Fed Logan wants two more rate hikes, Paulson prefers gradual steps and Bowman waits for data, while January hike odds stay near a coin flip
Logan and Paulson are both voting members of the FOMC in 2026, and Bowman votes as a Board member, so all three will be in the room at the December 8-9 meeting. Logan, speaking at an energy conference hosted by the Dallas and Kansas City Fed banks, said "excess inflation is unacceptable" and that "it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the FOMC has moved so far this fall," according to Reuters. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September and skipped October, a pause Logan supported at the time. Paulson, speaking in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, said October CPI showed "inflation pressures are still very much with us," put underlying inflation at 2.5% to 3%, and said she would move faster if inflation expectations, wages or underlying inflation rise, per Reuters via Yahoo Finance.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket prices are midpoints from the public Gamma API at 07:25 UTC on November 11; Kalshi prices are bid/ask midpoints from its public API at 07:26 UTC:
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| December: hike 25 bp | 85.5% | 84.5% |
| December: hike 50 bp or more | 9.7% | 11.0% |
| December: no change | 3.9% | 4.5% |
| January 2027: hike 25 bp | 47.5% | 48.5% |
| January 2027: no change | 52.5% | 50.5% |
| January 2027: hike more than 25 bp | 1.5% | 3.5% |
Both venues put some December hike at about 95%, and the January market is close to even. Those figures are almost exactly where they stood on Tuesday evening, according to earlier readings by BetG8's macro desk, which shows that traders treated the three speeches as broadly balancing each other. The live board is on our Fed rate decision odds page, and yesterday's background is in our January coin-flip report.
Three voters, three tones
Logan's call for "at least two more" hikes is the most direct statement yet that January is a live meeting. If December delivers one hike, her framework implies another soon after. Paulson's language points the same way on direction but not on speed: "gradual" usually means one step per meeting at most, and she tied any faster move to specific data. That is a counterweight to Governor Christopher Waller, who said on Tuesday that a 50 bp December move should be considered if core CPI rose 0.3% or more, as it did, according to Reuters.
Bowman, in a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, said inflation pressures "have persisted for longer than I had hoped and have shown recent signs of broadening," and estimated that 12-month core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.3% in October. She said policy "is not on a preset course" and that she wants to see the October PCE report and the November jobs report before the meeting. The prices fit that mix: a quarter point in December is the base case, a half point stays near 10%, and January depends on data not yet released.
Bonds, AI stocks and the risk Bowman named
Bowman also listed "a large correction in equity valuations, if returns on AI investment fall short of expectations" as a risk to growth. That warning landed in a weak tape for tech. Nvidia closed Tuesday at $168.89, down 5.5% and $4.62 above its 52-week low of $164.27, on a second day of losses tied to the board review of chief executive Jensen Huang, covered in our Nvidia report. QQQ closed at $674.76, down 0.7% and 11.5% below its 52-week high, and the long-bond ETF TLT fell 1.3% to $80.88, per Twelve Data closing quotes. Trading Economics puts the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.99% for November 10, up 10 basis points, after it briefly moved above 5% during the session.
What to watch next
October PCE and the November jobs report are the two releases Bowman named, and both land before December 9. A firm core PCE reading would test whether the 50 bp contracts can climb back above the 10% to 11% range. Watch the January contract most closely: it is the one that turns Logan's "two more" into a price, and a sustained move above 50% on both venues would mean traders expect back-to-back hikes. Further Fed speeches this week could move it in either direction.
Method and limits
Polymarket prices are midpoints of best bid and ask from the public Gamma API at 07:25 UTC on November 11, 2026; Kalshi prices are bid/ask midpoints from the public Kalshi trade API at 07:26 UTC. Earlier readings come from BetG8's macro desk. Stock prices are Twelve Data closing quotes for November 10. Speech quotes are from the Federal Reserve's published text (Bowman) and Reuters reports (Logan, Paulson, Waller). Prices are not forecasts and nothing here is investment advice.
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Frequently asked questions
What did Lorie Logan say about rate hikes?
On November 10, 2026, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed needs to implement at least two more 25 basis point rate increases and that it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter, according to Reuters.
What are the odds of a Fed hike in January 2027?
At 07:25 to 07:26 UTC on November 11, 2026, a 25 bp January hike was 47.5% on Polymarket and 48.5% on Kalshi. These are market prices, not predictions.
Did Bowman back a December rate hike?
No. Bowman said there is still work to do on inflation but that policy is not on a preset course, and she wants to see October PCE and November jobs data before the December 8-9 meeting.
Sources
- Reuters via SRN News, Fed's Logan calls for two more rate hikes, possibly rapidly
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Fed's Paulson calls for gradual rate hikes
- Federal Reserve Board, Bowman, The U.S. Economy and Considerations for Monetary Policy
- Reuters via SRN News, Fed's Waller plans to support at least a quarter-point rate hike in December
- Trading Economics, United States 10-year bond yield
- Polymarket, Fed decision in December?, read 07:25 UTC, November 11, 2026
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