Fed rate hike odds for January 2027 after Hammack backs steady hikes and the 10-year yield climbs back above 5%: Polymarket and Kalshi now disagree by 10 points
Earlier today we reported that January hike odds had moved above 50% on both venues. This update adds two things that arrived after that read: Hammack's remarks, which are the clearest description yet from a voter of what a series of quarter-point moves would look like, and a bond market that pushed the benchmark yield back through 5%. It also shows that the two venues, which agreed closely at midday, have since split.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket and Kalshi prices read directly from their public APIs at about 18:20 UTC on November 12, with BetG8's live Fed rate decision odds page at 16:46 UTC for comparison. Kalshi values are the midpoint of bid and ask.
| Outcome | Polymarket 18:20 | Kalshi 18:20 | BetG8 page 16:46 (PM / Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2027: hike 25 bp | 60.5% | 50.0% | 56.5% / 58.0% |
| January 2027: no change | 34.5% | 50.5% | 41.5% / 39.5% |
| January 2027: hike 50 bp or more | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0.8% / 2.5% |
| December 9: hike 25 bp | 90.5% | 89.5% | 90.5% / 89.5% |
| December 9: hike 50 bp or more | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% / 7.5% |
| December 9: no change | 2.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% / 4.5% |
December is settled on both venues: a quarter-point hike near 90% and a half-point move below 8%. The live question is January. Polymarket kept climbing through the afternoon, while Kalshi's January hike contract was quoted at 49 cents bid and 51 cents offered, down from 58% on our 16:46 read. Kalshi's January book is much thinner than its December book, with about 14,000 contracts traded in 24 hours on the hike side against hundreds of thousands on December outcomes, so a few orders can move it. Our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison tracks gaps like this one.
What Hammack said
Speaking at Ohio State University, Hammack said inflation pressures are "moving in the wrong direction" and that "we need to move to a restrictive stance of policy to help bring inflation back down to that 2% objective," Reuters reported. She warned that otherwise "an inflationary mindset could start taking hold." She did not argue for bigger steps, saying smaller, more frequent increases are "less disruptive to the overall economy," and that she does not think the Fed is behind the curve today. She also stressed that her views are conditional expectations, not commitments.
That framing matters for the January contract. A path of steady quarter points, rather than one large move, is exactly the scenario in which a December hike is followed by another in January. Reuters notes Hammack dissented in favor of tighter policy at both the July and October holds, after the Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, so her view is not new, but it is now on the record after the hot October CPI. We covered the earlier hawkish remarks in our Logan, Paulson and Bowman odds piece.
The 10-year is back above 5%
Trading Economics shows the US 10-year yield at 5.11% on November 12, up about 12 basis points from the previous session and at a three-week high. Mortgage News Daily lists Wednesday's close at 4.985%. Most of the move came in the US session: investingLive's European wrap had the 10-year only 1.1 bp higher at 5.00% and the 2-year at 4.76% earlier in the day, and described the bond market as staying under pressure after this week's inflation data. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was at $79.84, down 1.33% on the day, at 18:18 UTC per Twelve Data.
Data offered little relief. Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 in the week ended November 7, above the 195,000 consensus, from a revised 191,000, according to RTTNews. That is still a low level of layoffs, which does little to argue for a pause.
What to watch next
Watch whether the Polymarket and Kalshi January prices converge. If Kalshi recovers toward 60%, today's dip was a thin-book move; if Polymarket falls back toward 50%, the afternoon rally was the outlier. More Fed speakers before the December 8-9 meeting, the November jobs report and November CPI are the main scheduled inputs. A 10-year that holds above 5% would keep the pressure on rate-sensitive markets such as mortgages.
Method and limits
Polymarket prices are the midpoint of best bid and best ask from the public Gamma API; Kalshi prices are bid and ask midpoints from its public trade API, both read at about 18:20 UTC on November 12, 2026. The comparison column is BetG8's live page, stamped 16:46 UTC. Yields come from Trading Economics, investingLive and Mortgage News Daily, and differ slightly by source and time. Quotes from Hammack are as reported by Reuters. These are market prices, not forecasts by BetG8.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in January 2027?
At about 18:20 UTC on November 12, 2026, a 25 bp hike at the January 2027 meeting traded at 60.5% on Polymarket and about 50% on Kalshi. These are market prices, not predictions.
What did Beth Hammack say about rate hikes?
According to Reuters, the Cleveland Fed president said policy needs to become restrictive to bring inflation back to 2%, but that smaller, more frequent increases are less disruptive than aggressive moves, and that the Fed is not behind the curve.
Is the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%?
Yes. Trading Economics showed the 10-year yield at 5.11% on November 12, 2026, up about 12 basis points on the day and at a three-week high, after a 4.985% close on November 11.
Sources
- Reuters via Investing.com, Fed's Hammack signals support for gradual rate-hike path
- Trading Economics, United States 10-year bond yield, read November 12, 2026
- investingLive, European FX news wrap, 12 Nov
- RTTNews, U.S. initial jobless claims climb more than expected
- Mortgage News Daily, 10-year Treasury yield history
- BetG8, Fed rate decision odds, live, read 16:46 UTC, November 12, 2026
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