Patrick Mahomes elbow injury update: a full practice on Wednesday, and Polymarket moves the Chiefs to 9.6% while Kalshi holds at 7.5%
On Monday, Andy Reid called Mahomes day-to-day and said the news was "more positive" than negative, after a post-game MRI that, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport as reported by TSN, showed no major damage. Wednesday's report answered the main open question from that update: whether he would be limited or held out early in the week. ProFootballTalk says he has not missed any practice time and that he expects to focus on pain management, spending extra time at the facility and at home, before Sunday's game at Atlanta. CBS Sports describes him as continuing to play through the issue. Neither outlet reported a formal diagnosis beyond the MRI result.
What the market is pricing
Readings from BetG8's live boards and the Polymarket Gamma API at 09:16 UTC on November 12, 2026, against our November 10 readings (13:21 UTC):
| Market | Polymarket Nov 10 | Polymarket now | Kalshi Nov 10 | Kalshi now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs win Super Bowl LXI | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Patrick Mahomes 2026 NFL MVP | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Chiefs beat Falcons, Sunday (bid / ask) | n/a | 62% / 64% | n/a | n/a |
The Chiefs' 9.6% Polymarket price converts to roughly +940 in American odds, and the 7.5% Kalshi price to about +1230; BetG8's live Super Bowl odds board shows a blended figure of about +1073. The two-point gap between the venues is now one of the widest among contenders on that board. Buffalo (14.5% and 14.0%) and San Francisco (14.0% and 14.5%) lead the field on both venues. The Week 10 game market on Polymarket has Kansas City as a modest favorite at Atlanta, with the Chiefs side bid at 62 cents and offered at 64.
Why one venue moved and the other did not
A full practice mainly removes the short-term tail risk: a missed start against Atlanta, or a setback that turns a sore elbow into a multi-week absence. Polymarket traders appear to have priced that tail out, and the move from 8.5% to 9.6% roughly undoes the dip that followed the injury on Sunday night, when BetG8's newsroom read the Chiefs near 8.6%. Kalshi's price has sat at 7.5% through both of our readings, so it shows no injury discount to recover. Divergences of this size between the two venues often narrow within a few days as arbitrage traders work the spread; our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison tracks the gap live.
The rest of the Chiefs' week
The injury report has other moving parts. ProFootballTalk lists right tackle Jaylon Moore (ankle) and defensive lineman Peter Woods (neck) as not practicing, defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott (knee) as limited on his return from injured reserve, and Travis Kelce (ankle), Rashee Rice (knee) and Xavier Worthy (hamstring) among the full participants. CBS Sports notes that receiver Josh Downs, acquired from the Colts at the trade deadline, is not on the report; the trade is covered in our deadline roundup. A missing right tackle matters for a quarterback managing a sore throwing elbow, because protection affects how often he is hit.
What to watch next
Thursday and Friday practice reports, and whether Mahomes carries any game designation into the weekend; a downgrade to limited would be the first sign that the elbow is not settling. On the markets, watch whether Kalshi follows Polymarket upward or Polymarket gives back the move, and how the Falcons game line trades once Moore's status is clear. Kickoff is Sunday, November 15.
Method and limits
Super Bowl and MVP prices come from BetG8's live tool pages, which read Polymarket and Kalshi every five minutes, so a reading can lag by up to that interval. The game price is the Polymarket order book bid and ask from the public Gamma API. American odds are converted from implied probability without removing any margin; see implied probability explained. Injury details are as reported by ProFootballTalk, CBS Sports and TSN; the Chiefs had not published a diagnosis. Prices are not forecasts and nothing here is betting advice.
LIVE MARKETPro Football 2027 ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- Super Bowl odds, live on Kalshi and Polymarket
- Mahomes elbow injury update: day-to-day, Chiefs at 8%
- NFL MVP odds, live
- Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
- Trade deadline Super Bowl odds roundup
Frequently asked questions
Is Patrick Mahomes playing against the Falcons?
He was a full participant in Wednesday's practice on November 11, 2026, and said he is "in a great spot," according to ProFootballTalk. The Chiefs had not given him a game designation as of that report.
What happened to Mahomes' elbow?
He hurt his right elbow in the November 8 win over the Jets and finished the game. A post-game MRI showed no major damage, according to NFL Network as reported by TSN, and Andy Reid called him day-to-day.
What are the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds now?
At 09:16 UTC on November 12, 2026, Polymarket priced the Chiefs at 9.6% and Kalshi at 7.5% to win Super Bowl LXI. Those are market prices, not forecasts.
Sources
- NBC Sports ProFootballTalk, Patrick Mahomes practiced in full on Wednesday: "I'm in a great spot"
- CBS Sports, Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes: Practices fully Wednesday
- TSN, Chiefs QB Mahomes day-to-day with elbow injury
- Polymarket, Chiefs vs. Falcons, read 09:16 UTC, November 12, 2026
18+ only. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice, and prices are not predictions. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.