Bills Super Bowl odds: a 23-6 Monday night win in Minnesota moves Buffalo level with the 49ers at the top of the board
With Kyler Murray nursing a hamstring injury, Carson Wentz started for Minnesota and finished 8 of 25 for 81 yards with two interceptions. Josh Allen went 21 of 31 for 234 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and James Cook ran for 107 yards and a score. Tyler Bass kicked field goals from 39, 25 and 52 yards, extending his run to 24 straight makes, per Pro Football Talk and WKBW. The Vikings' only points came from two field goals, and they never converted a third down.
What the market is pricing
Before kickoff Buffalo was priced at about 62% to win the game. The futures board after the result, as read at 13:21 UTC on November 10 from BetG8's live Super Bowl odds page:
| Win Super Bowl LXI, 13:21 UTC Nov 10 | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 14.3% | 15.0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.8% | 2.5% |
At 14.5% the implied American odds are about +590. Polymarket now has Buffalo narrowly first; Kalshi still has San Francisco half a point ahead. A difference that small sits inside the bid-ask spread on both venues, so the two books effectively agree that the AFC and NFC favorites are level.
Why the defense moved the price
Buffalo's offense has carried the team for most of Allen's career, and a 42-minute time-of-possession edge shows the Bills could also win by grinding. Holding a 6-1 team to six points on the road gives the market evidence that the defense can hold up in January. The caveat is the opponent: Minnesota was without its starting quarterback, and Wentz's 3.2 yards per attempt flatters any defense. Traders appear to have priced the result as useful but not decisive, which is why the move was a point or two rather than a jump.
For Minnesota, a second straight loss leaves the Vikings 6-2 and still in a strong playoff position, so their small title price says more about the quarterback question than about the record. A team priced at 2.5% to 2.8% with six wins in eight games is being valued as a likely playoff side that traders doubt can win three or four January games without its starter at full health.
Allen and the MVP board
Allen's line was efficient rather than spectacular. Before the game, on Monday morning, he was second on the MVP board behind Joe Burrow, and the current prices are on BetG8's NFL MVP odds page. For a quarterback on a 7-1 team, the price tends to follow wins as much as yards, so the record keeps him close to the top even on quiet statistical nights.
What to watch next
Three things: Murray's hamstring, since a Minnesota team at 6-2 still has a strong playoff case if he returns quickly; Bass's streak, which matters in a team that settles for field goals; and whether Kalshi and Polymarket keep Buffalo and San Francisco level. A clear gap opening between the two favorites on one venue but not the other would be the more interesting signal than either price alone.
Method and limits
Prices come from BetG8's live Super Bowl and MVP pages, which read the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API every five minutes; figures were read at 13:21 UTC on November 10, 2026. The pre-game price is from BetG8's newsroom queue. American odds are converted from the 14.5% shared price. Game statistics are from Pro Football Talk, WKBW and the Star Tribune. Prices are not forecasts by BetG8.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Bills' Super Bowl odds?
At 13:21 UTC on November 10, 2026, Buffalo was 14.5% to win Super Bowl LXI on both Polymarket and Kalshi, about +590 in American odds.
What was the score of Bills vs Vikings?
Buffalo won 23-6 on Monday Night Football on November 9, moving to 7-1. Minnesota fell to 6-2.
Who started at quarterback for the Vikings?
Carson Wentz started in place of the injured Kyler Murray and went 8 of 25 for 81 yards with two interceptions.
Sources
- Pro Football Talk, Monday Night Football: Bills wear down Vikings 23-6
- WKBW, Bills beat Vikings 23-6 in primetime matchup
- Star Tribune, Vikings vs Bills live updates
- BetG8, Super Bowl odds, live, read 13:21 UTC, November 10, 2026
18+ only. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice, and prices are not predictions. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.