Netanyahu out odds: Polymarket prices 46% for an exit by year end after Herzog hands Eisenkot the mandate
Herzog informed Eisenkot on Saturday evening, November 7, and the formal handover of the mandate was scheduled for 5 p.m. Israel time on Sunday. Eisenkot, the Yashar party leader and a former army chief, has 28 days to build a coalition, with a possible extension of up to 14 days, according to the Times of Israel and Al Jazeera. United Torah Judaism, with seven seats, recommended no one. The October 27 election left no side with a majority: Al Jazeera puts Eisenkot's four-party alliance at 48 seats and Netanyahu's bloc at 53, with Arab-led parties at a record 19.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket's "Netanyahu out by...?" event has traded about $125.3 million in total. The near-dated contracts have moved sharply over the past week as the recommendation count became clear, while the earlier 2026 dates have expired at zero.
| Netanyahu out by, Nov 8, 15:22 UTC | Polymarket Yes | 24h change | 7-day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 46.0% | +3.5 pts | +29.5 pts |
| March 31, 2027 | 66.5% | +8.5 pts | +39.5 pts |
| June 30, 2027 | 69.0% | -1.0 pts | +32.0 pts |
The shape of the curve is the story. A 46% price for year end and 66.5% for March 31 means traders see a real chance that coalition talks run past the 28-day window or the 14-day extension, or end in a new election, which would leave Netanyahu in office as caretaker for longer. The full event is on BetG8's Netanyahu out market page, and more political contracts are on the live Kalshi vs Polymarket odds board.
The coalition arithmetic
A government needs 61 seats. The Times of Israel describes the path as fraught: Eisenkot's change bloc of 48 plus United Torah Judaism's seven and Shas's six would reach exactly 61, but Shas publicly called reports that it could join an Eisenkot government "total fake news" and says it belongs to the right-wing bloc. Eisenkot has ruled out relying on Arab-led parties, Al Jazeera reports, though their members were among the 67 who recommended him. Al Jazeera adds that he could also govern with fewer than 61 seats if he wins a confidence vote.
The draft is the other fault line. Eisenkot requires mandatory service from any coalition partner, a condition that sits awkwardly with the ultra-Orthodox parties he needs, and the Democrats' Yair Golan opposes giving them what he called a blank check.
What Netanyahu is saying
In a video statement, Netanyahu called for a national unity government that would include his previous partners, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit and the ultra-Orthodox parties, and warned against any government that depends on Arab-led parties. Eisenkot's Yashar party answered by offering Likud a place in an Eisenkot-led government if it accepted his principles, without inviting Netanyahu himself, the Times of Israel reports.
If Eisenkot fails, Herzog can give the mandate to another candidate for the same period, and a parliamentary majority can then back a third candidate for 14 days. If no government forms, a new election is called within 90 days, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister, according to Al Jazeera.
What to watch next
The first test is whether either ultra-Orthodox party opens formal talks with Eisenkot. The 28-day clock from the Sunday handover runs into early December, so the December 31 contract is effectively a bet on a deal inside the first window or a short extension. Watch the gap between the December and March contracts: if it widens, the market is pricing a longer stalemate.
Method and limits
Prices, 24-hour and 7-day changes were read from Polymarket's Gamma API for the event netanyahu-out-before-2027 at 15:22 UTC on November 8, 2026. Prices move with every trade and are market odds, not predictions. Political facts come from the Times of Israel and Al Jazeera. BetG8 takes no side in Israeli politics; this page reports what the market prices.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds Netanyahu is out by the end of 2026?
As of 15:22 UTC on November 8, 2026, Polymarket priced Netanyahu leaving office by December 31 at 46%, up 29.5 points in seven days. The March 31, 2027 contract traded at 66.5%.
How long does Eisenkot have to form a government?
28 days from receiving the mandate, which President Herzog can extend by up to 14 days, according to the Times of Israel and Al Jazeera.
Does Netanyahu stay in office while coalition talks go on?
Yes. He remains prime minister until a new government is sworn in, and if no government forms a new election follows with Netanyahu as caretaker, Al Jazeera reports.
Sources
- Times of Israel, President Herzog taps Eisenkot to form coalition, but path remains fraught
- Al Jazeera, Israel's president picks Eisenkot over Netanyahu to form next government
- Polymarket, Netanyahu out by...?, read 15:22 UTC, November 8, 2026
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