Polymarket and Kalshi gave at least $5 million to both parties this cycle, nine days before a midterm they are taking $1.4 billion of bets on

Analysis · Updated October 25, 2026 · 18+ · Not legal advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Prediction Markets

Polymarket and Kalshi political donations — The two largest US prediction markets have started paying into the politics that decides whether they can operate.

Short answer: Reuters reported on October 22 that Kalshi, Polymarket and their founders have given at least $5 million to Republican and Democratic groups in the 2026 cycle, a sharp increase on 2024 and the companies' first significant political giving. Republicans received $2.7 million and Democrats the rest. The largest single item Reuters found was $1 million from Polymarket to House Majority Forward, a Democratic nonprofit that does not disclose its donors, paid this summer. Just over a third of all the money went to state-level groups backing candidates for governor, attorney general and the legislature, which are the offices suing, regulating or legislating against the two companies' sports contracts. The giving lands nine days before an election on which, according to CNN, the same companies have already taken more than $1.4 billion of trades.

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Who gave what

The figures below are from the Reuters report, which used campaign finance records, a private remittance document and an analysis by the Center for Political Accountability, a transparency nonprofit. They are minimums: some vehicles, including nonprofits, do not have to disclose donors, and filings for the final weeks before the election were not yet public.

Giver	Recipient	Amount	Lean
Polymarket (Blockratize Inc.)	House Majority Forward, a Democratic nonprofit that does not disclose donors	$1 million, paid this summer	Democratic
Polymarket and CEO Shayne Coplan	Republican National Committee, a super PAC supporting House Republicans, and V-PAC, which backs Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governor	About $1.3 million combined	Republican
Polymarket	Two Democratic and one Republican state-level group	Nearly $250,000	Mixed
Kalshi founders Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour	Federal candidates and committees, as of early October	At least $1 million	About 72% Republican
Kalshi	State-level political groups	Nearly $1.5 million	Roughly even
All of the above	Reuters total	At least $5 million	$2.7 million Republican

Coplan previously gave almost exclusively to Democrats, Reuters said, and broadened his giving this cycle. Reuters could not find contributions from the Kalshi founders in public records for earlier cycles. Kalshi's head of federal government relations, John Bivona, told Reuters that complete disclosures by Election Day would show the company's giving was roughly evenly split, and that regulation that keeps prediction markets safe for consumers is not a partisan issue. A Polymarket spokesperson said only that the company engages with all sides of the debate.

Why a third of the money went to state races

Federal registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the companies' main legal shield, and the Trump administration has generally supported the industry. The attacks come from the states. Gaming regulators, attorneys general and tribes have sued to block Kalshi, Polymarket and others from offering sports contracts, arguing that they are gambling under state law, and several states have sent cease-and-desist letters; our 50-state tracker and enforcement index list every action. Governors appoint regulators, attorneys general bring the suits and legislatures write the gambling statutes, so state-level giving goes to the people who decide those fights.

The Center for Political Accountability found that the state-level money so far marginally favours Democrats, which its vice president for research, Jeanne Hanna, told Reuters may reflect an expectation that Democrats will do well in state races this cycle. One federal item stands out against that background: Polymarket's money to a super PAC backing Vivek Ramaswamy for governor of Ohio, the state whose Casino Control Commission ordered prediction markets to stop offering sports contracts this month and told its own sportsbooks to cut ties with them, as we reported in Ohio's October 30 deadline for licensees.

The markets the donors run

CNN reported on October 23 that trading on the 2026 midterms had passed $1.4 billion: nearly $1.1 billion on Kalshi, more than $340 million on Polymarket including its offshore site, and more than $6.4 million on ForecastEx, the venue owned by Interactive Brokers. Kalshi has suspended six candidates for betting on their own races, and federal regulators have said they will pursue insider trading in election markets. Our live midterm odds page puts Kalshi and Polymarket prices for the House, the Senate and the key races side by side, and Polymarket's balance of power market is the single busiest election contract on either venue.

A company that takes bets on an election and also funds candidates in it raises an obvious question. The honest answer is that donations do not change how a contract settles: election markets on both venues resolve on certified results, not on anyone's view. What donations can change is which contracts exist and where. The legal fights now running through state courts and the Supreme Court will decide whether sports contracts are allowed in a given state, and that is the part of the business the state-level giving is aimed at. Democrats in Congress have introduced several bills to restrict prediction markets and a handful of Republicans have raised concerns about election betting; the giving gives both companies a voice in those debates. As David Primo, a political scientist at the University of Rochester, put it to Reuters, if the companies do not engage with these politicians, other people will write the regulations.

Method and limits

Every donation figure here is from the Reuters report of October 22, 2026, which relied on campaign finance records, a remittance document Reuters saw and the Center for Political Accountability's state-level data; we have not independently checked filings. The totals are floors, because dark-money nonprofits do not disclose donors and late-cycle filings were not public. Volume figures are CNN's, from company spokespeople, and count money changing hands rather than net exposure. This page does not suggest that any donation influenced any regulator, court or market price. It is not legal advice.

Frequently asked questions

How much have Polymarket and Kalshi donated to politicians?

Reuters reported on October 22, 2026 that the two companies and their founders gave at least $5 million to Republican and Democratic groups in the 2026 cycle, based on campaign finance records and a private remittance document. Republicans received $2.7 million and Democrats the rest.

Did Polymarket give money to Democrats or Republicans?

Both. Polymarket paid $1 million this summer to House Majority Forward, a Democratic nonprofit that does not disclose donors, and Polymarket and its chief executive Shayne Coplan directed roughly $1.3 million to Republican committees and candidates, including the Republican National Committee and a super PAC backing Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governor.

Why are prediction markets donating to state campaigns?

Just over a third of the money went to groups backing candidates for governor, attorney general and state legislature, according to the Center for Political Accountability. State regulators, attorneys general and tribes are the parties suing to stop Kalshi and Polymarket offering sports contracts, so those offices decide much of the industry's legal future.

How much has been bet on the 2026 midterms?

CNN reported on October 23 that midterm markets had passed $1.4 billion in trading volume: nearly $1.1 billion on Kalshi, more than $340 million on Polymarket and more than $6.4 million on ForecastEx.