Wembanyama MVP odds: a 22-point comeback in Chicago makes it 10 straight, and the Kalshi vs Polymarket split on the award has all but closed
Chicago scored 41 points in the first quarter and led by 22 midway through the second, its biggest lead of the season, according to the AP recap carried by KSAT. The Spurs opened the third quarter on an 18-3 run, helped by five Bulls turnovers, and took control with an 11-2 run in the fourth, per TSN. Dylan Harper added 18 points, 10 assists and four steals, and De'Aaron Fox had 17 points and nine assists. San Antonio played without Devin Vassell (adductor) and finished a 4-0 road trip. The game came two days after Wembanyama's 40-point night against Phoenix, which we covered in our report on the ninth straight win; at that point he trailed Doncic on both venues.
What the market is pricing
Wembanyama's MVP price, as read by BetG8 over the last three days (UTC):
| Read time | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap (Kalshi minus PM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 13:21 | 31.0% | 34.5% | 3.5 pts |
| Nov 11, 14:44 (before tip-off) | 33.5% | 37.0% | 3.5 pts |
| Nov 12, 00:47 | 32.5% | 36.5% | 4.0 pts |
| Nov 12, 04:44 (after the game) | 35.0% | 37.5% | 2.5 pts |
| Nov 12, 16:46 | 37.0% | 37.5% | 0.5 pts |
At the latest read the rest of the top of the board was Doncic at 35.4% on Polymarket and 33.5% on Kalshi, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 9.0% and 9.5%, and Nikola Jokic at 6.5% and 4.5%. On the title market the Spurs remain favorites at 22.5% on Polymarket and 21.5% on Kalshi. The full boards are on BetG8's live NBA MVP odds page and NBA championship odds page.
Why the gap closed from one side
The convergence came almost entirely from Polymarket. Kalshi's Wembanyama price moved only from 37.0% before the Chicago game to 37.5% afterward, while Polymarket's rose from 32.5% late Wednesday to 37.0% on Thursday. In other words, Kalshi traders had already priced Wembanyama as the narrow favorite, and Polymarket caught up. On Doncic the venues still differ by 1.9 points in the other direction, with Polymarket the more bullish. A gap of half a point on Wembanyama is inside the typical spread on a long-dated award market, so BetG8's live table no longer treats either venue as clearly cheaper. Our Kalshi vs Polymarket page tracks every shared market.
What a comeback adds, and what it does not
Voters reward the best player on a top seed, and a 10-game streak with the title favorite helps that case. A single comeback win over a 1-9 team, however, carries little information on its own; the more likely driver is the accumulation of results. Two structural factors still cap any MVP price this early. The league's 65-game eligibility rule means an injury can remove a favorite regardless of form, and 70 regular-season games remain. Even after the move, both venues price Wembanyama below 40%, meaning the market still sees the field as more likely than any single player.
What to watch next
San Antonio hosts Golden State on Friday, per the AP. Watch whether the venues stay level on Wembanyama or reopen a gap, and whether Doncic's Polymarket premium narrows in turn. Injury reports matter more than box scores in this market: any news on Wembanyama's availability would move both prices more than another 40-point night.
Method and limits
The 16:46 UTC prices come from BetG8's live MVP and championship pages, which read the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API every five minutes and use the midpoint of the best bid and ask. Earlier readings come from BetG8's newsroom log at the times shown. Game details are from the AP recap via KSAT, TSN and Fox San Antonio. Prices are not forecasts, and nothing here is betting advice.
LIVE MARKETPro Football 2027 ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- NBA MVP odds, live on Kalshi and Polymarket
- Wembanyama MVP odds after 40 points and nine straight
- Luka Doncic MVP odds after 53 points
- NBA championship odds, live
- Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
Frequently asked questions
What are Wembanyama's MVP odds?
At 16:46 UTC on November 12, 2026, Victor Wembanyama was priced at 37.0% on Polymarket and 37.5% on Kalshi to win the 2026-27 NBA MVP, the favorite on both venues.
Do Kalshi and Polymarket agree on the NBA MVP favorite?
Yes, as of November 12. Earlier in the week Polymarket had Luka Doncic on top while Kalshi had Wembanyama, but the gap on Wembanyama has narrowed to 0.5 points.
How long is the Spurs' winning streak?
Ten games, after a 124-119 win in Chicago on November 11, 2026, in which San Antonio came back from 22 points down.
Sources
- KSAT (AP), Wembanyama, Harper lead Spurs to 10th straight win, 124-119 over Bulls
- TSN, Wembanyama, Harper lead Spurs to 10th straight win
- Fox San Antonio, Spurs beat Bulls 124-119 at Chicago's United Center
- Kalshi, NBA MVP, read 16:46 UTC, November 12, 2026
- Polymarket, NBA 2026-27 MVP, read 16:46 UTC, November 12, 2026
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