Brent crude below $90: oil's first sub-$90 print since August, 25% off the October peak, and Fed hike odds have not moved
OilPrice.com reported that Brent had already dipped below $92 at the start of Asian trading before reaching $89.70 in Europe, with WTI down more than 2% and below $85. The National put Brent at $90.32 and WTI at $84.77, down 2.27%, at 1:33 p.m. UAE time. The slide extends the previous week's 17% fall, Brent's largest weekly drop since the 2020 sell-off, per OilPrice.com. On Monday alone Brent had fallen about 4% to around $94, according to OilPrice.com and TipRanks.
What the market is pricing
Traded oil funds and rate markets tell two different stories. The oil complex is pricing less risk to supply; the rate markets are still pricing a central bank that is worried about inflation.
| Market, November 10 | Price | Source, read (UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent intraday low | $89.70 | OilPrice.com |
| Brent / WTI, 1:33 p.m. UAE time | $90.32 / $84.77 | The National |
| USO (oil ETF), pre-market | $138.90, -2.6% vs $142.66 close | Twelve Data, 13:11 |
| Dec FOMC 25 bp hike | 87.5% Polymarket, 88.0% Kalshi | BetG8 live Fed odds, 13:21 |
| Dec FOMC no change | 6.5% Polymarket, 7.5% Kalshi | BetG8 live Fed odds, 13:21 |
| Dec FOMC 50 bp or larger hike | 4.3% Polymarket, 5.0% Kalshi | BetG8 live Fed odds, 13:21 |
A day earlier, on Monday morning, BetG8's newsroom read the same 25 bp December hike at 76.5% on both venues while Brent traded near $94. Oil has fallen about $4 since then and the hike price has risen roughly 11 points. The live Fed rate decision odds page refreshes every five minutes.
Why oil is falling
OilPrice.com attributes the move to signs of de-escalation: President Trump suggested no strikes on Iran were needed at this point, and traders are hoping a Qatar-mediated diplomatic push can produce an agreement. Crude flows have nearly returned to pre-war levels, although liquefied natural gas and refined products, especially diesel, remain tight. Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, have continued, but the latest fire was limited and put out.
Why the Fed odds did not follow oil down
Lower energy prices feed into headline inflation with a lag, while the Fed's recent language has focused on core prices and demand. Governor Christopher Waller said in London on Tuesday that he would support a 25 bp hike in December even if October inflation improves, and that a 50 bp move should be considered if core prices rise 0.3% or more from September, according to Reuters. The hike price on both venues rose through the morning as his remarks circulated. In other words, traders are treating the oil slide as a relief for consumers rather than a reason for the Fed to wait.
What to watch next
The October CPI report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, is the next test; it will not include a year-over-year headline figure because October 2025 prices were not collected during the shutdown, per the BLS. After that, watch whether Brent holds below $90 on a closing basis and whether any Iran agreement is announced. Kalshi also lists oil-linked contracts; our explainer on Kalshi's WTI perpetual futures covers how they work.
Method and limits
Brent and WTI levels are as reported by OilPrice.com and The National; BetG8 does not take a direct Brent futures feed. USO prices are from Twelve Data. Fed odds come from BetG8's live page, which reads the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API every five minutes; figures here were read at 13:21 UTC on November 10, 2026, before the CPI release. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Frequently asked questions
Why is Brent crude below $90?
OilPrice.com reports signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, hopes for a Qatar-mediated agreement and crude flows that have nearly returned to pre-war levels. Brent touched $89.70 on November 10, 2026, after a 17% drop the previous week.
How far is oil from its peak?
Brent hit a late-October high above $117 a barrel and is now about 25% below it, per OilPrice.com.
Has cheaper oil changed Fed rate odds?
Not so far. At 13:21 UTC on November 10, 2026, Polymarket priced a 25 bp December hike at 87.5% and Kalshi at 88.0%, on BetG8's live Fed odds page.
Sources
- OilPrice.com, Brent crude falls below $90 for first time since August
- The National, Brent falls below $90 a barrel
- OilPrice.com, Oil sinks to $94
- Reuters via SRN News, Fed's Waller plans to support at least a quarter-point hike
- BLS, 2025 shutdown impact on the CPI
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