NFL MVP odds 2026, live: every contender’s price on Kalshi and Polymarket

Live data · Prices refresh every 5 minutes · 18+ · Not financial advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Live odds

Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes

2026 NFL MVP

Polymarket volume $1.4M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Player	Polymarket	Kalshi	PM − Kalshi	Odds	Cheaper YES
Josh Allen	31.5%	27.5%	+4.0	+239	Kalshi
Joe Burrow	16.9%	19.5%	-2.6	+449	Polymarket
Brock Purdy	16.3%	16.5%	-0.3	+511	–
Caleb Williams	10.3%	10.5%	-0.3	+864	–
Trevor Lawrence	7.1%	9.5%	-2.4	+1108	Polymarket
Drake Maye	3.6%	5.5%	-1.9	+2110	Polymarket
Jordan Love	3.0%	5.5%	-2.5	+2239	Polymarket
Patrick Mahomes	2.3%	3.5%	-1.2	+3348	Polymarket
Jared Goff	3.1%	2.5%	+0.6	+3440	Kalshi
Jaxson Smith-Njigba	2.9%	2.5%	+0.4	+3604	–
Justin Herbert	1.0%	1.0%	+0.0	+9656	–
Jalen Hurts	0.7%	1.0%	-0.3	+12021	–
Jahmyr Gibbs	0.1%	1.5%	-1.4	+12021	Polymarket
Bo Nix	0.5%	1.0%	-0.5	+13233	Polymarket
Matthew Stafford	0.4%	1.0%	-0.6	+14186	Polymarket
Dak Prescott	0.4%	1.0%	-0.7	+14715	Polymarket
Lamar Jackson	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+17291	Polymarket
Baker Mayfield	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+17291	Polymarket
Jaxson Dart	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+17291	Polymarket
Bijan Robinson	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+18082	Polymarket
Sam Darnold	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+18082	Polymarket
Justin Jefferson	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+18082	Polymarket
Saquon Barkley	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+18082	Polymarket
Puka Nacua	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+18082	Polymarket
Christian McCaffrey	0.1%	1.0%	-0.9	+18082	Polymarket

The short version: this page shows the live price of every player to win the 2026 NFL MVP award on Kalshi and on Polymarket. The odds column turns the average of the two prices into American odds, so you can compare it with any sportsbook’s award board. MVP is a vote, not a game, so the market prices narrative and team record as much as statistics.

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How to read the table

Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a player at 15% costs 15 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.

How the MVP market thinks

The award is decided by a panel of national media voters after the regular season, and the Associated Press now uses a ranked five-place ballot. Voters reward a quarterback on a top seed far more often than a great player on a middling team: through the 2024 season only three non-quarterbacks had won it since 2001, all running backs (2005, 2006 and 2012). That is why the price of a contender moves with his team’s record as much as with his own numbers, and why an injury that costs a starter three or four games usually ends his chances. Long shots at 1% to 3% are where the two venues disagree most, because few traders bother to price them.

Prediction market futures vs sportsbook futures

A sportsbook builds its margin into every futures price: add up the implied probability of every player’s odds on a typical award board and the total often comes to 120% or more, against roughly 100% on an exchange. That difference is the hold, and it is largest on long shots. Converting the exchange price to American odds lets you compare directly: if a book offers a player at +900 and the exchange prices it at 12% (about +733), the book is paying more for the same outcome; if the book offers +600, the exchange is the better price. Our price comparison tool does the conversion and this explainer covers how the vig works.

Why the same event has two prices

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.

Method and limits

Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favorite to win NFL MVP?

The first row of the live table is the current favorite, ranked by the average of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices. The order changes most after prime-time games and injuries.

When does the NFL MVP market settle?

When the award is announced at the NFL Honors ceremony in the week before Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. The vote itself is taken after the regular season, so playoff games do not count.

How do I turn these prices into sportsbook odds?

The price is the probability: 12 cents means 12%. Below 50%, American odds are 100 × (1 − p) / p, so 12% is about +733; above 50% they are −100 × p / (1 − p). Our odds converter handles any format.

Can I trade these markets from the US?

Kalshi offers sports event contracts in most US states, although several states have challenged them in court; check the 50-state tracker. Polymarket’s main venue is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate app with its own books.