1.5%-0.5–
No change31.5%33.5%-2.0Polymarket
25 bps increase66.5%64.5%+2.0Kalshi
50+ bps increase0.7%1.0%-0.3–

2028 presidential election winner

Polymarket volume $733.6M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

CandidatePolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
Jon Ossoff20.6%22.5%-1.9+363Polymarket
JD Vance19.1%12.5%+6.6+534Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12.2%10.0%+2.2+805Kalshi
Marco Rubio9.2%10.5%-1.4+918Polymarket
Gavin Newsom7.2%8.5%-1.2+1174Polymarket
Ron DeSantis5.8%6.2%-0.4+1574–
Kamala Harris3.6%3.3%+0.3+2820–
Josh Shapiro2.6%2.6%0.0+3674–

2028 Republican presidential nominee

Polymarket volume $728.7M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

CandidatePolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
J.D. Vance37.6%34.5%+3.2+177Kalshi
Marco Rubio19.6%19.5%+0.1+412–
Ron DeSantis13.0%18.5%-5.5+536Polymarket
Tucker Carlson3.5%4.0%-0.5+2585Polymarket
Glenn Youngkin3.9%2.9%+1.0+2863Kalshi
Thomas Massie2.3%2.9%-0.7+3746Polymarket
Ted Cruz2.6%2.5%+0.1+3900–
Brian Kemp1.4%2.4%-1.0+5305Polymarket

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Polymarket volume $1.31B · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

CandidatePolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
Jon Ossoff26.5%25.5%+1.0+285Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17.0%13.5%+3.5+556Kalshi
Gavin Newsom12.6%12.5%+0.1+697–
Kamala Harris4.3%5.1%-0.8+2016Polymarket
Pete Buttigieg4.3%5.1%-0.7+2028Polymarket
Josh Shapiro4.5%4.5%0.0+2147–
Andy Beshear3.8%4.5%-0.8+2295Polymarket
James Talarico2.8%3.6%-0.8+3075Polymarket

2027 NBA champion

Polymarket volume $36.1M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

TeamPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
San Antonio Spurs22.5%22.5%0.0+344–
Oklahoma City Thunder13.5%15.5%-2.0+590Polymarket
Philadelphia 76ers13.1%14.5%-1.5+626Polymarket
Houston Rockets8.1%6.5%+1.6+1270Kalshi
Boston Celtics6.5%6.5%0.0+1438–
New York Knicks6.5%6.5%0.0+1438–
Minnesota Timberwolves5.5%4.5%+1.0+1910Kalshi
Detroit Pistons4.5%3.5%+1.0+2384Kalshi

Super Bowl LXI champion (2026 NFL season)

Polymarket volume $71.7M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

TeamPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
San Francisco 49ers14.1%13.5%+0.6+623Kalshi
Buffalo Bills13.5%13.0%+0.5+655Kalshi
Chicago Bears12.2%12.5%-0.3+710–
Kansas City Chiefs8.8%7.5%+1.3+1123Kalshi
Jacksonville Jaguars8.6%7.5%+1.1+1142Kalshi
Los Angeles Rams7.5%6.5%+1.0+1329Kalshi
Cincinnati Bengals4.8%5.5%-0.8+1851Polymarket
Seattle Seahawks4.5%5.5%-1.0+1900Polymarket

2027 Stanley Cup champion

Polymarket volume $1.7M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

TeamPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
Carolina Hurricanes11.5%10.5%+1.0+809Kalshi
Edmonton Oilers11.5%9.5%+2.0+852Kalshi
Colorado Avalanche9.5%10.5%-1.0+900Polymarket
Minnesota Wild7.6%9.5%-1.9+1066Polymarket
Florida Panthers7.0%7.5%-0.5+1279Polymarket
New Jersey Devils6.9%7.5%-0.6+1289Polymarket
Vegas Golden Knights7.5%6.5%+1.0+1329Kalshi
Dallas Stars5.5%5.5%0.0+1718–

2027 Champions League winner

Polymarket volume $68.9M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

ClubPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
Barcelona23.5%20.5%+3.0+355Kalshi
Paris Saint-Germain18.5%19.5%-1.0+426Polymarket
Arsenal14.5%13.5%+1.0+614Kalshi
Real Madrid14.5%13.5%+1.0+614Kalshi
Bayern Munich12.5%13.5%-1.0+669Polymarket
Manchester City5.5%7.5%-2.0+1438Polymarket
Liverpool3.6%3.5%+0.1+2737–
Como2.4%2.0%+0.3+4498–

2026-27 Premier League champion

Polymarket volume $25.4M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

ClubPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
Arsenal69.5%69.5%0.0-228–
Manchester City10.5%11.5%-1.0+809Polymarket
Brighton6.9%7.5%-0.7+1294Polymarket
Liverpool5.8%5.5%+0.3+1670–
Chelsea3.6%3.5%+0.1+2697–
Tottenham1.0%1.0%+0.0+9656–
Manchester United0.5%1.0%-0.5+12803–
Aston Villa0.5%1.0%-0.5+13693Polymarket

