Notre Dame 31, Miami 24: the Irish beat No. 1 and the market now prices their title chances at 18%
Notre Dame (8-1) led 17-3 at halftime and 24-3 early in the third quarter, then had to survive a Miami rally that twice cut the gap to one score. The game turned on a fourth-down play with 3:36 left, when Elija Lofton appeared to catch a touchdown that would have made it 31-30. Officials ruled the pass incomplete after Luke Talich knocked the ball loose, and Notre Dame ran most of the remaining clock. CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to Micah Gilbert, according to NBC Sports and ESPN.
What the market is pricing
Before kickoff, BetG8's newsroom log had Notre Dame at 14.5% on Polymarket and 15.5% on Kalshi to win the national title, and Miami at 11.2% and 9.5%. Overnight the Irish gained 2.5 to 3.5 points and the two venues now agree exactly. Miami lost 1.4 points on Polymarket and 0.5 on Kalshi, which suggests traders read the defeat as damaging but not fatal for a team that is still 8-1.
| National title, Nov 8, 08:49 UTC | Polymarket | Kalshi | American odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 28.9% | 28.5% | +248 |
| Notre Dame | 18.0% | 18.0% | +456 |
| Miami | 9.8% | 9.5% | +939 |
| Alabama | 9.5% | 10.5% | +900 |
| Texas | 7.7% | 9.5% | +1063 |
| Indiana | 7.3% | 8.5% | +1170 |
American odds are the conversion shown on BetG8's live page. Every contender is on the college football championship odds page, refreshed every five minutes. The Heisman market moved as well: Carr leads at 32.0% on Polymarket and 34.5% on Kalshi, ahead of Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith at 21.0% and 22.5% and Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at 20.0% and 22.5%.
How the game turned
Notre Dame kicked a first-quarter field goal and added two touchdowns in the second quarter. Miami, playing its first game without injured receiver Malachi Toney, managed only a field goal before the break. ESPN's line score shows Miami winning the second half 21-14, with Mensah throwing three touchdown passes, two of them to Cooper Barkate and one to Lofton. Jordan Faison caught Notre Dame's third touchdown pass and Nolan James Jr. scored on the ground.
Carr finished 29 of 40 for 319 yards. Gilbert caught nine passes for 98 yards and Faison six for 77, according to NBC Sports. ESPN noted that Notre Dame's 27-24 loss to Miami last season kept the Irish out of the playoff, which gave this rematch an edge well beyond one November weekend.
What it means for the playoff picture
Miami's loss leaves Utah and UCLA as the only unbeaten FBS teams, both 9-0, the first time since 2003 that only two teams have reached nine games without a loss, according to ESPN. The title market is not convinced by either: both trade at 3.5% on Kalshi and have no matched Polymarket price on BetG8's page. Georgia, which beat Ole Miss 42-7 the same night, is the clear favourite at 28.9% and 28.5%, and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution expects the Bulldogs to move to No. 1 when the next CFP rankings are released.
An 18% price means the market gives Notre Dame roughly a one-in-six chance of finishing as champion. The number reflects the format as much as the win: a team that reaches the 12-team field still has to win three or four games against top opposition to lift the trophy.
What to watch next
The CFP selection committee publishes its next rankings on Tuesday, November 10, at 9 p.m. ET. Watch where Notre Dame and Miami land relative to each other, and whether the Irish title price holds near 18% once the rankings are out. The final rankings that set the field are due on December 6.
Method and limits
Title and Heisman prices were read from BetG8's live college football page, which pulls Polymarket and Kalshi quotes, at 08:49 UTC on November 8, 2026. Pre-game prices come from BetG8's newsroom log on November 7. Prices move with every trade and are market odds, not predictions. Game details come from NBC Sports, ESPN and Yahoo Sports. Polls rank the teams differently, so this page uses records where sources disagree.
LIVE MARKETPro Football 2027 ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- College football championship odds, live on Kalshi and Polymarket
- Miami vs Notre Dame odds before kickoff
- Georgia vs Ole Miss score and playoff odds
- Ohio State playoff chances after the Oregon loss
- Odds converter
Frequently asked questions
What was the Notre Dame vs Miami score?
Notre Dame won 31-24 in South Bend on November 7, 2026, after leading 24-3 early in the third quarter. Both teams are now 8-1.
What are Notre Dame's national championship odds?
As of 08:49 UTC on November 8, Polymarket and Kalshi both priced Notre Dame at 18.0% to win the national title, up from 14.5% and 15.5% before the game. Only Georgia was priced higher.
Is Miami out of the title race after the loss?
The market does not price it that way. Miami was at 9.8% on Polymarket and 9.5% on Kalshi to win the title, third on Polymarket behind Georgia and Notre Dame. The next CFP rankings come out on Tuesday, November 10.
Sources
- NBC Sports, Notre Dame knocks off top-ranked Miami 31-24
- ESPN, Notre Dame fends off Miami rally to dethrone top-ranked Hurricanes
- Yahoo Sports, Notre Dame knocks off top-ranked Miami 31-24
- Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Georgia vs Ole Miss
- BetG8, College football championship odds, live, read 08:49 UTC, November 8, 2026
18+ only. This page reports live market prices and game results from public sources. It is not betting, financial or investment advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.