Fed rate hike odds for January 2027 pass 50% on Kalshi and Polymarket as traders swap a bigger December move for back-to-back quarter points
The shift is less about how hot inflation is and more about how the Fed is expected to respond to it. After October CPI came in a tenth above forecasts on November 10, traders first bid up the chance of a half-point December hike. Since then that bet has been partly unwound, and the money has moved into a steadier path: a quarter point in December, then another quarter point in January. Our earlier coverage of the October CPI report and 50 bp odds and of Logan's call for two more hikes covered the first two days; this piece tracks what has changed since.
What the market is pricing
Prices from BetG8's live Fed rate decision odds page, which reads Polymarket and Kalshi every five minutes:
| Contract | Polymarket | Kalshi | Nov 10, 16:48 UTC (PM / Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2027: 25 bp hike | 56.5% | 58.0% | 49.5% / 47.5% |
| January 2027: no change | 41.5% | 39.5% | n/a |
| December 9: 25 bp hike | 90.5% | 89.5% | 84.5% / 84.5% |
| December 9: 50 bp or more | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.7% / 9.0% |
| December 9: no change | 2.6% | 4.5% | n/a |
Current prices were read at 16:52 UTC on November 12. The November 10 column comes from BetG8's earlier reads after the CPI release. Polymarket shows about $27.4 million traded on the December market and $2.9 million on January, so the January book is roughly a tenth the size and can move faster on smaller orders.
From one big step to two small ones
The combination in the table tells a consistent story. December 25 bp odds rose about six points to roughly 90%, while 50 bp odds slipped about three points. January hike odds climbed seven to ten points. Put together, traders are pricing a Fed that keeps raising rates at a measured pace rather than one that front-loads a single large move. Read naively, multiplying a 90% December quarter point by a 57% January quarter point puts roughly half the probability on two straight quarter-point hikes, though the contracts are not strictly independent.
That lines up with at least one bank forecast. Goldman Sachs economists led by David Mericle now expect three 25 bp hikes in this cycle, with December as the second and the third penciled in for March 2027, according to Phemex News, which cited PANews. Mericle said January is possible but March slightly more likely, and they pushed their first rate cut back to December 2027. On that view the prediction markets are a little ahead of Goldman on timing, not on direction.
Why the half-point bet faded
Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said before the CPI release that core inflation of about 0.3% or more would justify considering a half-point December hike, and the print met that bar. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued for at least two more quarter-point increases, according to Seoul Economic Daily and other reports. The two positions are not far apart on total tightening; they differ on speed. Markets appear to have settled on the Logan version: the same amount of tightening, spread over two meetings. CME FedWatch priced a December hike at close to 100% with about 13% on a 50 bp move earlier this week, according to Seoul Economic Daily, a little above where the prediction markets now sit. One analyst quoted by TheStreet said a December hike looks almost fully priced and that the bigger worry is how much further the Fed may need to tighten.
Why the venues still differ
Kalshi prices the January hike 1.5 points above Polymarket and the December pause 1.9 points higher too, so Kalshi traders put a bit more weight on both tails. Gaps of one to two points are normal on these contracts and are usually within the bid-ask spread plus fees. Our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison tracks shared markets side by side.
What to watch next
The next big inputs are Fed speeches before the pre-meeting quiet period, the November jobs report and November CPI, which lands before the December 9 decision. A soft jobs number would likely hit the January contract first, since December is nearly fully priced. Also watch the December dot plot: if the median shows only one more hike after December, January odds would likely fall back toward a coin flip even if a December move goes ahead.
Method and limits
Prices come from BetG8's Fed rate decision page, which reads the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API; figures were read at 16:47 and 16:52 UTC on November 12, 2026 and were unchanged between reads for January. Direct API reads through our fetch tool returned cached snapshots at lower January prices and were not used. Forecast and Fed comments are attributed to the outlets cited. Prices are not forecasts by BetG8, and BetG8 does not take a view on Fed policy.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in January 2027?
At 16:52 UTC on November 12, 2026, a 25 bp hike at the January 2027 meeting traded at 56.5% on Polymarket and 58.0% on Kalshi, with no change at 41.5% and 39.5%.
Is a December 2026 Fed hike priced in?
Mostly. A 25 bp December 9 hike traded at 90.5% on Polymarket and 89.5% on Kalshi, with a 50 bp or larger move at 7.8% and 7.5%.
What does Goldman Sachs expect from the Fed?
According to Phemex News, Goldman expects 25 bp hikes in December and March 2027, says January is possible, and sees the first cut in December 2027.
Sources
- Phemex News, Goldman Sachs adds third Fed rate hike in March 2027
- Seoul Economic Daily, U.S. CPI fuels talk of half-point Fed hike as Treasury yields spike
- TheStreet, Stock market today, November 11, 2026
- BetG8, Fed rate decision odds, live, read 16:52 UTC, November 12, 2026
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