2026 college football national champion

Polymarket volume $1.3M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

TeamPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
Georgia Bulldogs24.8%22.5%+2.2+323Kalshi
Notre Dame Fighting Irish14.5%15.0%-0.5+578Polymarket
Miami Hurricanes11.2%9.5%+1.7+869Kalshi
LSU Tigers10.3%9.5%+0.7+913Kalshi
Indiana Hoosiers7.8%8.5%-0.6+1123Polymarket
Texas Longhorns6.8%6.5%+0.3+1404–
Ohio State Buckeyes6.5%4.5%+2.0+1718Kalshi
Alabama Crimson Tide4.8%5.5%-0.8+1851Polymarket

Oscars 2027: Best Picture

Polymarket volume $775K · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

FilmPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
The Odyssey57.5%58.5%-1.0-138Polymarket
You Can See Everything19.3%14.5%+4.8+492Kalshi
La Bola Negra12.5%13.5%-1.0+669Polymarket
Dune: Part Three5.5%8.5%-3.0+1329Polymarket
Digger3.0%1.0%+2.0+4838Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine0.3%1.5%-1.3+11329Polymarket
Artificial0.3%1.5%-1.3+11329Polymarket
The Invite0.5%1.0%-0.5+13693Polymarket

2026 NFL MVP

Polymarket volume $1.4M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

PlayerPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
Josh Allen31.5%27.5%+4.0+239Kalshi
Joe Burrow16.9%19.5%-2.6+449Polymarket
Brock Purdy16.3%16.5%-0.3+511–
Caleb Williams10.3%10.5%-0.3+864–
Trevor Lawrence7.1%9.5%-2.4+1108Polymarket
Drake Maye3.6%5.5%-1.9+2110Polymarket
Jordan Love3.0%5.5%-2.5+2239Polymarket
Patrick Mahomes2.3%3.5%-1.2+3348Polymarket

2026-27 NBA MVP

Polymarket volume $311K · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

PlayerPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiOddsCheaper YES
Victor Wembanyama35.0%35.5%-0.5+184Polymarket
Luka Doncic34.9%32.0%+2.9+199Kalshi
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander10.5%12.5%-2.0+770Polymarket
Nikola Jokic7.5%5.5%+2.0+1438Kalshi
Jayson Tatum3.8%7.5%-3.8+1678Polymarket
Tyrese Maxey5.0%4.5%+0.5+2016–
Cade Cunningham2.1%1.5%+0.6+5534Kalshi
Giannis Antetokounmpo1.8%1.5%+0.3+5961–

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026

Polymarket volume $55.6M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Cuts in 2026PolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiCheaper YES
0 (0 bps)97.2%96.4%+0.9Kalshi
1 (25 bps)1.0%3.0%-1.9Polymarket

How high will Bitcoin go in 2026

Polymarket volume $82.4M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Bitcoin hitsPolymarketKalshiPM − KalshiCheaper YES
$90,000 or higher23.5%–––
$95,000 or higher11.5%–––
$100,000 or higher8.5%10.5%-2.0Polymarket
$110,000 or higher3.9%4.5%-0.6Polymarket
$120,000 or higher3.5%3.5%-0.1–
$130,000 or higher2.1%2.5%-0.5–
$140,000 or higher1.7%2.0%-0.3–
$150,000 or higher1.6%1.5%+0.1–
What this page does: it pulls live prices for the same events from Kalshi and Polymarket, lines them up outcome by outcome and ranks the places where the two venues disagree most. It covers the next Fed decision, the 2028 presidential race and both nominations, the NBA, NFL and NHL championships, the Champions League, the Premier League, college football, the Oscars Best Picture race, Fed rate cuts this year and how high Bitcoin goes in 2026. Each market also has its own page with the full list of outcomes, linked below.
LIVE MARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028Trade on Polymarket →

How to read the table

Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a contract at 23% costs 23 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.

📊 Compare the same market on both venues and trade the cheaper side on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Why the same event has two prices

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.

Which markets are on this page

We list a market here when both venues trade it with enough volume to quote a two-sided price: the Fed decision at the next FOMC meeting, the 2028 presidential election and both party nominations, the NBA championship, the Super Bowl, the Stanley Cup, the college football national title, the Champions League, the Premier League (with La Liga on its own page), Oscars Best Picture, the number of Fed rate cuts this year and the highest price Bitcoin reaches in 2026. The 2026 midterm results are on the midterm odds page. New markets are added as they reach both venues.

Method and limits

Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.

Frequently asked questions

Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper?

It depends on the market and the minute. The table on this page shows, for every outcome both venues trade, which one charges less for a YES contract right now. Across the markets we track the typical gap is one to two percentage points, and fees on both venues have to be added before comparing.

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds for the same event?

They are separate exchanges with separate traders, fees, deposit methods and limits, and moving money between them is slow. Prices drift apart until arbitrage traders close the gap, which happens fastest on markets that settle soon.

Can I profit from the gap between Kalshi and Polymarket?

Sometimes, but rarely by as much as the headline gap. You pay fees on both sides, cross the bid-ask spread twice and tie up money until settlement, and the two contracts can resolve on slightly different wording. Most gaps under three points disappear once those costs are counted.

How often are the odds updated?

The page is rebuilt from live API data every five minutes. The timestamp at the top shows when the prices were last pulled.

LIVE MARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028Trade on Polymarket →

Related

18+ only. Prediction market contracts and leveraged trading carry real financial risk. This page is market data and analysis, not betting, financial or legal advice. BetG8 earns referral commission from some of the venues linked here. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.