Fed's Collins says more rate hikes are appropriate soon as odds of a December 50 basis point move climb to about 10%
The remarks landed on a day already crowded with Fed commentary, including the public disagreement covered in our report on Bessent and Goolsbee, and hours after the October producer price data.
What happened
Collins spoke to Bloomberg Television on Friday, November 13, on the sidelines of a housing conference hosted by the Boston Fed, according to a Reuters report carried by Yahoo Finance and Business Recorder. Her message was that higher inflation means tighter policy is on the way, and that the timing is near: she said some additional firming of policy is appropriate soon.
She also suggested that her own view has shifted. Reuters reported that Collins described recent inflation data as unfavorable and said it shows price pressures spreading through the economy, and that a tighter path than the one she had in mind a couple of months ago may now be appropriate. That is a notable change of tone from an official who is not usually counted among the committee's most hawkish voices.
What she did not do is put a number on it. Collins said she did not want to get ahead of the committee on how high or how fast rates should go. She described her best case as a careful adjustment of policy, while allowing that there are scenarios in which she would see things differently. In opening remarks to the conference she argued that price stability is essential to a healthy housing sector even if tighter policy causes near-term pain for it, and she said financial markets appear to be functioning well.
The federal funds target range stands at 3.75% to 4.00%. Reuters noted that Fed Governor Christopher Waller raised the possibility of a half-point increase earlier in the week, and that investors broadly expect a quarter-point hike in December followed by another in January.
What the market is pricing
Prices are from BetG8's live Fed rate decision odds page, which reads Kalshi and Polymarket every five minutes. The first column is the reading published in our Bessent and Goolsbee report at 17:08 UTC, before the Collins headlines had been absorbed. The current columns are as of 20:08 UTC.
| Fed decision | Polymarket 17:08 UTC | Polymarket 20:08 UTC | Kalshi 20:08 UTC | Polymarket change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 9: hike of 50 bp or more | 4.7% | 9.7% | 11.5% | +5.0 pts |
| December 9: 25 bp hike | 91.5% | 87.5% | 87.5% | -4.0 pts |
| December 9: no change | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | -0.4 pts |
| January 2027: 25 bp hike | 57.5% | 59.5% | 58.5% | +2.0 pts |
| January 2027: no change | 40.5% | 41.5% | 41.5% | +1.0 pts |
The shift is almost entirely about size, not direction. The four points that came out of the quarter-point contract on Polymarket went into the larger hike, and the price of no change in December barely moved. Kalshi's half-point contract went from 5.5% at 17:08 UTC to 11.5%. Our markets desk read Polymarket at 11.2% at 18:42 UTC, so the price has eased a little since its afternoon high while Kalshi has held, leaving a gap of 1.8 points between the two venues.
Polymarket's December decision market shows $32.8 million in volume. Even after Friday's move, traders on both venues put the chance of a half-point step at roughly one in ten, which makes it a tail outcome and not the central case. The move cannot be pinned on Collins alone, since Waller's earlier comment and Friday's data were in the mix as well.
Equities were lower. At 20:08 UTC the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was at $753.55, down 0.47% on the day, and the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) was at $679.46, down 1.27%, according to Twelve Data. Technology shares were already under pressure from Friday's chip sell-off.
Why it matters
A December hike has been close to fully priced for days. The open questions are how large it will be and how many follow. Collins matters on both counts because of where she started. When an official who favored a gradual approach says the path may need to be tighter than she expected, it suggests that support for further tightening on the committee is broad and not limited to its most hawkish members. New York Fed President John Williams made a similar case on Thursday, as covered in our report on Williams.
The size of the move matters well beyond the bond market. Collins made the housing link herself: mortgage demand and construction are among the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy, and she argued that the short-term cost is worth paying for stable prices. Not everyone agrees. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued on Friday that the Fed should not tighten into an energy shock. BetG8 takes no position on which view is right; the table above shows only what traders are paying.
What to watch next
Minutes of the October meeting are due on November 18 and will show how widely a faster pace was discussed. The October PCE inflation report follows on November 25, the last major inflation reading before the committee meets on December 8 and 9. The decision is due on December 9 at 2 p.m. ET.
The contract to watch between now and then is the December hike of 50 basis points or more, which is where new information has been showing up first. Any further officials who echo Waller would matter more for that price than for the quarter-point contract. Our Federal Reserve topic page collects the related markets, and the October PPI report has the latest inflation detail.
Method and limits
Collins's statements are as reported by Reuters from the Bloomberg Television interview; we did not have access to a full transcript, so remarks are paraphrased. Kalshi and Polymarket prices come from BetG8's live page and will keep moving. ETF quotes are intraday and were read while the market was open. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8 or investment advice.
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Frequently asked questions
What did Susan Collins say about Fed rate hikes?
In a Bloomberg Television interview on November 13, 2026, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said some additional tightening of policy is appropriate soon, citing unfavorable inflation data and signs that price pressures are spreading. She declined to say how high or how fast rates should go.
What are the odds of a 50 basis point Fed hike in December 2026?
At 20:08 UTC on November 13, a hike of 50 basis points or more at the December 9 decision was priced at 9.7% on Polymarket and 11.5% on Kalshi, up from about 5% earlier in the day. A quarter-point hike was 87.5% on both venues. These are market prices, not predictions.
When is the next Fed rate decision?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on December 8 and 9, 2026, with the decision due on December 9 at 2 p.m. ET. The federal funds target range is currently 3.75% to 4.00%.
Sources
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Fed's Collins says more rate hikes are coming
- Reuters via Business Recorder, Fed's Collins says more rate hikes are coming
- crypto.news, Fed's Collins warns higher rates may be needed
- Kalshi and Polymarket, Fed decision markets, read 20:08 UTC via BetG8's live page
- Twelve Data, SPY and QQQ quotes, read 20:08 UTC
Market prices, not predictions or advice. 18+. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.