Sports

NBA championship odds 2027, live: every team on Kalshi and Polymarket

All 30 teams with live title prices on both venues, implied probability, American odds and the cheaper side, refreshed every 5 minutes.

Super Bowl odds, live: every NFL team on Kalshi and Polymarket

All 32 teams with live prices to win Super Bowl LXI on both venues, with American odds to compare against any sportsbook board.

Stanley Cup odds 2027, live: every NHL team on Kalshi and Polymarket

All 32 NHL teams with live prices to win the 2027 Stanley Cup on both venues, with American odds and the cheaper side.

College football title odds, live: the national championship race on Kalshi and Polymarket

Live prices for every contender to win the 2026 national title, matched across both venues and repriced after each playoff rankings release.

Champions League odds, live: every club's chance to win the 2027 final

One of the most traded futures in the world, side by side on Kalshi and Polymarket, with American odds for every club still alive.

Premier League title odds, live: who wins 2026-27 on Kalshi and Polymarket

All 20 clubs with live title prices on both venues, implied probability and American odds, refreshed every 5 minutes.

La Liga title odds, live: Barcelona, Real Madrid and the rest

How Kalshi and Polymarket split the Spanish title race, with American odds and the cheaper venue for each club.

NFL MVP odds 2026, live: every contender on Kalshi and Polymarket

Every player with a live MVP price on both venues, with American odds to compare against any sportsbook award board.

NBA MVP odds 2026-27, live: every contender on Kalshi and Polymarket

Doncic, Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest, priced live on both venues, with American odds and the cheaper side.

How bookmakers set odds: where the opening number comes from, how the margin is built in, and why the line moves

A power rating becomes a line, -110 on both sides becomes a 4.55 percent margin, and sharp money moves the number. A worked example, Levitt's finding that books do not balance, and Nevada hold data from 2018 to 2025.

Implied probability converter: turn any odds or cent price into a probability, then take the vig out

Enter American, decimal or fractional odds or Kalshi and Polymarket cent prices for up to four outcomes and get the implied probability, the overround and the no-vig fair price in every format.

Closing line value explained: what it measures, how to calculate it, and why the final price is the benchmark

Take +150 on a side that closes at +120 and the no-vig edge is about 9.5 percent. The CLV formula, a Kalshi version with fees, and what a test of 87,960 Pinnacle prices found.

Postponed game: what happens to your sportsbook bet, your Kalshi contract and your Polymarket shares

Sportsbooks void a bet if the game misses their window and return the stake. Kalshi's football terms allow 48 hours, then settle at a fair price; Polymarket waits for the make-up game or pays $0.50 a share.

The NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction markets and signed a CFTC pact, six days after a betting memo that skipped the exchanges

Kalshi's basketball volume has averaged more than $100 million a day since tip-off. The deal adds market limits, a personnel trading ban and a CFTC information channel, but publishes no restricted list and changes no state's law.

Sportsbook vs prediction market arbitrage: how the math works, what the fees take, and the five ways a locked profit comes unlocked

A +120 sportsbook price against a 52-cent Kalshi contract locks about 0.8 percent after fees, and a one-cent move erases it. The formula, a worked table, voided bets, stake limits and settlement mismatches.

Expected value explained: the one number behind every bet, and why a positive number is not a promise

The EV formula for American, decimal and cent prices, a -110 table, a Kalshi contract worked through with the fee, and why a genuine 55 percent edge still finishes behind about 30 percent of the time over 100 bets.

The Kelly criterion for prediction markets: how the formula sizes a position on a contract priced in cents, what fees do to it, and why most people use a fraction

A worked guide: at a 60 percent estimate and a 52-cent price, full Kelly is 16.7 percent of the bankroll, 13.5 percent after a Kalshi taker fee. Overstate the edge by five points and full Kelly shrinks the median bankroll by 38 percent over 100 trades.

How do parlays work? How the payout is calculated, why the house edge multiplies with every leg, and what pushes and same-game parlays change

Moneyline, spread and totals explained: the three core bets, how each one pays, and what the same markets look like on a prediction exchange

What is the vig? How sportsbook margin works, what books actually keep, and how it compares with an exchange fee

The NBA opens tonight with four bet types pulled from its sportsbook partners. Prediction markets were never asked, and the same contracts are still listed.

Implied probability explained: how to turn odds into a percentage, strip out the vig and compare it with a prediction market price

Can you bet NFL player props on prediction markets?

What happens to a tennis bet if a player retires mid-match?

Do preseason rankings predict the CFB champion?

NFL camps open, Super Bowl board reprices