Heisman Trophy odds 2026, live: every contender's price on Kalshi and Polymarket
Live · updated 2026-11-15 08:03 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes2026 Heisman Trophy winner
| Player | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 56.5% | 57.5% | -1.0 | -133 | Polymarket |
| Darian Mensah | 19.0% | 20.5% | -1.5 | +406 | Polymarket |
| Devon Dampier | – | 11.0% | – | +809 | – |
| CJ Carr | 7.3% | 6.5% | +0.8 | +1355 | Kalshi |
| Gunner Stockton | 3.1% | 2.5% | +0.6 | +3471 | Kalshi |
| Jayden Maiava | 2.7% | 1.0% | +1.7 | +5305 | Kalshi |
| LaNorris Sellers | 1.5% | 2.0% | -0.5 | +5614 | Polymarket |
| Gio Lopez | – | 1.5% | – | +6567 | – |
| Sam Leavitt | 1.9% | 1.0% | +0.9 | +6797 | Kalshi |
| Drew Mestemaker | 1.7% | 1.0% | +0.7 | +7447 | Kalshi |
| Bo Jackson | 1.6% | 1.0% | +0.6 | +7592 | Kalshi |
| Jesse Legree | 1.6% | 1.0% | +0.6 | +7592 | Kalshi |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 1.2% | 1.0% | +0.2 | +8991 | – |
| Julian Sayin | 1.1% | 1.0% | +0.1 | +9202 | – |
| Keelon Russell | 1.1% | 1.0% | +0.1 | +9202 | – |
| Bryce Underwood | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.2 | +11011 | – |
| Josh Hoover | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.3 | +11329 | – |
| Kevin Jennings | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +12803 | – |
| Malachi Toney | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13233 | Polymarket |
| Arch Manning | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13693 | Polymarket |
| Dante Moore | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 | +14715 | Polymarket |
| Ahmad Hardy | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Kewan Lacy | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Brendan Sorsby | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| John Mateer | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
How to read the table
Each row is one player. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market's implied probability: a player at 20% costs 20 cents and pays $1 if he wins. We use the midpoint of the best bid and ask where the book is tight and the last trade otherwise. PM − Kalshi is the gap in percentage points; a negative number means Polymarket is cheaper, a positive one means Kalshi is. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying the player costs less before fees.
How the Heisman market thinks
The trophy is decided by ballots from media voters across six regions, former winners and one fan vote, with each voter ranking three players on a 3-2-1 points basis. Quarterbacks and skill players on playoff contenders win most years, so a contender's price moves with his team's record as well as his own numbers. November is when the order changes most: one big game against a ranked opponent can add several points, and a loss or an injury can take a player out of the race in a weekend. The national championship odds page shows how the same markets rate each player's team.
Prediction market prices vs sportsbook odds
A sportsbook builds a margin into every award price, and the total implied probability on a typical Heisman board runs well above 100%. Exchanges come much closer to 100%, so converting the price to American odds lets you compare directly. Our odds converter and price comparison tool do the math, and this explainer covers how the vig works.
Method and limits
Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and refresh every five minutes. Players are matched by name, so one listed on only one venue shows a dash in the other column. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?
The first row of the live table is the current favorite, ranked by the average of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices. The order changes most after big November games and after conference championship weekend.
When is the Heisman Trophy awarded?
The Heisman is presented in December, after the conference championship games, and the markets on this page settle when the winner is announced.
Can I trade Heisman odds from the US?
Kalshi offers sports event contracts in most US states, although several states have challenged them in court. Polymarket's main venue is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate app with its own books.
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