MacKinnon injury update: Avalanche star out about a month and Makar two weeks, and the Stanley Cup odds have not moved from 9.5%
This is an update to our Friday report on the two injuries, written when the team had given no diagnosis and no timeline. Both are now known.
What happened
Bednar gave the timelines before Saturday's game in Montreal, according to NHL.com. The Gazette in Colorado Springs reported the MacKinnon estimate as at least a month. If the estimates hold, Makar would be back in late November and MacKinnon around the middle of December.
MacKinnon was hurt with 8:15 left in the second period on Thursday, November 12, when he tried a reverse hit on Senators defenseman Artem Zub, grabbed at his right side and left for the tunnel after a short stay on the bench. Makar's problem was different in kind. NHL.com reported that he left after a four-second shift midway through the same period, tried one more shift of 23 seconds and did not play again. Bednar described it as a soft-tissue issue that Makar had been playing through and that had gradually worsened. Colorado lost the game 4-3 in overtime.
The two absences remove the top of Colorado's scoring chart. MacKinnon leads the team with 30 points (10 goals, 20 assists) in 20 games, fifth in the NHL. Makar has 23 points (5 goals, 18 assists) in 19 games, third on the team and tied for third among the league's defensemen.
The lineup changes are already set. Rookie defenseman Alex Gagne makes his NHL debut in Makar's place and forward Gavin Brindley comes in for MacKinnon, per NHL.com. The Gazette reported that Devon Toews and Sam Malinski take over the top defense pair and that Nazem Kadri is expected to center the first line.
What the market is pricing
Stanley Cup prices are from BetG8's live Stanley Cup odds page, stamped 23:09 UTC on November 14. The comparison column is our read at 10:58 UTC on November 13, before any timeline was public. The game price is from Polymarket's public data feed at 23:10 UTC, about 50 minutes before the scheduled start in Montreal.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Change since November 13 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cup: Carolina Hurricanes | 12.5% | 13.5% | None on either venue |
| Cup: Edmonton Oilers | 11.5% | 9.5% | None on either venue |
| Cup: Colorado Avalanche | 9.5% | 10.5% | None on either venue |
| Cup: Minnesota Wild | 7.4% | 10.5% | Polymarket up 0.1, Kalshi up 1.0 |
| Saturday: Avalanche win at Canadiens | 43.5% | n/a | Down 4.0 points from 47.5% |
The average of Colorado's two Cup prices is 10%, which converts to +900 in American odds. On Kalshi the Avalanche now share second place with Minnesota at 10.5%. The clearest reaction is in the single-game market: Colorado was priced at 47.5% to win in Montreal on Friday morning, when the status of both players was unknown, and at 43.5% on Saturday evening with both ruled out. About $36,000 had traded.
Why it matters
A flat futures price after bad news suggests the news landed inside the range traders had already allowed for. On Friday, "lower body" covered everything from one missed game to a long absence, and the Cup contract was priced on that spread of outcomes. A month for MacKinnon and two weeks for Makar means both are expected back well before the playoffs begin in the spring, and a futures contract that settles in June is mostly a view on playoff health.
What the absences can change is the regular season. Colorado is 11-6-3 with 25 points, third in the Central Division behind Minnesota and Nashville, according to The Gazette. A month without the team's leading scorer puts seeding and home ice at risk, which feeds into the Cup price slowly, through the standings, instead of in one move. The Wild's own pricing is covered in our Wild Stanley Cup odds report.
What to watch next
The first test is Saturday night at the Bell Centre, a 7 p.m. Eastern start and the third game of a four-game road trip.
After that, watch whether Makar resumes skating on schedule, any injured reserve placement, which would set a minimum absence, and the standings gap to Minnesota over the next month. Daily prices for every Avalanche game are on our NHL odds today page, and the full futures board on the Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison.
Method: Cup prices come from BetG8's live page; the game price is the midpoint of the best bid and ask on Polymarket. Injury details are as reported by NHL.com and The Gazette. BetG8 does not forecast results.
LIVE MARKETNHL: 2027 Stanley Cup ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- Stanley Cup odds, live
- NHL odds today
- MacKinnon Makar injury update: the Ottawa game
- Minnesota Wild Stanley Cup odds after the Kaprizov overtime winner
- Kalshi vs Polymarket odds, live
Frequently asked questions
How long is Nathan MacKinnon out?
Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said on November 14, 2026, that MacKinnon is expected to miss about a month with a lower-body injury. He was hurt on November 12 at Ottawa. That points to a return around the middle of December if the estimate holds.
How long is Cale Makar out?
Makar is expected to miss about two weeks with a soft-tissue lower-body injury, according to Bednar. The coach said Makar had been playing through the issue before it worsened in the November 12 game at Ottawa.
What are the Avalanche's Stanley Cup odds after the MacKinnon injury?
At 23:09 UTC on November 14, 2026, Colorado was 9.5% on Polymarket and 10.5% on Kalshi to win the 2027 Stanley Cup, third on the combined board and unchanged from the day before the timelines were announced. These are market prices, not predictions.
Sources
- NHL.com, MacKinnon, Makar injury update
- The Gazette (Colorado Springs), Nathan MacKinnon out a month, Cale Makar 2 weeks for Avalanche
- Polymarket, Avalanche vs. Canadiens, read 23:10 UTC, November 14, 2026
- BetG8, Stanley Cup odds, live, read 23:09 UTC, November 14, 2026
Market prices, not predictions or advice. 18+. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.