Jensen Huang resignation odds: Polymarket swings to 77% as Nvidia's board meets on his future with no decision announced

News analysis · Updated November 12, 2026 · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions · By BetG8 Editorial · Prediction Markets

The story has moved fast. On Sunday, November 8, Nvidia's board said independent directors and outside counsel would investigate reports that Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort, and said it had "no reason to believe" national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised, as covered in our earlier report on the board investigation. At that point Polymarket priced an exit by year-end at 14.5%. On Wednesday, Fortune relayed the WSJ report that the company was preparing to oust him, and The New York Times reported a second relationship involving another Nvidia employee. Bloomberg reported that the board is working with an outside firm to identify possible replacements, including a temporary chief, according to Saxo's summary. Nvidia has not confirmed any of these reports.

What the market is pricing

Both venues now treat an exit as the more likely outcome, but they define it differently. Polymarket asks whether a resignation or removal is announced by each date; Kalshi asks when Huang leaves as CEO.

The Polymarket event has traded about $17.2 million in the past 24 hours, more than $4 million of it in the December 31 contract. The near-dated contracts are the most telling: Polymarket prices a 58% chance of an announcement by Friday, November 13, and Kalshi 61% for a departure before Saturday. That says traders expect a quick resolution if it comes, not a slow process. You can compare the two venues on BetG8's Kalshi vs Polymarket odds page.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed: the board's November 8 statement and investigation, and Huang's staff memo in which he acknowledged being unfaithful to his wife and said he took full responsibility. Reported but not confirmed by Nvidia: the WSJ account that the company is preparing to remove him, the Reuters source on the board meeting, and Bloomberg's account of a replacement search. Under Nvidia's bylaws, a majority of the 11 directors can remove the CEO with or without cause, according to the Daily Star's Reuters-based report; Huang is the only director who is not independent, and he owns about 3.6% of the company. No succession plan has been published.

The stock and the analysts

Nvidia closed Wednesday at $173.73, up 2.9% in a broad chip rally led by CoreWeave, which jumped about 25% on a raised full-year revenue outlook of $13.0 billion to $13.3 billion, per Saxo. The WSJ report landed after the close. At 09:15 UTC Thursday, Twelve Data showed NVDA at $161.86 in premarket trading, 6.8% below Wednesday's close and under its prior 52-week low of $164.27; Fortune reported a drop of more than 9% at one point after hours. Two brokers have moved: Baird analyst Tristan Gerra cut Nvidia to Neutral on Wednesday, citing pending US government probes, uncertainty over Huang's tenure and a new H200 export ban to China, per Yahoo Finance, and Bernstein moved it to Market Perform with a $200 price target, down from $400, per Saxo. TipRanks reported Nasdaq 100 futures about 1% lower early Thursday.

What to watch next

Any statement from Nvidia's board is the obvious trigger: an announcement would resolve the near-dated contracts within hours, while a statement of support would likely push them sharply lower. Nvidia reports quarterly results on November 17, which gives the board a short window. Lawmakers have also threatened to subpoena Huang if he does not attend a closed-door briefing, according to The Next Web. Watch the gap between the November 13 and December 31 contracts: if it widens, traders are betting on a delay rather than a reversal.

Method and limits

Polymarket prices come from the public Gamma API and Kalshi prices from its public trade API, both read at 09:15 to 09:16 UTC on November 12; the 04:43 UTC reading is from BetG8's newsroom log. The two venues use different resolution wording, so their prices are not directly interchangeable; see how prediction markets resolve. Board and company details are as reported by the outlets cited and have not been confirmed by Nvidia unless stated. Prices are not forecasts and nothing here is investment advice.

Related

• Nvidia board investigation: Huang stays CEO during the probe
• Kalshi vs Polymarket odds, live
• How do prediction markets resolve?
• Implied probability explained
• Fed rate decision odds

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds Jensen Huang resigns or is removed?

At 09:16 UTC on November 12, 2026, Polymarket priced an announced resignation or removal by December 31 at 77%, and Kalshi priced Huang leaving as CEO before January 1, 2027 at 79%. These are market prices, not predictions.

Has Nvidia's board removed Jensen Huang?

No decision had been announced as of Thursday morning, November 12, according to Reuters and The Next Web. The Wall Street Journal reported the company was preparing to remove him; Nvidia has not confirmed that report.

Why did the Huang exit odds jump?

The Polymarket contract rose from about 16% to a peak of 83.5% within a day after the WSJ report, a Reuters report that the board would meet Wednesday to decide his future, and a New York Times report of a second relationship.

Sources

• The Daily Star (Reuters), Nvidia board to decide if Jensen Huang stays or goes
• Fortune, Report: Nvidia preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang
• The Next Web, Jensen Huang's fate hangs on Nvidia's board after overnight meeting
• Saxo, Asia Market Quick Take, 12 November 2026
• Yahoo Finance, Analyst downgrades Nvidia stock amid Jensen Huang woes
• TipRanks, U.S. tech stocks fall as Nvidia board weighs Jensen Huang's future
• Polymarket, Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...?, read 09:16 UTC, November 12, 2026

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